Finally we were able to enjoy a nice weekend across Acadiana. The last time we had a Friday, Saturday, Sunday run with no rain was the weekend after Thanksgiving. We deserve it! Today and tomorrow should be just fine, but things turn sour for Wednesday and the early part of Christmas Eve. Expect sunshine today as temperatures finally climb back to near normal for this time of the year. We should be in the low to mid 60s for highs. Tomorrow we’ll see clouds increasing as the southerly flow cranks up. Tuesday’s high should be near 70 degrees!
As a system winds up over the plains, moisture will continue to flow in Tuesday night. By Wednesday we should be seeing some showers develop. This low over the Texas panhandle will intensify while coupled with a strong upper level jet stream that will help to fire up thunderstorms along the cold front. As the cold front moves eastward, a squall line will develop from Dallas to Houston Wednesday night. Thursday (Christmas Eve) morning that squall line will march northeast. The strongest storms should run from Lake Charles to Shreveport and then extend into Arkansas. Most of Acadiana will be at the tail end of this squall line, so most of the severe weather should remain over central and mainly northern Louisiana. Damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes will be possible with these storms. The jet stream dynamics will weaken as the storms move across the Mississippi River, so expect the storms to be less severe over Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley. Rainfall totals are forecast to be in the 1-2″ range, only adding to the very wet December totals, and upping rainfall totals from New Iberia to New Orleans that have already topped their records for the month.
The cold front should move through the area around midday Thursday. Temperatures Christmas Eve should start out in the mid to upper 60s, but then drop in the afternoon as the rains ease. By the evening of Christmas Eve we should be dropping into the 40s while skies clear. Christmas Day looks sunny and pleasantly cool. We’ll start Christmas morning around 40 degrees with highs only reaching the upper 50s.
The following Saturday and Sunday should be dry and cool too. Looks like we’ve got at least one more system to round out the year, and then the pattern will shift back to those El Nino coastal storms starting late New Year’s Day 2010. Also showing up in the models is an Arctic outbreak of cold air diving southward across the upper midwest around January 5th. It’s still too early to tell how far south this cold air will drop, but it does look like some of the coldest air so far this fall/winter.
StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker
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