KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Rain and embedded rumbles of thunder will be likely for our Wednesday as low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico this Tuesday evening.  The surface low this time around won’t be a deep one but this system has plenty of upper support which will likely generate rain and elevated embedded thunderstorms, especially for our Wednesday afternoon.  Since this system is more elevated in nature we are not expecting any organized severe weather.  Estimating rainfall totals has become quite problematic with almost all of the models coming in with rain totals of an inch or less today.  But as we have been saying all along in this El Nino enhanced winter…”go with a wetter forecast”.  With that being said, rain accumulations should be generally between .10-.25″ overnight with 1-2″ the best forecast at this point for Wednesday.  The rains should stay below flooding thresholds, but if the embedded storms can get cranking and train over a particular area then isolated amounts up to 3″ could be possible.  The rain and storms should end sometime tomorrow evening with lingering clouds and fog possible for Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Thursday should bring mostly cloudy skies with a few intervals of sun and mild temperatures, but a fairly strong cold front should push across the area for New Year’s Eve possibly engendering a few light showers.  Friday and Saturday will be blustery with highs ranging in the upper 40s to lower 50s while lows drop into the low-mid 30s.  Next week continues to look rather interesting with the coldest air of the season edging into our area.  Combine that with an hyper-active sub-tropical jet stream and then wintry weather could become an issue.  Right now the models have been tilting toward a drier but cold solution for early-mid next week…but we’ll see what Mr. El Nino and friends may have in store.  The bottom line though is that we may indeed see lows dropping into the mid-upper 20s by next Wednesday morning with highs struggling to make the 40s…stay tuned!