With less than 2 months before the official beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, Colorado State hurricane forecasters Drs. Klotzbach and Gray issued their April 2010 Hurricane Forecast today and it appears to be much busier than last year due to an expected weakening of El Nino and above average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. Their forecast is a resumption of the 20-25 period of enhanced/increased tropical activity as compared with the long-term average. The group continues to indicate that we remain in a several decade active pattern that started in the mid-1990s.
The forecast for this year calls for 15 tropical storms (the long term average is 10), 8 hurricanes (the long term average is 6), and 4 major, Category 3 or greater, storms (long term average is 2). Much of the forecast hinges on whether El Nino will fade for the prime-time part of the season which is August through October. 
“We expect current moderate El Niño conditions to transition to neutral conditions by this year’s hurricane season. The predicted weakening of El Niño conditions combined with a very strong anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic are the primary reasons why we are increasing our forecast.” according to Dr. Klotzbach who has taken the reigns from Dr Gray in the seasonal hurricane forecasts issued by the group.
If the forecasters are right the risk of a severe, Category 3 or higher storm striking somewhere between the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville will increase from a long-term average of 30% to 44%. These projections are similar to their forecasts that were issued for the very busy 2004, 2005 and 2008 hurricane seasons.
Although it remains impossible to pinpoint where the storms are going to strike, based on the data revealed in the report, expect a very active tropical pattern for the latter part of August through the first week of October.