KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

A few weeks back I was contacted by the Daily Show with Jon Stewart to possibly discuss the topic of global warming and the general reticence of TV meteorologists and weather forecasters to completely agree with the entire IPCC report and resultant climate forecasts and the gravity of the ramifications of a warmer planet.  Now this is a topic that I can’t do justice in one blog entry but will try to explain the set-up for the interview and discuss the reasons of why I have risked my career in front of a national audience! 

After speaking with a researcher for the show I accepted their offer to be interviewed by a segment producer and  correspondent with the show full well knowing that the show would be looking to make fun of us weathercasters…but I figured it was an opportunity to place an emphasis on what us “day to day” forecasters think about the entire subject.  While it would be quite risky professionally, the topic of global warming is not completely understood by the media and public, and the certainties and uncertainties of the ramifications of a warmer world are not appropriately delineated.  Add politics, big money and the sense that we all need to be more environmentally responsible the question remains where is this all heading?  Being a meteorologist with a degree in the subject, 25 years of weather forecasting experience, tracking hundreds of tropical storms and hurricanes, and probably more than one thousand severe weather episodes, plus working in the the media, hopefully has given me a unique perspective on the subject matter. 

Full well knowing that a two hour interview would be edited down to just a few minutes I met with the the Daily Show producer and correspondent, actor Josh Gad at WBRZ’s studios.  I was interviewed along with WBRZ Chief Forecaster Pat Shingleton and WBRZ morning meteorologist Dave Nussbaum.  As Pat, Dave and I sat down for the interview we all looked at each other wondering aloud if careers would be going down the old porcelain facility!  

The aim of the piece is to highlight the disparity between climatologists and meteorologists when it comes to communicating the message on the subject of climate change.  Some of the impetus of the story I believe was initiated by a number of studies produced by George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication.  The paper just published Monday titled “America’s TV Weathercasters as Informal Climate Change Educators” indicates that TV weathercasters play a role on the subject of educating the public on climate change but there is much disparity in opinions amongst the group on the subject. 

Remember the Daily Show is billed as a “fake” news program with the main emphasis on “adult” comedy.  The show airs on Comedy Central at 1000pm locally.  Jon Stewart is certainly one of the great political satirists of our time so it’s almost an honor getting chosen to be made fun of!   The Daily Show also has interviewed climatologists for this piece so it will be a classic meteorologists vs. climatologists smackdown and hopefully it will be funny and not end anyone’s career.  I do not have an air date for the piece but will post it as soon as I know, plus more entries on the subject of climate change to come.  Rob

              Beautiful blue skies and cool dry air looks to be the player of the week.  Trees and shrubs are showing bright color and unlike most times we are finding something that needs to be do outside.  After and crazy and sometimes unbelievable Winter Acadiana is in the thick of Spring. 

              I feel confident that we can put Winter behind us with no more freezes expected.  This pattern of cool & dry will run for the week. 

To Do List

           TO DO LIST:

           I have my outdoor chore To Do list made.  After you finish this important job now would be a good time to make a repair list for outside.  Take a walk through the yard and makes notes of lose siding, shingles and even gutters blocked with leaves, especially Live Oak, these tend to be very heavy and gutter guards don’t always hold them back.  Check the roof also for fallen leaves that might have collected, leaving them on the roof may damage roof and eaves. 

        Check your trees fall branches that might have broken but not fell to the ground.  You can remove them now to avoid damage they may cause when they fall later.  The winter was tough on many plants and shrubs so you may have lost some.  But look closely at the base of the plant there may be some life under all the dead leaves.  This winter cause much of our plants to die back further then other winters.  Before digging them up give them a little more time to recover.  They may still be alive and with the warm weather here they break out a little later. 

       Any preventive maintenance you can get do now will only put you ahead for Hurricane Season 2010 starting in June. 

   Now the only thing left to do is buy a Fishing License and explore the waters of South Louisiana.

If you are lucky enough to have some off time this week you are certainly in luck!  The outstanding spring weather is finally here!  Look for nice and cool nights other the next few days with bountiful afternoon sunshine and temperatures topping-out near 70 Monday, mid-70s for mid-week, and upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday into the weekend.  Unfortunately, Easter weekend weather, at least Saturday, may spoil some Easter Egg Hunts as a potent upper system and frontal trough may bring a healthy chance of storms, and possibly severe weather to Acadiana.  Hopefully conditions will improve for Sunday but the upper low guiding the next system may stall over the area.  At least we have a beautiful week ahead to ponder the outcome of this weekend’s system!

A strong squall line pushed through Acadiana this morning ahead of a cool front that will insure a nice Friday.  A few storms became severe this morning as several bowing storms (an/or mesocyclones) brought downburst winds to portions of the area.  Wind gusts were estimated by the National Weather Service near 80mph near Iota with gusts as high as 90mph just north of Opelousas.  We also had a number of reports of some small hail.  Just another highlight of why any fronts we see this time of year through April garner plenty of respect (see my last blog entry).  As quickly as the activity moved in, it pushed out ushering in  breezy sunshine and temperatures in the low-mid 70s this afternoon.  Cooler conditions are anticipated for tonight with some clouds possibly rolling into the northern parishes overnight.  Look for mostly sunny and pleasant conditions for Friday with highs in the upper 60s.  This weekend should be a good one with the only caveat being another frontal trough that will push through the area Saturday evening/overnight.  Although the quality of moisture return from the Gulf is in question, there will be a slight risk of showers and storms Saturday evening…and if storms do get going there may be a few healthy ones.  The greatest risk of any severe weather should be well to the north of Acadiana…but we’ll see.  Once again this system will be quick-moving so look for fair to partly cloudy, breezy and warm conditions for both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the low-mid 70s.  Breezy southerly winds Saturday will stay breezy on Sunday, but will shift from a northwesterly direction.  Next week looks pretty nice with an upper low probably bringing partly sunny and slightly cooler conditions early-mid-next week (rain chances should develop east of us with this feature) with a healthy warm-up toward Easter weekend.  It appears that there may be a significant thunderstorm/rain event developing for next Saturday or Sunday so we’ll be watching for that over the next week.

It’s been an exciting day in the Weather Lab and at KATC as we have unveiled our new iPhone App.  Search “katc” on iTunes and you will find our free app.  On this app you will find all the breaking news, weather and sports information that you will find on our website including video, Power Doppler 3000, our Futurecast computer models, wind forecast maps and the ever popular 24-hour, 8-Day forecasts and Weather @ Your Desk. 

Weather-wise look for breezy and warmer conditions for our Wednesday with a general increase in cloud cover in advance of a frontal system that will approach the area Thursday morning.  Today’s Futurecast model runs have become rather aggressive on the chance of showers and storms in Acadiana during early morning hours on Thursday.  Skies should clear by Thursday afternoon with a pleasant Friday and weekend (with some qualifiers to follow) on tap.  Another frontal trough will approach by Saturday night into very early Sunday which could lead to another round of showers…but this event is still rather dubious as return flow moisture may be quite limited.  But as we head into the last few days of March and push into April storm systems usually can get cranking with less dynamics than we see in the winter months which makes this past Saturday’s forecast more interesting…as it was generally a bust on the rain chances.  Occasionally the thermal internal boundary layer that sits off the coast of Louisiana acts as a wet blanket on any storm dynamics.  The marine layer chilled by the cooler shelf waters of the Gulf can be a big stabilizing factor when it comes to storms…but not always, which makes forecasting for Acadiana in the spring-time that much more challenging!

There is a bright side to the cold winter that gripped the nation in 2010.  The cold weather pattern was so strong that there was no way for any warm, moist air to move in.  With no temperature contrasts, and no collisions of different air masses, there weren’t too many thunderstorm outbreaks during the first three months of this year.

Normally, the severe/tornado season gets going along the Gulf Coast and the southeast in mid February.  In March it picks up from the ArkLaTex to the lower Ohio Valley.  April is prime tornado season for much of western Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.  May is usually busy from Nebraska to the Canadian border and anywhere in between the Rockies and the Appalachians.

According to the Storm Prediction Center, over the past three years November, December, and January are the slower months for tornadoes.  April, May, and June are the busy months, with May being the most active month for tornadoes in the United States.  In January, we’ve averaged 37 tornadoes nationwide over the past three years, 78 for February, and 138 for March.  So far this year, 41 in January, 1 in February, and 14 so far this month.  This is about 22% of normal.  The lone tornado in February was in southern California of all places.  California only experiences on average 4 tornadoes per year!  Will this trend continue?  Not too sure yet, but the three most active tornado months are upon us. 

Fortunately most tornadoes that occur in Louisiana are weak.  They can do considerable damage as well as cause injuries or deaths.  Unfortunately, many of the killer tornadoes in Louisiana have occurred at night, or are rain wrapped.  Because of this, the sleeping person may not have gotten the warning ahead of time, or wouldn’t be able to see the storm coming.   The safest place to take cover is in the center part of your home on the lowest floor.  Try to put as many walls between you and outside.  Stay away from windows, and if possible, cover yourself with blankets or pillows to protect yourself from flying debris.  Schools, government facilities, and businesses should have a Tornado Action Plan in place and should be tested at least twice a year.  Television, weather radios, email, and text messaging are other ways to get early warnings.  The more time you have to take cover, the better your chances for survival.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

In fact it’s so cold it feels like, well….Toledo!  Yesterday’s high temperature was only 46 degrees.  It tied the coldest high temperature for March 21st.  That’s about 27 degrees colder than it’s supposed to be this time of year.  It’s 13 degrees colder than our coldest normal high temperature in early January!  Spring officially began Saturday afternoon, so Sunday was our first “full” day of spring!  

A late season cold blast gripped much of the nation east of the Rockies, spreading cold rain and even snow flurries as far south as central Louisiana!  Wrap around cloud cover blocked any chance for warming.  Those clouds should clear today, so temperatures will warm into the 60s, but still more like January than late March.  70 degree temperatures will return tomorrow.  Most of the week will be quiet weatherwise, just a few showers will be possible Thursday.

And yes, it was very much like Toledo yesterday.  Their normal high for March 21st is 48 degrees. Ours is 73.  They don’t hit normals in the low 70s until the end of May, or about the same time we start complaining that it’s too hot!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com

With the 2010 hurricane season less than 3 months away a conference at LSU in Baton Rouge ended yesterday with plans to better weather any storms that may approach this season.  Topics discussed included the need of better data and modelling of our coast and inland areas.  Many areas along coastal Acadiana and Southeast Louisiana are as much as 2 feet lower as compared with surveys that were done 30-40 years ago.  This continues to present a major problem when estimating potential storm surges associated with tropical storms and hurricanes that affect the Louisiana Coast.  Storm surges from hurricanes Rita and Ike in 2005 and 2008 inundated more than a thousand of square miles along our coast with the salty surge water of Ike taking nearly twice as long to drain out of the wetlands because of the plugs in the marsh left behind by the swifter surge waters from Rita.  Higher salinity, or salt levels, in the coastal marsh has severely hindered marsh vegetation that has proven to mitigate (lower) storm surge effects.  Coastal protection and restoration strategies were presented with some spirited debate on how to approach the problem on a short and long term basis.  Tim Osborn with the NOAA Office of Coast Survey indicated this conference was successful in bringing together LSU researchers, the National Weather Service, and various government entities and the media.

I used to be a big fan of Daylight Saving Time.  I remember summer evenings, racing through supper just so I could get back outside with friends in the neighborhood.  The curfew law in place by my Mother was “Be home when the street lights came on, and not a moment later!”.  I grew up in the Midwest where there was still a little bit of daylight as late as 9pm, so the street lights stayed off until 8:30.  That was like midnight to a 10 year old!

Fast forward 30 years.  I work on a morning show.  I have a wife and four kids.  It’s already hard enough to get the proper amount of sleep every night, but it’s especially tough when it’s still daylight outside at bedtime!  Naturally, living things go through the motions each day of waking up and falling asleep guided by the sun.  But us humans want more.  We want to use as many minutes of each day that we can.  If we don’t complete each of our tasks for the day, we figure out how to get more work done.  Since we can’t control the sun, we’ve decided to control the clock instead.

Now I know that most of the working world is 9-5!  With kids and school, that means up at 6, kids on the bus at 7, head for work at 8, and if we’re lucky, back home by 6pm.  During the winter, that means getting up when it’s still dark, and getting home as the sun sets.  But with the warmer weather and longer days during the summer, we have extra time in the evenings for activities with the family, yard work, or whatever.  And…we switch the clocks forward one hour, so we can keep the sun out even longer during the evening.  We call it Daylight Saving Time.  I propose (from a morning person’s perspective) that we call it Daylight Stealing Time! 

You see by switching the clocks, you’re not saving anything.  Even though the sunset Saturday was at 6:15 and sunset Sunday was 7:16, the day was only 1 minute longer.  And this is because of the natural progression from Winter to Summer.  The days get longer.  So basically the other 59 minutes of daylight was stolen from the morning.  Anyone have trouble getting a teenager out of bed for school Monday?  Felt yourself yawning during the day this week?  Still having trouble getting to bed at night?  Experts say, just losing that one hour, takes a full week to adjust to.  I go to bed later than most of my morning crew, but 11 o’clock Sunday night, and around 10 the last two nights is taking its toll on me.  3am is still 3am no matter if it’s Daylight or Standard time.  The weekend can’t get here any sooner.

Those of us in the meteorology world work on two clocks.  Local time and Universal time.  The prime meridian is the imaginary line that divides the eastern and western hemispheres.  It runs through Greenwich, England.  You may have seen UTC, or GMT, or Z time.  All of these are the same.  The time in Greenwich is the official time of the planet.  If you have a clock set to Universal Time in Louisiana, the the clock says the same thing in China, England, Australia, and Siberia.  When weather balloons are released, they all go at approximately the same time…around the globe using Z time.  That way we can get a measure of the atmosphere around the world, all at the same time.  Unfortunately our local clock changes.  Z time does not.

I always try to use the most up to date information to produce my weather forecast each day.  You wouldn’t want me to base my forecast on a computer model from yesterday right?  Well, when daylight time kicks in, that’s exactly what I have to do.  Because of the time change, essentially I (and you) are doing everything one hour earlier.  Well our computer models are running at the same time as always.  Some models update more than others, but some of the most dependable models update every six hours at 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z.  Before daylight time the 06Z models would be ready for me to use for the morning show (usually ready by 4am).  Now the 06z stuff doesn’t come in until our show has started (after 5am).  Therefore, the most recent model I can use is 0z.  Subtract 5 hours from 0z and you get 7pm our time…yesterday. 

With older data, my forecast is based on weather parameters that may have changed.  With less accurate data, the forecast becomes less accurate too.  Now the changes in the models usually aren’t too dramatic.  But when it comes to very specific forecasting, such as hurricane tracks, the paths from model run to model run can switch by hundreds of miles in a short term forecast, to thousands of miles by day 5.  Making big changes during the show is a hard enough task in itself with Weather on the 3s.  Some of the maps and the  adjustments to the data can take up to an hour to produce.  Have you ever seen a forecast saying the hurricane was going to Florida, and when you get to work everyone is talking about the hurricane coming here.  Well the new model was used during the second hour of the show, you watched the first hour and missed it.

I can’t make the rest of the world change just because of my forecasts, but I might be able to fix the whole sleep thing.  I suggest, instead of pushing the clocks forward one hour, let’s roll it backwards by 23.  You still get the daylight saving time effect in the evening, but instead of losing an hour of sleep, you gain almost a whole day to adjust!  Everyone loves a three day weekend right?  Then, when it’s time to change the clocks back in the fall, you’ll have to lose a day going forward 23 hours. I choose MONDAY.  Skip the Monday, have the week begin on Tuesday making a four day week.  Seems like a win/win scenario to me!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com

The string of beautiful days has a lot of folks saying, “Boy, I wish we could have weather like this all the time!”  In a perfect world, it would be great!  Blue skies, no hurricanes, no big swings in temperatures, and no worries about the electric or gas bill!  Believe it or not there are downsides to having great weather all of the time!

First of all…I would be out of a job.  If the weather was perfect all of the time, you would probably get bored hearing me say, “It’s gonna be gorgeous today!” over and over again.  Secondly, it would be very quiet around here…I mean, besides our great food, we wouldn’t have anything else to talk about! We love to hate the weather in Louisiana, so it’s definitely in the top 10 when it comes to everyday conversation, right?  Other businesses would fail too.  With no hurricanes to prepare for, who’s going to buy all of the plywood, bottled water, and soft toilet paper that the world has to offer?? 

What do I think would be the biggest downside of them all??  If our weather was so great, everyone would want to live here too.  As much as I encourage people from other places how much they would love living in South Louisiana, I don’t want everybody here.  Tourists spend more money per day than those who live here, so let’s keep them visiting!  Besides, if everyone wanted to live here, our house notes or rents would be ten million percent higher than it already is!

The Farmers Almanac once said that San Diego, California has the best weather in the country.  Average high temperature in the summer, 77 degrees.  Average high in the winter..67.  They average about 2-3 days a month with rain, and nice low humidity all year long.  Over 300 days of sunshine, and only about 4 days per year hit 90 degrees, and almost never below freezing!  The population there has increased 1600% in the last 100 years and even after the housing bust, the average 3 bedroom home still goes for about $500,000!

Lets enjoy the great weather for now, and I look forward to eight solid months of, “It’s so hot outside Dave, when are you gonna cool it off!”

Note:  That picture at the top is one I shot Sunday afternoon on the Lakefront in New Orleans.  My 7 year old son, Thomas made some nice catches with the frisbee.  While visiting friends and playing with all the kids yesterday, I was wishing we could have weather like this all the time too!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana, Weekday Mornings 5-7am

weather@katctv.com