You’re confused about the forecast for the next couple of days, so am I. There are so many different scenarios for this potential winter weather maker it’ll make your head spin. It’s usually the case when we have to forecast any winter weather along the Gulf Coast, but this one in particular is puzzling. Each individual model shows a different outcome, and each succeeding model (time wise) is changing too. The problem isn’t the fact that the models are different…it’s actually the opposite. The differences are so slight, which makes fine tuning the forecast even tougher. The rain or snow areas move back and forth by tens of miles rather than hundreds like we usually see. And because us meteorologists are victims of our own success with predicting weather these days (pat on the back), our viewers have demanded a “higher resolution” when it comes to forecasting precipitation.
When it comes to winter precipitation, not only do I have the adult audience wanting to know where it will rain and/or where it will snow…I now have the younger folks, yes, the kids focusing on the TV with wishes of fluffy white covering the ground…and more importantly…closing school! If you’re a parent, you’re constantly battling the “it’s not fair!” thing with your kids over what channel to watch, or who gets to play with the toy, or who gets to sit behind Mommy in the car. That’s nothing compared to having Tom Voinche picture message my phone with a giant snowball at his home in Eunice, while 50 miles away, my kids are giving me “the look” at why there’s none at our house in New Iberia!
So, here’s the best guess for now. Remember this forecast is subject to change. I’m going with increasing clouds today. Cloudy and cold tonight with lows in the lower 30s. Cloudy Thursday with rain developing during the morning, and continuing through the day. Areas north of US 190 may see a few pellets of sleet during the morning, but changing to rain during the day. Thursday night, a cold rain will continue for most of Acadiana. After midnight, again areas north of US 190 will see rain and sleet mixed. As the low moves eastward across the Gulf the rain/sleet mix in the northern sections will change over to snow for a short period of time before ending in the early afternoon. Sleet may mix with the rain during that same time period for areas between US 190 and I-10. My apologies to my children…looks like all rain for everywhere else south of I-10.
If you’re dying to see (real) snow. Leave today and head for Natchez, or Brookhaven, or McComb, Mississippi. Winter storm watches are posted there. Southwest Mississippi could expect 2-4 inches of snow. If you want to see sleet accumulating then you’ll need to be anywhere between Baton Rouge and Slidell.
If the low tracks farther south, then we’ll adjust the precip types farther south. If we see the low farther north, then most of us will see rain, and the snow areas will lift northward toward Monroe and Jackson. But the distances are only going to vary by about 50 miles or so again. Tune in tomorrow because I think we won’t be grabbing on to one particular forecast until the event has begun.
StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker
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