KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

NASA has posted a nice video of following the progression of the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.  After a recent brief bout with Tropical Storm Bonnie, reports this week by BP, the U.S. Government and independent scientists indicate fractured and more isolated robbons of surface oil in the Gulf.  This can be partially attributed to Tropical Storm Bonnie helping to stir things up over the site.  In addition, our hot summer heat has helped to evaporate some of the oil, while likely the dispersent was also a likely player in reducing visible surface oil.

Experts continue to indicate there is plenty of oil still in the Gulf but natural processes are likely getting a foothold on weathering and naturally dispersing the oil now that the leak has been capped.  This also argues that the response to the spill has likely made some progress too.

The Gulf of Mexico contains 660 quadrillion gallons of water…thats 660,000,000,000,000,000 gallons!  By comparison given the highest estimates of 200 million gallons of oil spilled in the Gulf would account for less than 1 billionth of the entire volume of the Gulf.  These numbers make it seem better for the Gulf, but the question however is how will a few parts per billion (or much, much more in concentrated areas) affect the basic bio-processes/ecosytems and how that will manifest further up in the food chain?  Time will tell.

Bonnie was downgraded to a tropical depression late Friday afternoon after spending about 12 hours over land in southern Florida. 

Bonnie is moving smartly to the west-northwest but should slow somewhat along with a gradual turn to the northwest Saturday.  This may provide some opportunity for the system to strengthen back to tropical storm status. 

Conversely, some of the latest tropical models weaken the system back to a tropical wave prior to landfall Saturday night/Sunday morning over eastern-most Louisiana or southern Mississippi. 

It appears that the main tropical threats from Bonnie will be confined east of Acadaina but there may be the threat of heavy tropical showers and storms spreading westward into the area mainly Sunday…so that is what we will be on the look out for.  Storm surge issues and damaging winds are not expected for the Acadiana area. 

The remnant moisture from Bonnie may linger Monday and Tuesday across the area keeping the chance of some flooding with us until drier weather moves back into the area mid-late next week.  Stay with KATC online or on the air for the latest this weekend…

The KATC Tropical Threat Index is on the rise for the rest of this week and into this weekend as a disturbed area of weather in the Caribbean continues to show signs of slow development.  I developed the Threat Index to highlight weekly tropical threats as we head into the most active part of the hurricane season. 

The Threat Index is derived through utilization of information gathered from the National Hurricane Center, tracking the Global Madden-Jullian Oscilliation, all global and tropical weather models and current satellite and observational trends.

With a 60% chance of the Caribbean disturbance developing into a tropical cyclone, the risk of a depression appears “moderately high” over the next 48 hours and a potential tropical storm assessed at a “moderate” risk, near 40%.  Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to probe this system Wednesday. 

Look for updates on this product daily on KATC.  Rob

If you think it’s been rather hot over the last couple of months you are right!  June temperature data analyzed for Lafayette has revealed yet another record hot month.  Mean temperatures (average of highs and lows) of 84.6 degrees was the hottest on record.  Temperature records in Lafayette date back to 1893.  This record heat comes on the heals of the hottest May on record.

Temperatures have averaged more than 4 degrees above normal over the last couple of months with the main culprit being steamy overnight/morning lows that have averaged nearly 5-6 degrees above normal.  This can partially be attributed to above normal Gulf and Atlantic sea surface temperatures and seasonal variability of a drier than normal spring that has spilled into the summer months.

The bottom line for most of us in Acadiana is that our cooling/electric bills will be higher than normal for June.   July temperatures have been running closer to normal thanks in part to more shower and thunderstorm activity through the third week of the month.

KATC’s Tropical Threat Index has lower indices for the weekend and much of next week, but the news coming from the Climate Prediction Center is not as encouraging.  The CPC is predicting the return of La Nina conditions over the next month or two just in time for the prime-time of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.  

La Nina is anomalous cooling of water temperatures across the equatorial Eastern Pacific which allows for lighter winds and less shear across the Caribbean and portions of the Atlantic Basin.  Less shear over these areas often lead to more storms and more intense hurricanes.  This means that the hurricane forecast projections of a very active season by NOAA and Colorado State will likely verify considering both forecast projections factored generally neutral conditions in the Pacific. 

In the near term, it appears that the recent active tropical pattern across the Caribbean and Gulf will be quieter through the next week, but expect the pattern to ramp up dramatically as we head into the first few weeks of August.  In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if we will be talking about one or two tropical systems every week from mid-August through the first week of October…but for now, enjoy the quiet it won’t last for more than a few more weeks.

High pressure over the SE U.S. will push to the southwest ushering deep tropical moisture and a potential tropical system westward into Texas and Mexico over the next several days.  This means rain chances will gradually decrease across Acadiana through Friday with typical July heat and humidity and surpressed rain chances Friday into the weekend. 

In fact, the pattern looks rather sedate finally with respect to the tropics for the better part of a week (after the system in the Gulf moves inland by Friday) with no major suspect areas anticipated through the second week of July.  We could see a more active tropical pattern redevelop for the 3rd week of this month…with the eventually that it will likely get very busy in the tropics from mid-August on.  For now, enjoy the heat and humidity, but not too much, as heat indices will likely reach the 105-108 degree mark this weekend.

The tropical moisture plume will re-establish across Southern Louisiana this week as two areas of weak low pressure will be players in Acadiana’s weather.  The front burner system is a weak (1010mb) low just south of Atchafalaya Bay which is expected to drift northwestward through Wednesday.  Although this system is not truly tropical in nature nor is it expected to strengthen much, it will be responsible for enhancing Acadiana’s rain chances (daytime and night-time) for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as this system will open the door to deep tropical moisture through mid-week. 

A secondary system in the Northwestern Caribbean is associated with a broad area of surface low pressure with deep disorganized tropical showers and storms.  This feature will push in the central Gulf of Mexico by mid-week and should help to provide another day of enhanced showers and storms for Acadiana Thursday. 

The bottom line is that this week will be another wetter and cloudier than normal one…at least this will keep our high temperatures closer to the mid-upper 80s.  Few storms and hotter temperatures should return for the weekend.