Addendum to this blog entry…surprise shower activity on December 31st brought 0.09″ of rain officially to Lafayette, making 2011 the 2nd driest of all time with year end totals unofficially at 35.88″.

 While the Japanese earthquake and tsunami was the natural disaster story of the year in 2011, in the U.S. droughts, floods, fires, very deadly tornado outbreaks, an East Coast earthquake and Hurricane Irene composed most of the weather/disaster headlines nationally.

Locally in Acadiana, there were some major headlines as well with a couple of weather stories related to climate rather than individual events.

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles summarizes many of the specific weather events in Acadiana with some of the top stories this year involving an ice storm, tornadoes, a river flood “that wasn’t”, a “beneficial” tropical storm and all-time records for the hottest summer and the driest year. 

The first of two deadly events of the year involved an ice storm on February 3 and 4th laying down a glaze of ice 1/4″ or more across portions of Acadiana along and north of the I-10 corridor that left more than 26,000 without power and numerous traffic accidents causing one fatality. 

About a month later a severe weather outbreak produced at least 4 tornadoes in Jeff Davis and Acadia Parishes including an EF2 tornado that struck Rayne. The Rayne tornado produced 111-135mph winds damaging or destroying more than 600 homes and responsible for 12 injuries and one death. The tornadic damage cost were estimated in the tens of millions.

This was the beginning of a very deadly, record breaking tornado season in the U.S. with the Mississippi and Missouri devastating EF4/5 tornadoes responsible for taking hundreds of lives and producing hundreds of millions of dollars in damage-swaths.

While a drought continued in Acadiana from the previous year, this spring we found ourselves dealing with a potential “flood of our generation” as water rose to dangerous levels in the Mississippi and Atchafalaya River Basins.

Spring floods across the Central and Northern U.S. manifested in some of the highest levels recorded in the Lower Mississippi River in April and May. This resulted in the opening of the Morganza Spillway for the first time since 1973 to relieve Mississippi River pressure from Baton Rouge to New Orleans dumping excess water into the Atchafalaya Swamp.

Fortunately the river levees held and predicted flooding inundations by the Army Corps of Engineers never materialized across both river basins.  Thanks to the ongoing drought, the Atchafalaya Basin absorbed and held delivery of more than 50 Superdomes worth of water per day for several weeks as water levels met or exceeded 1973 levels.

Outside of large tracts of farmland and crops being lost fortunately there were very few homes and camps inundated by the flood water, but preparing for the flood was quite costly for many.

The Atchafalaya Flood had some positive effects helping recharge portions of the swamp and build new wetland areas along the immediate Acadiana Coast at the Atchafalaya River outlet, but the effects of additional pollutants in the Basin, if any, from the Mississippi River has yet to be determined.

The threat of flooding from the river basins eased by mid-June as heat increased and drought worsened across Acadiana.

The summer of 2011 went into the record books as the hottest on record in 118 years with June, July and August temperatures collectively averaging roughly 3 degrees above normal. Daytime highs this summer were generally 1-2 degrees above normal with afternoon heat much more expansive with the lack of frequency of typical scattered showers and storms that the area normally enjoys during the hot summer months.

Interestingly enough Acadiana’s overnight lows were even warmer averaging 4-5 degrees above normal which was likely related to less night-time evaporative cooling from less rainfall.

Heat waves and droughts work hand and hand and feed off each other, and this year that was especially true for Louisiana into Texas.

With impending tropical weather threatening Acadiana this weekend I wanted remind everyone to stay apprised of the weather conditions very closely as there will likely be big changes ahead.  Part of that obviously (or hopefully) is watching KATC TV and following us on katc.com.

In addition our weather page, you can find pertinent links to very important web-sites on our Hurricane Center Page.  Our hurricane Center includes a tracking map and links to the local National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center and Emergency Preparedness information.  These links are all essential to have on hand during a storm.

During the last two plus years I have found Facebook and Twitter as excellent tools for not only disseminating information but gathering it.  They both have strong and weak points, but Facebook in particular I think is important to have on hand, and on your smart-phone, for a hurricane or any emergency situation where traditional lines of communication may be compromised.

Facebook is easy to use and it’s a great way to stay in contact with loved ones and friends…and say what you will about social media, I believe at the very least, it is a great tool in an emergency situation.

During any emergency KATC will be broadcasting live and streaming on the web on katc.com, but you can also follow us on twitter too.  The “tweets” from the Weather Lab meteorologists can be followed right on our weather page so you don’t even have to mess with setting that up if you don’t want to.

On Facebook, I would highly recommend following KATC’s page for the latest news, Dave Baker, Natalie Noah and me (Rob) for the latest weather updates.  If you click on the aforementioned links make sure you “like” the page to get our information streaming to your home page.

Good luck with the storm this weekend and for the rest of hurricane season.  Rob

A strong squall line pushed through Acadiana this morning ahead of a cool front that will insure a nice Friday.  A few storms became severe this morning as several bowing storms (an/or mesocyclones) brought downburst winds to portions of the area.  Wind gusts were estimated by the National Weather Service near 80mph near Iota with gusts as high as 90mph just north of Opelousas.  We also had a number of reports of some small hail.  Just another highlight of why any fronts we see this time of year through April garner plenty of respect (see my last blog entry).  As quickly as the activity moved in, it pushed out ushering in  breezy sunshine and temperatures in the low-mid 70s this afternoon.  Cooler conditions are anticipated for tonight with some clouds possibly rolling into the northern parishes overnight.  Look for mostly sunny and pleasant conditions for Friday with highs in the upper 60s.  This weekend should be a good one with the only caveat being another frontal trough that will push through the area Saturday evening/overnight.  Although the quality of moisture return from the Gulf is in question, there will be a slight risk of showers and storms Saturday evening…and if storms do get going there may be a few healthy ones.  The greatest risk of any severe weather should be well to the north of Acadiana…but we’ll see.  Once again this system will be quick-moving so look for fair to partly cloudy, breezy and warm conditions for both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the low-mid 70s.  Breezy southerly winds Saturday will stay breezy on Sunday, but will shift from a northwesterly direction.  Next week looks pretty nice with an upper low probably bringing partly sunny and slightly cooler conditions early-mid-next week (rain chances should develop east of us with this feature) with a healthy warm-up toward Easter weekend.  It appears that there may be a significant thunderstorm/rain event developing for next Saturday or Sunday so we’ll be watching for that over the next week.

There is a bright side to the cold winter that gripped the nation in 2010.  The cold weather pattern was so strong that there was no way for any warm, moist air to move in.  With no temperature contrasts, and no collisions of different air masses, there weren’t too many thunderstorm outbreaks during the first three months of this year.

Normally, the severe/tornado season gets going along the Gulf Coast and the southeast in mid February.  In March it picks up from the ArkLaTex to the lower Ohio Valley.  April is prime tornado season for much of western Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.  May is usually busy from Nebraska to the Canadian border and anywhere in between the Rockies and the Appalachians.

According to the Storm Prediction Center, over the past three years November, December, and January are the slower months for tornadoes.  April, May, and June are the busy months, with May being the most active month for tornadoes in the United States.  In January, we’ve averaged 37 tornadoes nationwide over the past three years, 78 for February, and 138 for March.  So far this year, 41 in January, 1 in February, and 14 so far this month.  This is about 22% of normal.  The lone tornado in February was in southern California of all places.  California only experiences on average 4 tornadoes per year!  Will this trend continue?  Not too sure yet, but the three most active tornado months are upon us. 

Fortunately most tornadoes that occur in Louisiana are weak.  They can do considerable damage as well as cause injuries or deaths.  Unfortunately, many of the killer tornadoes in Louisiana have occurred at night, or are rain wrapped.  Because of this, the sleeping person may not have gotten the warning ahead of time, or wouldn’t be able to see the storm coming.   The safest place to take cover is in the center part of your home on the lowest floor.  Try to put as many walls between you and outside.  Stay away from windows, and if possible, cover yourself with blankets or pillows to protect yourself from flying debris.  Schools, government facilities, and businesses should have a Tornado Action Plan in place and should be tested at least twice a year.  Television, weather radios, email, and text messaging are other ways to get early warnings.  The more time you have to take cover, the better your chances for survival.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

An active and very strong jet stream will usher another disturbance into the Southern Plains Wednesday allowing for some strong to possibly severe storms from Eastern Texas on northeastward during the afternoon and evening hours.  This system will be most intense primarily in the Arklatex Region but a few hefty storms could get going a little closer to home in Acadiana.  The Storm Prediction Center has most of our area hatched in for a slight risk of severe storms for Wednesday afternoon and evening but where storms initiate will be the question.  Activity for Acadiana should be scattered and not widespread, but because of very strong wind dynamics aloft with a 170mph-200mph jet stream and veering winds with height (clockwise from surface to aloft) any storms that do get going will be capable of producing hail, damaging winds and possibly an isolated tornado.  The risk of this event will increase farther to the north and east of Acadiana, but extra “weather-vigilance” will be the mainstay through tomorrow evening just in case so check with us on air and at katc.com for the latest.  In between, tonight through tomorrow morning, expect mild conditions with areas of fog developing, especially offshore and along the coastal parishes where a Dense Fog Advisory is currently in effect.  After some morning fog, expect partly sunny and warmer conditions with highs pushing into the lower 70s for our Wednesday.  Scattered showers and storms should begin to fire-up across Eastern Texas and/or the Upper Texas Coast early tomorrow afternoon and will rapidly advance east-northeastward during the afternoon and evening.  More stable conditions will move back into Acadiana late Wednesday night with some fog again a possibility by Thursday morning.  Mostly sunny, breezy and warm conditions are anticipated for Thursday with likely the warmest temperatures of the year!  Mid-70s are expected Thursday but a gradual cooling trend is expected into the weekend.  Right now it looks dry through early next week but temperatures will likely stay below normal (50 & 70) Friday through at least next Thursday.

An interesting weather pattern continues to evolve Wednesday for Acadiana as a vigorous upper level disturbance should ignite storms here Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.  The Storm Prediction Center continues to have us hatched in for a slight risk of severe weather Wednesday, but per their wording in today’s assessment the probability of the severe weather threat remains in question.  Veering upper level winds, jet orientation and upper level instability are all quite favorable for severe storms, however low level instability, lack of a surface focus and quality of the moisture returning to the area are questionable.  The bottom line is that showers and storms will likely get fired-up during the afternoon across Acadiana and will likely continue into the evening hours.  The main threat mode of any severe storms should bein the form of damaging winds and large hail with the cold pocket aloft (especially for Wednesday evening).  Isolated tornadic activity cannot be ruled out.  Therefore expect either a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch to be issued for a good part of the area when the storms start firing up.  Stay with KATC for the latest…

This week will be characterized by milder, spring-like conditions with stormy weather for Wednesday and then possibly again late Saturday.  In the near term, dense sea fog may form later this evening across the coastal areas and will migrate northward through morning.  Dense fog advisories may be issued for portions of Acadiana later tonight.  After a foggy start tomorrow Acadiana will see mostly cloudy and mild conditions.  Highs will be dictated by the amount and thickness of the cloud cover and by a few possible intervals of sun; upper 60s to near 70 would be a good call at this point.  There may be a few embedded isolated sprinkles in the cloud cover tomorrow but the real action will start Wednesday.  A rather potent upper level disturbance will initiate a warm frontal boundary/trough across the area Wednesday which will likely produce thunderstorms across the Acadiana.  Upper level wind profiles, instability and orientation of the sub-tropical jet stream will favor a significant risk of severe weather, but lower level instability and a surface focal points may be lacking.  The Storm Prediction Center does have Acadiana hatched in for a slight risk of severe weather Wednesday, but the potential dynamics may favor future upgrades to a moderate risk.  The bottom line is to expect active thunderstorms Wednesday with a couple of inches of rain possible and more than likely a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for most the area sometime on Wednesday.  Spring-like conditions will follow this weather system Thursday through Saturday with highs pushing into the low-mid 70s.  The next weather-maker will likely get here for late Saturday presenting another opportunity of strong to severe storms either late Saturday and/or Saturday night.  Sunday will bring gradual clearing and cooler conditions with highs topping out in the lower 60s.  Stay with KATC and be aware of potential weather hazards that could develop in Acadiana through Wednesday.

A strengthening low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico this evening will advance northeastward Saturday and head toward the Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon.  Breezy conditions with period of rain will be likely through Saturday afternoon with activity likely to taper off Saturday night.  Rough conditions offshore have been reported this afternoon with sustained winds as high as 35-40kts with gusts to near 60kts.  Additional strong storms that develop this evening and tomorrow will insure that very rough conditions will continue through Saturday.  Meanwhile inland most of the precipitation will stay as rain with general accumulations through Saturday evening in the 1-2″ range but isolated amounts to 3″ will be possible for St Mary Parish.  Heavier rains and the slight risk of severe weather with this system may clip extreme Southeastern Louisiana and head toward the Florida Panhandle.  Most of the rain generated in Acadiana through Saturday will be driven by the upper level low that is guiding this system.  The upper low won’t clear the area until Sunday morning.  So after the rains end there will likely be lingering drizzle/mist and perhaps some fog into Saturday night.  Lingering cloud cover Sunday morning should yield to partial clearing and some sun Sunday afternoon.  Temperatures will stay in the upper 40s to lower 50s through Saturday evening dropping into the low-mid 40s for Sunday morning.  Milder conditions are possible for Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to near 60.  Spring-like conditions with mostly sunny skies are anticipated for Monday and Tuesday of next week with highs pushing into the mid-upper 60s.  The next weather-maker will arrive for next Wednesday likely producing a round of thunderstorms.  Even warmer temperatures should follow late next week into the weekend with highs pushing into the low-mid 70s!  Another round of even healthier (possibly severe)  storms may follow for next Sunday.  As we start to see the warmer temperatures ahead of frontal troughs over the next few weeks the risk of severe weather will increase with each system.  Normally our spring severe weather season begins in the latter part of February, but given this El Nino winter pattern it is not unusual to have more frequent severe weather events starting as early as late January.  At least for this weekend it will just be a rain event.  Have a great weekend and Geaux Saints!  Rob

    One ingredient needed for a storm to be classified as severe is hail and that hail must be a certain size.  The National Weather Service is changing that policy with the new year.  This is the posting from the NWS Lake Charles Office:

Finally the sun made an appearance Friday setting the stage for a very nice weekend.  Lots of sun mixed with some high level cirrus clouds are in the forecast for Acadiana’s Saturday with unabated sun expected for Sunday.  Temperatures will cool as high pressure builds in throughout the weekend with highs cooling a few more degrees for Sunday.  Temperatures Saturday night and Sunday night may approach the frost zone so make sure the tender vegetation is protected…especially for Monday morning.  Sunny and mild conditions with highs reaching back into the 60s are expected for Monday afternoon.  Stormy conditions will likely take shape for mid-next week…more below.  Drier weather with chilly conditions should return for Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and and hopefully the following weekend.

We certainly do not need any more rain this month…record breaking rainfall for December in New Iberia is officially at 14.20″.  Some spots in Iberia and St Mary Parish (as well as much of Eastern Louisiana through New Orleans) have been even wetter with 15-20″ hot-spots.  Rainfall totals in Lafayette are approaching 9″.  Unfortanuetly there will be at least another two wet and stormy systems in the offing before the month ends.  It has also been a dreary month with just three days of sun so far this month with eleven days of wet to very wet weather.  At least this weekend (and hopefully Christmas and next weekend) will be a little a little payback!   

The next weather trouble-maker is taking shape for mid-next week with the threat of heavy rainfall and this time around, severe weather.  While early in the forecast game we could see a significant tornadic event for Louisiana by Tuesday night or Wednesday…so stay tuned.  Rob