KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

A sharp cold front will usher in winter-like temperatures back into Acadiana early Tuesday morning.  Highs Wednesday may not make it out of the 40s despite sunshine returning by the afternoon.  It will be dry in New Orleans too for Tuesday afternoon/evening for the Saints Parade but dress warmly as temperatures will stay in the 40s accompanied by a blustery northwest wind.  Temperatures will likely drop to near or below the freezing mark in Acadiana for Wednesday morning so it’s time again to tend to the tender vegetation.  Wednesday will be cool, partly sunny and dry, but clouds will be increasing late in the day.  It will get interesting Thursday as a quick-developing storm system will likely bring cold rains to the area.  This may bring winter weather conditions to the northern part of the state and as close as Central Louisiana at the onset of the precipitation and perhaps when things wind down Thursday night.  If the track of the developing surface low goes farther south than is currently forecast we could see a forecast tilted to some sort of wintry mix.  Right now though we’ll go with very chilly rains with at least 1-2″ of rain possible…if not maybe a little more.  In the wake of Thursday’s system cold and dry weather should follow that will likely carry us through much of the Mardi Gras holiday weekend.  Showers could return though for Fat Tuesday…so stay tuned to KATC for that, updates on the weather system tonight, and then for the one on Thursday…as always the forecast is subject to change!

Soaking rains will develop across Acadiana overnight with locally heavy downpours likely by Thursday morning.  The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for most of Acadiana for the possibility of “run-off” problems.  Per the NWS, rainfall totals will generally be inthe 2-4″ range, but isolated spots may see more than that.  Fortunately we have had a comparatively dry January after such a wet December so the ground will likely take most of the coming rainfall.  But as always, it’s not totally about how much, but what period of time the rain comes in.  Upper level dynamics combined with deep precipitable atmospheric moisture will be efficient in producing some heavy downpours.  In addition, there will likely be some embedded thunder, especially closer to the coastal parishes.  Areas that see repeated heavy downpours and embedded storms will be vulnerable to some street flooding…perhaps something more if rain totals exceed the current projections.  The enclosed graphic highlights the rain potential based on our late afternoon model run.  Any severe storms generated by this system should stay offshore but they could clip the extreme southeastern part of the state during the afternoon.  Offshore, very rough conditions with near gale winds, up to 8-14ft seas and minor coastal flooding will be possible as tides rise to 1-2ft above predicted levels.  The rains will taper in most areas to patchy drizzle/mist Thursday evening with lingering cloud cover likely through Friday morning.  Cool sun is still with us for the weekend with a milder Monday  followed by a moderate cold front late Monday that should keep us quite chilly through mid-next week.  The bottom line for the near-term-keep that umbrella handy and be ready for the Gulf of Mexico’s version of another “Nor’easter”.

Only changes to the on-going forecast are that the computer models are trending a little slower on the arrival of rain and storms Friday.  A vigorous frontal trough will approach by midday Friday with showers and storms likely anytime from the morning through the early afternoon hours with a shield of rain likely behind the front Friday afternoon into the early evening hours.  Rain total projections remain in the 1-2″ range for most of Acadiana Friday.  As Dave mentioned earlier, it appears that any severe weather threat will be confined to Texas but there could be some healthy storms running ahead of the cold front in Acadiana but instability remains questionable while upper level winds remain healthy but should be weakening as the system moves over Louisiana.  Although our highs on Friday will likely be in the mid-upper 60s temperatures will likely drop sharply by late Friday afternoon into Friday evening with lows Saturday morning dipping into the upper 30s with wind chills likely 10 degrees colder.  Winter-time temperatures are likely this weekend with highs not making it out of the 40s Saturday and barely reaching the lower 50s Sunday while lows Sunday and Monday mornings will likely be near the freezing mark.  Milder temperatures will return for next week but an active El Nino enhanced sub-tropical jet-stream will likely make for plenty of cloud cover and occasional rain chances starting late Monday and continuing for much of the week.

A strengthening low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico this evening will advance northeastward Saturday and head toward the Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon.  Breezy conditions with period of rain will be likely through Saturday afternoon with activity likely to taper off Saturday night.  Rough conditions offshore have been reported this afternoon with sustained winds as high as 35-40kts with gusts to near 60kts.  Additional strong storms that develop this evening and tomorrow will insure that very rough conditions will continue through Saturday.  Meanwhile inland most of the precipitation will stay as rain with general accumulations through Saturday evening in the 1-2″ range but isolated amounts to 3″ will be possible for St Mary Parish.  Heavier rains and the slight risk of severe weather with this system may clip extreme Southeastern Louisiana and head toward the Florida Panhandle.  Most of the rain generated in Acadiana through Saturday will be driven by the upper level low that is guiding this system.  The upper low won’t clear the area until Sunday morning.  So after the rains end there will likely be lingering drizzle/mist and perhaps some fog into Saturday night.  Lingering cloud cover Sunday morning should yield to partial clearing and some sun Sunday afternoon.  Temperatures will stay in the upper 40s to lower 50s through Saturday evening dropping into the low-mid 40s for Sunday morning.  Milder conditions are possible for Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to near 60.  Spring-like conditions with mostly sunny skies are anticipated for Monday and Tuesday of next week with highs pushing into the mid-upper 60s.  The next weather-maker will arrive for next Wednesday likely producing a round of thunderstorms.  Even warmer temperatures should follow late next week into the weekend with highs pushing into the low-mid 70s!  Another round of even healthier (possibly severe)  storms may follow for next Sunday.  As we start to see the warmer temperatures ahead of frontal troughs over the next few weeks the risk of severe weather will increase with each system.  Normally our spring severe weather season begins in the latter part of February, but given this El Nino winter pattern it is not unusual to have more frequent severe weather events starting as early as late January.  At least for this weekend it will just be a rain event.  Have a great weekend and Geaux Saints!  Rob

After nine straight mornings with sub-freezing temperatures in Acadiana a moderating temperature trend is expected while a storm system begins to develop in the Gulf tomorrow and Friday.  High and mid-level clouds should keep our temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s tonight with highs Thursday approaching the lower 60s under mostly cloudy skies.  An upper level disturbance in Texas is helping to induce the cloudiness this evening and will continue to do so Thursday.  Underneath these mid-level clouds there will be the possibility of a few sprinkles Thursday afternoon and evening but our best rain chances will likely hold-off until Friday night and Saturday as a stronger disturbace in the SW US helps to deepen surface low pressure in the Gulf.  The track of this storm system will put the low south of the Louisiana coast by Saturday morning trekking toward the northeastern Gulf Sunday.  This path should keep the heavier showers and storms well offshore or to the east of us with mostly light to moderate rain in-store for Acadiana.  Expect lots is clouds and breezy easterly winds on Friday with increasing rain chances developing late in the day or into the evening.  Periods of rain are a good bet  for Saturday.  Rain totals should be no higher than 1-2″ other than in St Mary Parish where isolated higher amounts will be possible.  Portions of Southeastern Louisiana could see a fair bit more depending on the track of the storm and its associated precipitation field.  So expect on and off rain with lots of clouds and maybe some fog Saturday (while your watching the Saints game!) with clearing conditions likely for Sunday.  It should be partly sunny and milder early next week with highs pushing into the mid-60s.  The next storm system will likely present a good chance of healthier thunderstorms Wednesday with the following weather system bringing the threat of stormy weather back to the area for following weekend.

Rain and embedded rumbles of thunder will be likely for our Wednesday as low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico this Tuesday evening.  The surface low this time around won’t be a deep one but this system has plenty of upper support which will likely generate rain and elevated embedded thunderstorms, especially for our Wednesday afternoon.  Since this system is more elevated in nature we are not expecting any organized severe weather.  Estimating rainfall totals has become quite problematic with almost all of the models coming in with rain totals of an inch or less today.  But as we have been saying all along in this El Nino enhanced winter…”go with a wetter forecast”.  With that being said, rain accumulations should be generally between .10-.25″ overnight with 1-2″ the best forecast at this point for Wednesday.  The rains should stay below flooding thresholds, but if the embedded storms can get cranking and train over a particular area then isolated amounts up to 3″ could be possible.  The rain and storms should end sometime tomorrow evening with lingering clouds and fog possible for Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Thursday should bring mostly cloudy skies with a few intervals of sun and mild temperatures, but a fairly strong cold front should push across the area for New Year’s Eve possibly engendering a few light showers.  Friday and Saturday will be blustery with highs ranging in the upper 40s to lower 50s while lows drop into the low-mid 30s.  Next week continues to look rather interesting with the coldest air of the season edging into our area.  Combine that with an hyper-active sub-tropical jet stream and then wintry weather could become an issue.  Right now the models have been tilting toward a drier but cold solution for early-mid next week…but we’ll see what Mr. El Nino and friends may have in store.  The bottom line though is that we may indeed see lows dropping into the mid-upper 20s by next Wednesday morning with highs struggling to make the 40s…stay tuned!

The parade of El Nino enhanced Gulf of Mexico low pressure systems will continue this week with another system developing Tuesday/Wednesday.  An upper level low/trough off the coast of Baja/California will make a bee-line for the area developing a low pressure system off the Texas Coast Tuesday.  This will bring clouds back into the area Tuesday with soaking rains likely developing Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Current computer models are indicating efficient delivery of the rain process which will likely lead to 2-3″ of rain to the area with the possibility of more based that nearly every storm system over the last month has come in more dynamic than advertised by the models.  There shouldn’t be any severe weather with this system but embedded storms are certainly possible especially over the coastal parishes and Southeastern Louisiana, where 2-4″ or more will be possible.  Like nearly every system this year it will be another rough one offshore mid-week.  So it looks like we’ll be finishing off a record wet December with more wetness unfortunately.  Thursday should be dry and mild but quick-moving showers will probably redevelop for New Year’s Eve with a strong cold front.  It will be nice and cold with sunny skies for the first few days of the new year with light freezes possible come Saturday and Sunday mornings.  Rob

Finally the sun made an appearance Friday setting the stage for a very nice weekend.  Lots of sun mixed with some high level cirrus clouds are in the forecast for Acadiana’s Saturday with unabated sun expected for Sunday.  Temperatures will cool as high pressure builds in throughout the weekend with highs cooling a few more degrees for Sunday.  Temperatures Saturday night and Sunday night may approach the frost zone so make sure the tender vegetation is protected…especially for Monday morning.  Sunny and mild conditions with highs reaching back into the 60s are expected for Monday afternoon.  Stormy conditions will likely take shape for mid-next week…more below.  Drier weather with chilly conditions should return for Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and and hopefully the following weekend.

We certainly do not need any more rain this month…record breaking rainfall for December in New Iberia is officially at 14.20″.  Some spots in Iberia and St Mary Parish (as well as much of Eastern Louisiana through New Orleans) have been even wetter with 15-20″ hot-spots.  Rainfall totals in Lafayette are approaching 9″.  Unfortanuetly there will be at least another two wet and stormy systems in the offing before the month ends.  It has also been a dreary month with just three days of sun so far this month with eleven days of wet to very wet weather.  At least this weekend (and hopefully Christmas and next weekend) will be a little a little payback!   

The next weather trouble-maker is taking shape for mid-next week with the threat of heavy rainfall and this time around, severe weather.  While early in the forecast game we could see a significant tornadic event for Louisiana by Tuesday night or Wednesday…so stay tuned.  Rob

The “El Nino-enhanced” active sub-tropical jetstream will likely keep the clouds with us through mid-week with rain likely to return for Thursday.  We certainly don’t need any more rain with our grounds at complete saturation but at least the next weather system should keep the heavier rains offshore with mostly light to moderate rain expected with the next system.  Area-wide rain totals from yesterday and last night were generally in the 1-3″ range with coastal hot-spots of 4-6″ found in Vermilion, Iberia, St Mary and St Martin (Upper and Lower) Parishes.  Fortunately there were no major reports of flooding in homes in Acadiana but that wasn’t the case apparently over eastern Louisiana.  breezy and quite cool weather will stay with us for Wednesday with a few breaks in the clouds possible but not likely…in fact we probably won’t see much sun until the weekend.  As I mentioned earlier, rain will return Thursday as yet another low pressure system gets cranked up in the western Gulf of Mexico.  This system should stay a little farther offshore bring mostly light to moderate over-running rains to the area…but once again the coastal parishes will have the best opportunity for more soaking rain…no break for the weary.  Lingering clouds, drier and decidely colder weather should move in for Friday into the weekend with plenty of sun expected for both Saturday and Sunday.  Colder, slightly modified arctic air should move in Saturday keeping our highs near 50 with overnight lows possibly near freezing or slightly below by Sunday morning.  It looks dry at least through early-mid next week but if I were making a forecast off of the long-range models today I would be guessing cloudy, cool and occasionally wet for Christmas Eve/Day time-frame…but that will likely change…so stay tuned!

Busy in the WeatherLab again today…here’s the latest crawl we are running on air…FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS are in effect through 1015pm for LAFAYETTE, VERMILION, ST MARTIN, IBERIA and ST MARY PARISHES…A FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for all of Acadiana through Tuesday…Locally heavy thunderstorms should continue over southeastern portions of Acadiana this evening and will redevelop overnight through tomorrow in other locations…Activity will be capable of producing 3-5 inches of rain in just a few hours resulting in localized street flooding…Isolated spots may see 4-6 inches or more through tomorrow which may result in more serious flooding…

Upper level forcing will keep showers and storms with us through tomorrow with ample lift behind a cool front (keeping us wet) that will push across the area early Tuesday morning.  Temperatures will drop nicely through the 50s Tuesday and into the low-mid 40s for Wednesday morning.  The clouds will likely stay with us behind the front with yet another low pressure system forming in the Gulf Wednesday/Thursday.  Patchy light rain or drizzle will likely move back into the area for late Wednesday with a round of rain possible through Thursday.  There are hints that the next weather system may stay far enough offshore to warrant lower rain chances mid-week, but recent weather patterns dictate a wetter forecast to be the most prudent at this time.  It should finally clear out and dry out for Friday into the weekend!