Our in-house computer model has come in wetter today for our Wednesday weather system with the 15z (900am) run coming in the wettest of the day so far(see the enclosed graphic). Like nearly every El Nino enhanced system this month, storm systems have been coming in as wet or wetter than most computer guidance. Sowhen our in-house model paints a picture with widespread 2-4″ rain totals we pay attention. Right now the NWS is indicating 1-2″ and the NCEP Quantitative Precipition Forecasts are going with a solid 2″…but I would bet that both government entities will go with more by tomorrow. Therefore, do not be surprised if we see flood watches posted for Wednesday. Our saturated grounds will be able to take 1-2″ of rain but anything more than that will become problematic yielding to street ponding, then street flooding etc. While there will probably be embedded thunder with this system, especially along the coastal parishes, at this time I am not expecting much of a severe weather threat. But if there will be thunder, there will be a higher likelihood of flooding conditions so stay tuned.
