KATC’s Tropical Threat Index has lower indices for the weekend and much of next week, but the news coming from the Climate Prediction Center is not as encouraging. The CPC is predicting the return of La Nina conditions over the next month or two just in time for the prime-time of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
La Nina is anomalous cooling of water temperatures across the equatorial Eastern Pacific which allows for lighter winds and less shear across the Caribbean and portions of the Atlantic Basin. Less shear over these areas often lead to more storms and more intense hurricanes. This means that the hurricane forecast projections of a very active season by NOAA and Colorado State will likely verify considering both forecast projections factored generally neutral conditions in the Pacific.
In the near term, it appears that the recent active tropical pattern across the Caribbean and Gulf will be quieter through the next week, but expect the pattern to ramp up dramatically as we head into the first few weeks of August. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if we will be talking about one or two tropical systems every week from mid-August through the first week of October…but for now, enjoy the quiet it won’t last for more than a few more weeks.