KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

A strengthening low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico this evening will advance northeastward Saturday and head toward the Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon.  Breezy conditions with period of rain will be likely through Saturday afternoon with activity likely to taper off Saturday night.  Rough conditions offshore have been reported this afternoon with sustained winds as high as 35-40kts with gusts to near 60kts.  Additional strong storms that develop this evening and tomorrow will insure that very rough conditions will continue through Saturday.  Meanwhile inland most of the precipitation will stay as rain with general accumulations through Saturday evening in the 1-2″ range but isolated amounts to 3″ will be possible for St Mary Parish.  Heavier rains and the slight risk of severe weather with this system may clip extreme Southeastern Louisiana and head toward the Florida Panhandle.  Most of the rain generated in Acadiana through Saturday will be driven by the upper level low that is guiding this system.  The upper low won’t clear the area until Sunday morning.  So after the rains end there will likely be lingering drizzle/mist and perhaps some fog into Saturday night.  Lingering cloud cover Sunday morning should yield to partial clearing and some sun Sunday afternoon.  Temperatures will stay in the upper 40s to lower 50s through Saturday evening dropping into the low-mid 40s for Sunday morning.  Milder conditions are possible for Sunday afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to near 60.  Spring-like conditions with mostly sunny skies are anticipated for Monday and Tuesday of next week with highs pushing into the mid-upper 60s.  The next weather-maker will arrive for next Wednesday likely producing a round of thunderstorms.  Even warmer temperatures should follow late next week into the weekend with highs pushing into the low-mid 70s!  Another round of even healthier (possibly severe)  storms may follow for next Sunday.  As we start to see the warmer temperatures ahead of frontal troughs over the next few weeks the risk of severe weather will increase with each system.  Normally our spring severe weather season begins in the latter part of February, but given this El Nino winter pattern it is not unusual to have more frequent severe weather events starting as early as late January.  At least for this weekend it will just be a rain event.  Have a great weekend and Geaux Saints!  Rob