It promises to be a rather wet week for most of Acadiana as we continue to deal with the remnants of TD5 as it drifts westward toward Acadiana Tuesday and the northward Wednesday. A FLOOD WATCH has been posted for portions of Acadiana from Tuesday morning through Wednesday in the anticipation of the heavy rain threat.
As expected over the weekend this remnant system persisted across the interior portions of the Gulf States and then dropped back to the south with the circulation getting back out over open Gulf water late Sunday night.
Hurricane Hunters flew this system Monday afternoon just south of Mobile, Alabama. The reconnaissance plane found broad low pressure, like last week, but disorganized thunderstorm activity near the center, like last week. This time around upper level conditions are a little more favorable for development through Tuesday prior to the circulation making landfall over Eastern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon. If thunderstorms cluster near the center of circulation later tonight it will likely become an “official” tropical system
Based on upper level conditions and broad lower surface pressures this system is very close to being a depression and may become one at any time through tomorrow. If the system is upgraded, tropical storm warnings would probably be issued for portions of Louisiana through the Alabama coast.
The bottom line with this system is that it will be a major rain-maker with rainfalls of 3-5″ likely around this system and up to 8-10″ possible near where the center of circulation travels through mid-week. Rainfall totals will likely be directly correlated to the speed, or lack of, this exhibits over the next few days. Most computer models earlier today indicated the greatest threat of flooding rains will be in the eastern part of the state Tuesday and then the central part of the state Tuesday night into Wednesday.
More recent computer model runs this evening are much more robust with rainfall totals in Acadiana with 3-5″ possible through Thursday with isolated spots receiving possibly more than double depending ultimately where the center of circulation goes and how quickly it moves. Stay with KATC and katc.com for the latest information.