KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

You’re confused about the forecast for the next couple of days, so am I.  There are so many different scenarios for this potential winter weather maker it’ll make your head spin.   It’s usually the case when we have to forecast any winter weather along the Gulf Coast, but this one in particular is puzzling.   Each individual model shows a different outcome, and each succeeding model (time wise) is changing too.  The problem isn’t the fact that the models are different…it’s actually the opposite.  The differences are so slight, which makes fine tuning the forecast even tougher.  The rain or snow areas move back and forth by tens of miles rather than hundreds like we usually see.  And because us meteorologists are victims of our own success with predicting weather these days (pat on the back), our viewers have demanded a “higher resolution” when it comes to forecasting precipitation.

When it comes to winter precipitation, not only do I have the adult audience wanting to know where it will rain and/or where it will snow…I now have the younger folks, yes, the kids focusing on the TV with wishes of fluffy white covering the ground…and more importantly…closing school!  If you’re a parent, you’re constantly battling the “it’s not fair!” thing with your kids over what channel to watch, or who gets to play with the toy, or who gets to sit behind Mommy in the car.  That’s nothing compared to having Tom Voinche picture message my phone with a giant snowball at his home in Eunice, while 50 miles away, my kids are giving me “the look” at why there’s none at our house in New Iberia! 

So, here’s the best guess for now.  Remember this forecast is subject to change.  I’m going with increasing clouds today.  Cloudy and cold tonight with lows in the lower 30s.  Cloudy Thursday with rain developing during the morning, and continuing through the day.  Areas north of US 190 may see a few pellets of sleet during the morning, but changing to rain during the day.  Thursday night, a cold rain will continue for most of Acadiana.  After midnight, again areas north of US 190 will see rain and sleet mixed.  As the low moves eastward across the Gulf the rain/sleet mix in the northern sections will change over to snow for a short period of time before ending in the early afternoon.  Sleet may mix with the rain during that same time period for areas between US 190 and I-10.  My apologies to my children…looks like all rain for everywhere else south of I-10.

If you’re dying to see (real) snow.  Leave today and head for Natchez, or Brookhaven, or McComb, Mississippi.  Winter storm watches are posted there.  Southwest Mississippi could expect 2-4 inches of snow.  If you want to see sleet accumulating then you’ll need to be anywhere between Baton Rouge and Slidell.

If the low tracks farther south, then we’ll adjust the precip types farther south.  If we see the low farther north, then most of us will see rain, and the snow areas will lift northward toward Monroe and Jackson.  But the distances are only going to vary by about 50 miles or so again.  Tune in tomorrow because I think we won’t be grabbing on to one particular forecast until the event has begun.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

Yep, you guessed it!  More rain coming in after a short break.  Yesterday turned out to be pretty nice with temperatures hitting the mid 60s.  But last night turned ugly with the rain and the wind and the cold.  This morning we’ve see blustery conditions with temperatures holding in the 40s and wind chills in the 30s.  We’ll see some sunshine this afternoon, but don’t bet on the temps to climb much today.  That wind will continue to drive cold air southward.

Skies will remain clear tonight.  Temperatures should be close to 30 degrees with a moderate breeze continuing.  If the winds were to go calm we’d be even colder, but that’s not in the forecast this time.  As Rob mentioned, this should be a light freeze so tender vegetation should be covered or brought in.  Lucky for me, I don’t have to prepare.  All of my tender vegetation was wiped out in January with the 20 degree weather.  (All of it was weeds anyway, I’m just looking for my excuse for a re-do on my yard for 2010)  Pipes won’t be a problem this time as freezing temperatures should only last a few hours.  But winter weather will hold on for quite some time.  Temperatures are to remain below normal through the Mardi Gras holiday.

Another “El Nino” system will be cranking up over the western Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, so after some brief sunshine later today and early tomorrow, clouds will be returning later in the day Wednesday.  Rains will return by Thursday morning and should continue through early Friday.  Temperatures will stay in the 40s both Thursday and Friday with lows in the 30s.  It will be a cold rain for Acadiana, although there may be a few pellets of sleet mixed in early Friday morning.  I’ve looked at the models and it looks like the snow line will remain well north of us.  The Rain/Sleet mix line may drop into northern Allen, Evangeline, and St. Landry.  As the low tracks east of us though, the cold air deepens over parts of Mississippi and the Florida parishes of Louisiana (Baton Rouge to the north shore).  Accumulating snow could be in the cards for places like McComb, Hattiesburg, and Laurel, Mississippi.  Sleet/Snow mix could be an issue for Kentwood, Franklinton, and Bogalusa, Louisiana.  This storm system will intensify so more significant snows may be seen in Alabama and Georgia Friday and Saturday.  Of course any changes in track for this Gulf low can make or break the forecast, therefore I’m being cautiously optimistic that travel concerns should be well east of us this time around.

Saturday and Sunday look pretty nice for Mardi Gras Parade viewing as long as you have warm attire.  The Children’s Parade during the morning Saturday will be chilly.  Night parades will be chilly too, but rain should stay away.  Lundi Gras may see a few widely scattered showers, and Mardi Gras looks cloudy right now.  Temperatures during the day should hit the mid 50s with lows in the mid 30s.  Normally this time of year we should be about 10 degrees warmer on both highs and lows!

If you’re planning on heading to the Big Easy later today for the Saints Super Bowl Champion Parade, bundle up!  Parade starts at 5pm and temps will be in the low 40s with north winds @ 15mph.  Remember in the city those winds can be stronger when they funnel between tall buildings.  Make sure you dress warmly, but if my prediction is correct, there will be so many people crowded to catch a glimpse of our Champs that just the combined body heat of everyone will make it warmer.  Even so, folks won’t care about the cold.  If we can scream and yell for some cheap beads year after year in the cold and the rain…then we can brave any kind of weather for this once I mean, first in a lifetime event!  Gives new meaning to “Wait Til Next Year” huh?

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

A sharp cold front will usher in winter-like temperatures back into Acadiana early Tuesday morning.  Highs Wednesday may not make it out of the 40s despite sunshine returning by the afternoon.  It will be dry in New Orleans too for Tuesday afternoon/evening for the Saints Parade but dress warmly as temperatures will stay in the 40s accompanied by a blustery northwest wind.  Temperatures will likely drop to near or below the freezing mark in Acadiana for Wednesday morning so it’s time again to tend to the tender vegetation.  Wednesday will be cool, partly sunny and dry, but clouds will be increasing late in the day.  It will get interesting Thursday as a quick-developing storm system will likely bring cold rains to the area.  This may bring winter weather conditions to the northern part of the state and as close as Central Louisiana at the onset of the precipitation and perhaps when things wind down Thursday night.  If the track of the developing surface low goes farther south than is currently forecast we could see a forecast tilted to some sort of wintry mix.  Right now though we’ll go with very chilly rains with at least 1-2″ of rain possible…if not maybe a little more.  In the wake of Thursday’s system cold and dry weather should follow that will likely carry us through much of the Mardi Gras holiday weekend.  Showers could return though for Fat Tuesday…so stay tuned to KATC for that, updates on the weather system tonight, and then for the one on Thursday…as always the forecast is subject to change!

After our soaking rains Thursday we are all looking forward to the weekend with drier conditions Friday and cool sunshine this weekend.  Lingering cloud cover will stay with us through early Friday evening with skies clearing out Friday night.  This weekend promises mostly sunny and cool conditions with highs in the mid-50s accompanied by lows dropping to near 40 Saturday morning and mid-upper 30s for Sunday morning.  So it looks good for the local Mardi Gras events this weekend and also for the Super Bowl here and in Florida.  In fact, the same frontal trough that brought us rain will will push through the Miami area Friday night into very early Saturday.  Sunny skies with highs near 70 (which is cool by Miami standards) is in the forecast for Super Bowl Sunday.  Temperatures at game time will be dropping through the 60s and heading for the upper 50s for the Saints winning celebration! 

Soaking rains will develop across Acadiana overnight with locally heavy downpours likely by Thursday morning.  The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for most of Acadiana for the possibility of “run-off” problems.  Per the NWS, rainfall totals will generally be inthe 2-4″ range, but isolated spots may see more than that.  Fortunately we have had a comparatively dry January after such a wet December so the ground will likely take most of the coming rainfall.  But as always, it’s not totally about how much, but what period of time the rain comes in.  Upper level dynamics combined with deep precipitable atmospheric moisture will be efficient in producing some heavy downpours.  In addition, there will likely be some embedded thunder, especially closer to the coastal parishes.  Areas that see repeated heavy downpours and embedded storms will be vulnerable to some street flooding…perhaps something more if rain totals exceed the current projections.  The enclosed graphic highlights the rain potential based on our late afternoon model run.  Any severe storms generated by this system should stay offshore but they could clip the extreme southeastern part of the state during the afternoon.  Offshore, very rough conditions with near gale winds, up to 8-14ft seas and minor coastal flooding will be possible as tides rise to 1-2ft above predicted levels.  The rains will taper in most areas to patchy drizzle/mist Thursday evening with lingering cloud cover likely through Friday morning.  Cool sun is still with us for the weekend with a milder Monday  followed by a moderate cold front late Monday that should keep us quite chilly through mid-next week.  The bottom line for the near-term-keep that umbrella handy and be ready for the Gulf of Mexico’s version of another “Nor’easter”.

After a cold, gray, rainy, day Monday, we’ll take a break from the rain today and tomorrow.  We’ll start with clouds and fog with a bit of drizzle early today, but clouds will slowly break up as we head toward the afternoon.  We’ve got a bit of a temperature inversion out there where the heavy, cold air has sank to the bottom of the atmosphere, and a layer of warm air aloft is trapping that cold, dense air.  The interaction between the cold and the warm has produced a layer of thin cloud cover.  Hopefully with a bit of wind, the atmosphere can mix enough to wash out the inversion and allow some sunshine this afternoon.  These “inversion” forecasts during the winter really take a toll on us meteorologists.  They can make or break the forecast…unfortunately the latter is usually the result.  I’ve stuck with mostly cloudy skies, but if the sun returns, most folks won’t be mad.  It’s when I predict sunshine to warm thing up, and the inversion holds…clouds stick around and usually I’ll miss the high temp by a good 5-10 degrees.  That’s usually when I hear it from you!

The next storm system believe it or not is the easier part of the forecast today.  The upper level pattern across the west will get more active today and should help to generate another surface low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico tomorrow.  As this low moves across the Gulf, decent moisture returns are forecast by the models.  The low should stay south of the region, so we’ll be on the cool side of this system.  Therefore, thunderstorms and any chances for severe weather should remain over the Gulf.  Moisture, overriding the cold air should produce clouds and a steady rain most of the day Thursday, with some pockets of heavy rain expected.  Most models are in agreement that Acadiana could see 2-3″ of rain starting late Wednesday night and ending around sunrise Friday.  Temperatures will remain below normal.

Over the weekend as everyone gets ready for the Super Bowl, we should see more sunshine and quiet weather.  Temperatures over the weekend will still be cool for this time of the year.  Both days should see 50s for highs and upper 30s and low 40s for lows.  Cool, but not unusual for early February.

Heavy rains plagued south Florida yesterday and more rain is expected today, so the Saints may have to adjust their practice schedule again.  Improving conditions are expected later this week.  Super Bowl Sunday looks to be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 70s. Kickoff temperature should be around 71 degrees with a light northeast breeze.  All bets are off on the forecast once Hurricane Brees enters Sun Life Stadium!  Go Saints!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com