KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Finally the sun made an appearance Friday setting the stage for a very nice weekend.  Lots of sun mixed with some high level cirrus clouds are in the forecast for Acadiana’s Saturday with unabated sun expected for Sunday.  Temperatures will cool as high pressure builds in throughout the weekend with highs cooling a few more degrees for Sunday.  Temperatures Saturday night and Sunday night may approach the frost zone so make sure the tender vegetation is protected…especially for Monday morning.  Sunny and mild conditions with highs reaching back into the 60s are expected for Monday afternoon.  Stormy conditions will likely take shape for mid-next week…more below.  Drier weather with chilly conditions should return for Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and and hopefully the following weekend.

We certainly do not need any more rain this month…record breaking rainfall for December in New Iberia is officially at 14.20″.  Some spots in Iberia and St Mary Parish (as well as much of Eastern Louisiana through New Orleans) have been even wetter with 15-20″ hot-spots.  Rainfall totals in Lafayette are approaching 9″.  Unfortanuetly there will be at least another two wet and stormy systems in the offing before the month ends.  It has also been a dreary month with just three days of sun so far this month with eleven days of wet to very wet weather.  At least this weekend (and hopefully Christmas and next weekend) will be a little a little payback!   

The next weather trouble-maker is taking shape for mid-next week with the threat of heavy rainfall and this time around, severe weather.  While early in the forecast game we could see a significant tornadic event for Louisiana by Tuesday night or Wednesday…so stay tuned.  Rob

Yet another cold, rainy day in Acadiana.  The El Nino pattern predicted to keep us on the wet side this fall and winter, and so far Mother Nature has followed through.  Gulf Low after Gulf Low after Gulf Low has developed and moved up the Texas coastline this fall bringing storms, rains, flooding, and even a bit of snow.  This month we haven’t had much of a break here in Acadiana, generally getting additional rains about every two days.  Since October, across Acadiana, we’ve seen measurable rain on nearly half of the days.  If you take out November, which was relatively dry, then 2/3 of all days have seen some sort of precip.

So far, only the record rainfall for the month of December is threatened in New Iberia.  The record is 14.06 inches of rain.  Not yet taking in the rain for today, we’re sitting at 11.40″ for the month.  Expect 1/2″ to an inch today which should put us within 2 inches of the record with two weeks to go.  Unless we get some crazy downpours here in Lafayette in the next couple of weeks, I think the record is safe.  Lafayette’s record is 15.74 inches, and not including the rain today, we’re still at 6.91″ for the month.  Take into consideration the drought we had during the spring and early summer, you’ll find that Lafayette is still 1/2″ below normal for the year, while New Iberia is 1/2″ above.  Finishing a year close to the normal value is rare.  In Lafayette, only twice in the last eight years have we finished a year within 5 inches of the normal.  We did it the last two years, below normal both times.  4.41 below the normal for 2007, and 2.89 inches below for 2008.  The other six years, we missed the normal on average by 15 inches!

After this current low drifts across the northern Gulf into Mississippi and Alabama, we should see the rains letting up tonight.  Skies should clear toward the morning hours and we’re expecting sunshine for most of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  Dry weather might hold on until Tuesday of next week.  Another system will move across the midwest on the 23rd and Christmas Eve bringing another shot of rain.  This system could bring a rare white Christmas to parts of the south including parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas!  Today’s model tells me that Snow Angels here at home will be made in the mud this Christmas!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

 

Another low pressure system is cranking up in the Western Gulf of Mexico and it will bring rain back to Acadiana Thursday.  This time around the rains shouldn’t be too heavy with generally 1/2 to one inch of rain expected across the I-10 parishes of Acadiana.  Lighter amounts will be likely farther to the north, but farther to the south rainfall totals of 1-2 inches will be possible along the coastal parishes, particularly for St Mary.  Rainfall may approach the 2-4″ range for Southeastern Louisiana…folks who do not need anymore rain.  Fortunately rainfall rates will not be as robust as the last system we saw in Acadiana and the rain totals should be stretched out over a longer period of time so I am not anticipating flood problems at this time but will have to keep a watchful eye over the coastal parishes just in case.  The rain will end late Thursday night with partly sunny skies in the forecast for Friday.  A vigorous, but dry, cold front will push through the area Saturday keeping our highs in the 50s (maybe upper 40s) and will bring lows down into the low-mid 30s for Sunday and Monday mornings.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a pretty healthy frost come Monday morning with the possibility of light freezes for both Sunday and Monday mornings.  Milder temperatures and generally dry conditions will stay with us through Tuesday of next week and then it gets interesting again.  Although long-range forecasting in an El Nino winter is kin to meteorological suicide, we’ll give it a try!!!  It looks quite warm and wet for mid-next week with perhaps a severe weather episode for either next Wednesday or Thursday, Christmas Eve, but latest models are hinting more toward a Wednesday night event.  Then colder air is expected to spill into the area around Christmas Day with a secondary surge of arctic air possible a day or two later.  There may be the possibility a winter weather event a few days after Christmas, but the models are looking definitively cold the last few days of the month…we’ll see.

The “El Nino-enhanced” active sub-tropical jetstream will likely keep the clouds with us through mid-week with rain likely to return for Thursday.  We certainly don’t need any more rain with our grounds at complete saturation but at least the next weather system should keep the heavier rains offshore with mostly light to moderate rain expected with the next system.  Area-wide rain totals from yesterday and last night were generally in the 1-3″ range with coastal hot-spots of 4-6″ found in Vermilion, Iberia, St Mary and St Martin (Upper and Lower) Parishes.  Fortunately there were no major reports of flooding in homes in Acadiana but that wasn’t the case apparently over eastern Louisiana.  breezy and quite cool weather will stay with us for Wednesday with a few breaks in the clouds possible but not likely…in fact we probably won’t see much sun until the weekend.  As I mentioned earlier, rain will return Thursday as yet another low pressure system gets cranked up in the western Gulf of Mexico.  This system should stay a little farther offshore bring mostly light to moderate over-running rains to the area…but once again the coastal parishes will have the best opportunity for more soaking rain…no break for the weary.  Lingering clouds, drier and decidely colder weather should move in for Friday into the weekend with plenty of sun expected for both Saturday and Sunday.  Colder, slightly modified arctic air should move in Saturday keeping our highs near 50 with overnight lows possibly near freezing or slightly below by Sunday morning.  It looks dry at least through early-mid next week but if I were making a forecast off of the long-range models today I would be guessing cloudy, cool and occasionally wet for Christmas Eve/Day time-frame…but that will likely change…so stay tuned!

Busy in the WeatherLab again today…here’s the latest crawl we are running on air…FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS are in effect through 1015pm for LAFAYETTE, VERMILION, ST MARTIN, IBERIA and ST MARY PARISHES…A FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for all of Acadiana through Tuesday…Locally heavy thunderstorms should continue over southeastern portions of Acadiana this evening and will redevelop overnight through tomorrow in other locations…Activity will be capable of producing 3-5 inches of rain in just a few hours resulting in localized street flooding…Isolated spots may see 4-6 inches or more through tomorrow which may result in more serious flooding…

Upper level forcing will keep showers and storms with us through tomorrow with ample lift behind a cool front (keeping us wet) that will push across the area early Tuesday morning.  Temperatures will drop nicely through the 50s Tuesday and into the low-mid 40s for Wednesday morning.  The clouds will likely stay with us behind the front with yet another low pressure system forming in the Gulf Wednesday/Thursday.  Patchy light rain or drizzle will likely move back into the area for late Wednesday with a round of rain possible through Thursday.  There are hints that the next weather system may stay far enough offshore to warrant lower rain chances mid-week, but recent weather patterns dictate a wetter forecast to be the most prudent at this time.  It should finally clear out and dry out for Friday into the weekend!

Very warm moist air has over taken the region again as a warm front is lifting northward.  This front will lift to the I-10 corridor so temperatures will run from the mid 70s toward Morgan City down to the low 60s for northwestern sections of Acadiana.    Fog has been a problem this morning with visibilities dropping to 1/8 mile in some places.  I think the fog will lift faster over the coastal parishes as the warm front moves in, the farther inland areas will keep the fog until midday.  While the front is in place several disturbances will roll across the area getting the showers and thunderstorms going once again.  Along and south of the warm front will have the best chance for thunderstorms and heavy downpours.  Unfortunately those are the areas that were hard hit with heavy rain twice last week.  North of the front expect rain, heavy at times, but not as much thunder.  The first series of disturbances will move through today, then we should get a few hours of a break from the rain this evening.  Then the cold front moves in.

As the cold front drifts in from the northwest, there will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere.  In fact 150-200% of the normal value of water will be available when the front enters the area.  As the cold front advances, the air will lift creating rain and more thunderstorms.  With the active jet stream in place, additional storms will develop and run a southwest to northeast pattern.  Much of the same that we saw in the flooding areas last week.  Most forecasts are calling for a general 2-3″ rainfall across Acadiana between now and Tuesday afternoon.  Isolated pockets of 3-5″ totals are possible over Vermilion, St. Martin, Iberia, and St. Mary parishes.  The New Orleans area is watching this forecast especially close, since they had flooding rains most of the weekend.  As of this writing, we’ve already seem some heavy downpours with thunderstorms over St. Mary parish this morning, and additional rains are lining up over the Gulf, poised to move inland over those same areas.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area.  Most of the Acadiana area can take on 3-4″ of rain over a 6 hour period before flooding begins.  The main concern will be flash flooding in isolated areas like we saw Tuesday.  This Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect until at least Tuesday morning.

After the front moves through early tomorrow, rains will continue through at least the early afternoon hours.  Temperatures will start near 60, but drop to near 50 by Tuesday afternoon.  Dry air is expected to move in for the rest of the week.  There are some hints at rain again for Friday, hopefully that won’t pan out so we can get an extended drying period. 

I know many of you are getting sick of all of the rain, but we’re making up for the drought situation we experienced early in the year.  Even with a record setting October, and now in some places on record pace for December, most reporting locations are still a couple of inches below normal for the year, including New Iberia and Lafayette.  2009 seems to be a year of ups and downs, but in the end will look pretty normal overall.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

The front end of our weekend will be marred by another low pressure system in the Gulf that will bring another round of widespread rain into the region.  Cloudy and quite cool conditions will persist through Friday afternoon with patchy light rain/sprinkles developing along the coast by midday advancing inland during the afternoon.  Widespread rain will be likely Friday night through at least Saturday morning with rain totals expected to be in th 1-2 inch range.  Isolated spots may get more, especially along the coastal parishes where some embedded elevated heavier showers and storms may develop.  This low pressure system will be slow to move out of the Gulf and will likely weaken as it moves right over Acadiana Saturday.  This means lingering showers and overcast skies will continue through much of Saturday with fog and drizzle becoming quite likely for Saturday evening and night.  We are cautiously optimistic that drier and milder air will move in for Sunday allowing for some intervals of sun and pushing temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Incidentally for our offshore friends this Friday/Friday night system looks to be close to another “gale” storm so batten down the hatches and expect 30kt winds or better with heavy rains and embedded strong storms.  Yet another weather system will likely bring rough offshore conditions with showers and storms to Acadiana late Monday into Monday night with another couple of inches of rain possible…will it ever end?  Hopefully drier and cooler weather will move in and stay for the mid-latter part of next week.  It still looks interesting as we go into Christmas week with cold air lurking and another active storm system in the mix…the latest model run has backed off somewhat, but our odds for a white Christmas in Acadiana are generally 1000-1…this year it may be closer to100-1 or less!  Something possibly to look forward to while we remain mired in this dreary El Nino pattern!

Acadiana’s weather pattern will stay decidedlyon the cool side and dry through Friday morning.  Breezy and cold conditions are on tap for tonight with north winds ushering our temperatures down into the mid-30s for morning.  Wind chills tomorrow morning should be in the mid-upper 30s so bundle up!  Thursday will bring partly sunny skies accented by in and out high cirrus cloud cover.  Temperatures should top out in the lower 50s Thursday.  The high clouds will likely increase and thicken Thursday night with cloudy and cool conditions likely for most if not all of Friday.  Patchy light rain and/or drizzle will develop Friday afternoon with steadier rain likely for Friday night into early Saturday.  The next developing Gulf system will be slow to move so rain chances have been pushed well into Saturday, but hopefully drier conditions will move in for Saturday night.  At this point though I do not expect much if any sun on Saturday.  Behind this next system there will not be any cold air advection so I expect partly sunny and mild conditions for our Sunday.  Unfortunately, yet another wet-weather system will arrive for Monday/Tuesday of next week.  Rain totals with the Friday/Saturday system should be in the 1-1.5 inch range, especially along the coastal parishes (who need the moisture the least).  Monday/Tuesday’s weather system should be capable of heavier showers and perhaps embedded storms so another 2-3″ rain or more will be possible then.  Of note, these El Nino “enhanced” weather systems have been regularly coming in wetter than advertised by the models so flood issues may arise again, especially for early next week.  Interestingly enough, some pretty cold weather may surge southward mid-late next week just in time for another developing low in the Gulf for next Friday.  This system could lead to a wintry mix close to home with perhaps a decent shot of arctic air the following weekend.  Stay tuned!

Heavy rainfall led to widespread flooding during the early morning hours across portions of Iberia and St Mary Parishes.  Storm total rainfall accumulations ranged up to 6-9″.  Rain totals were in the 6-7″ range in and near New Iberia and Jeanerette into portions of St Mary Parish with over 8.5″ reported in the Centerville area in St Mary Parish.  Fortunately the showers and storms did not reorganize Tuesday afternoon/evening with just on and off showers anticipated through this evening.  Rain chances should end by midnight but fog should follow.  The National Weather Servicehas issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the area as the winds are expected to relax in a nearly saturated lower atmosphere.  The fog should lift quickly around daybreak or shortly thereafter as drier west -northwest winds will freshen and increase from the north-northwest.  Temperatures will stay rather mild this evening in the upper 60s but should drop into the mid-upper 50s tomorrow morning.  In fact, it may chill down several degrees during the day in spite of mostly sunny skies.  So it will likely feel cooler by lunch time so make sure you send the kids and yourself off with a jacket or sweater.  Breezy and cold conditions will move in for our Wednesday night with lows by Thursday morning likely to be in the mid-upper 30s.  While Wednesday and Thursday will be partly to mostly sunny and cool clouds will return Thursday night with rain not far behind on Friday.  Friday’s weather system may produce and inch or two of rain, especially along the coastal parishes, but I am not expected a repeat of what ocurred over the last 24 hours.  A wetter and stormier weather system however is on the docket for early next week.  In between, we’ll characterize this weekend as partly cloudy and seasonably mild.  Slight rain chances on the 8 Day Forecast this weekend are a hedge on the leftover Friday system and for the following system early next week.  It remains rather obvious that an active, hard to time El Nino storm pattern will stay with us through Christmas…no rest for the meteorologists nor our saturated grounds.

A stalled front yesterday has moved northward today bringing warm humid air to the region.  As the front sat still yesterday, rainfall developed over parts of St. Mary and Iberia Parishes.  New Iberia’s Acadiana Regional Airport set a daily rainfall record of 3.79″.  After midnight, rain developed over Vermilion Bay and the northern Gulf of Mexico and started heading toward the northeast.  Additional rain developed and moved northeast over the same areas.  By sunrise, an additional 3-5 inches of rain had fallen.  Some radar estimates over Iberia and St. Mary are in the 6-10″ range for the 24 hour period.

Because of the saturated ground and the heavy rains this morning, many reports of flooding came in from those areas.  Many roads were flooded, and homes were taking in water in New Iberia, Lydia, and Patoutville.  For a while parts of Center Street near Avery Island Road was flooded leaving drivers stranded.  The West End of New Iberia along Hopkins Street was another are hard hit by flooding.  Many of the new frontage roads along US 90 in Iberia Parish were also inundated.

Additional rains are forecast today as warm, moist air moves overhead, and a strong low pressure area over the Rockies moves east.  Gusty winds are expected today out of the south.  Some gusts could exceed 25 mph.  Some parts of Acadiana will receive an additional 1-3″ of rain before our cold front moves through later tonight.  There is also a slight chance that some storms may become severe.  Dry weather is expected for Wednesday and Thursday.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com