KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Soaking rains will develop across Acadiana overnight with locally heavy downpours likely by Thursday morning.  The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for most of Acadiana for the possibility of “run-off” problems.  Per the NWS, rainfall totals will generally be inthe 2-4″ range, but isolated spots may see more than that.  Fortunately we have had a comparatively dry January after such a wet December so the ground will likely take most of the coming rainfall.  But as always, it’s not totally about how much, but what period of time the rain comes in.  Upper level dynamics combined with deep precipitable atmospheric moisture will be efficient in producing some heavy downpours.  In addition, there will likely be some embedded thunder, especially closer to the coastal parishes.  Areas that see repeated heavy downpours and embedded storms will be vulnerable to some street flooding…perhaps something more if rain totals exceed the current projections.  The enclosed graphic highlights the rain potential based on our late afternoon model run.  Any severe storms generated by this system should stay offshore but they could clip the extreme southeastern part of the state during the afternoon.  Offshore, very rough conditions with near gale winds, up to 8-14ft seas and minor coastal flooding will be possible as tides rise to 1-2ft above predicted levels.  The rains will taper in most areas to patchy drizzle/mist Thursday evening with lingering cloud cover likely through Friday morning.  Cool sun is still with us for the weekend with a milder Monday  followed by a moderate cold front late Monday that should keep us quite chilly through mid-next week.  The bottom line for the near-term-keep that umbrella handy and be ready for the Gulf of Mexico’s version of another “Nor’easter”.