A cold front that will sweep across the area this New Year’s Eve will usher the mild weather away from Acadiana for at least the next week to 10 days.  Expect scattered light showers later this evening into the early morning hours following a moderately strong cold that will bring our temperatures down 15-20 degrees compared with a very mild last day of 2009.  Skies will clear by morning with blustery north winds expected Friday making it feel that much cooler.  Temperatures will drop close to or slightly below freezing starting late Friday night with chilly conditions likely to get a reinforcing shot of cold air early next week.   The models are showing a better shot arctic air possible later next week with the long range 12z GFS model guidance showing mid-20s for the low next Thursday night/Friday morning…we will go with that right now but this number will likely change.  The bottom line is that we will stay “winter-cold” through much of next week with a slight chance of some precipitation, perhaps icy weather, developing late Wednesday into Thursday of next week…so stay tuned!  Happy New Year!  Rob

After our soaking Wednesday it looks like drier and mild weather…for the most part will finish off our 2009.  Fog may become the immediate issue for tonight through tomorrow morning as light winds following the rainfall today may force the low cloud deck to settle down toward the ground.  Foggy/cloudy conditions will likely be part of the start of our Thursday but we are cautiously optimistic that Acadiana may see a few intervals of sun tomorrow afternoon.  Temperatures Thursday should top out in the mid-60s.  A healthy cold front will race toward the area for our New Year’s Eve with the models robust enough aloft to possibly generate a few quick-moving showers or sprinkles right around the stroke of midnight give or take a few hours.  Temperatures will drop back to about 10 degrees below normal for Friday and Saturday but there at least will be plenty of sunshine.  As for Sunday into next week the models have changed their tune with respect to the colder air we thought we might see into next week.  Instead of a good shot of arctic air it may just be a glancing blow at best.  Atmospheric thermal profiles suggest a continuation of below normal temperatures along with some sun and clouds Sunday through Thursday, and relative low end precipitation chances…I don’t see any overt storm systems until around the 10th/11th of the month…with chilly air lurking nearby it will keep it rather interesting for the winter weather wishcasters!

    One ingredient needed for a storm to be classified as severe is hail and that hail must be a certain size.  The National Weather Service is changing that policy with the new year.  This is the posting from the NWS Lake Charles Office:

Rain and embedded rumbles of thunder will be likely for our Wednesday as low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico this Tuesday evening.  The surface low this time around won’t be a deep one but this system has plenty of upper support which will likely generate rain and elevated embedded thunderstorms, especially for our Wednesday afternoon.  Since this system is more elevated in nature we are not expecting any organized severe weather.  Estimating rainfall totals has become quite problematic with almost all of the models coming in with rain totals of an inch or less today.  But as we have been saying all along in this El Nino enhanced winter…”go with a wetter forecast”.  With that being said, rain accumulations should be generally between .10-.25″ overnight with 1-2″ the best forecast at this point for Wednesday.  The rains should stay below flooding thresholds, but if the embedded storms can get cranking and train over a particular area then isolated amounts up to 3″ could be possible.  The rain and storms should end sometime tomorrow evening with lingering clouds and fog possible for Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Thursday should bring mostly cloudy skies with a few intervals of sun and mild temperatures, but a fairly strong cold front should push across the area for New Year’s Eve possibly engendering a few light showers.  Friday and Saturday will be blustery with highs ranging in the upper 40s to lower 50s while lows drop into the low-mid 30s.  Next week continues to look rather interesting with the coldest air of the season edging into our area.  Combine that with an hyper-active sub-tropical jet stream and then wintry weather could become an issue.  Right now the models have been tilting toward a drier but cold solution for early-mid next week…but we’ll see what Mr. El Nino and friends may have in store.  The bottom line though is that we may indeed see lows dropping into the mid-upper 20s by next Wednesday morning with highs struggling to make the 40s…stay tuned!

Our in-house computer model has come in wetter today for our Wednesday weather system with the 15z (900am) run coming in the wettest of the day so far(see the enclosed graphic).  Like nearly every El Nino enhanced system this month, storm systems have been coming in as wet or wetter than most computer guidance.  Sowhen our in-house model paints a picture with widespread 2-4″ rain totals we pay attention.  Right now the NWS is indicating 1-2″ and the NCEP Quantitative Precipition Forecasts are going with a solid 2″…but I would bet that both government entities will go with more by tomorrow.  Therefore, do not be surprised if we see flood watches posted for Wednesday.  Our saturated grounds will be able to take 1-2″ of rain but anything more than that will become problematic yielding to street ponding, then street flooding etc.  While there will probably be embedded thunder with this system, especially along the coastal parishes, at this time I am not expecting much of a severe weather threat.   But if there will be thunder, there will be a higher likelihood of flooding conditions so stay tuned. 

The parade of El Nino enhanced Gulf of Mexico low pressure systems will continue this week with another system developing Tuesday/Wednesday.  An upper level low/trough off the coast of Baja/California will make a bee-line for the area developing a low pressure system off the Texas Coast Tuesday.  This will bring clouds back into the area Tuesday with soaking rains likely developing Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Current computer models are indicating efficient delivery of the rain process which will likely lead to 2-3″ of rain to the area with the possibility of more based that nearly every storm system over the last month has come in more dynamic than advertised by the models.  There shouldn’t be any severe weather with this system but embedded storms are certainly possible especially over the coastal parishes and Southeastern Louisiana, where 2-4″ or more will be possible.  Like nearly every system this year it will be another rough one offshore mid-week.  So it looks like we’ll be finishing off a record wet December with more wetness unfortunately.  Thursday should be dry and mild but quick-moving showers will probably redevelop for New Year’s Eve with a strong cold front.  It will be nice and cold with sunny skies for the first few days of the new year with light freezes possible come Saturday and Sunday mornings.  Rob

As expected, strong thunderstorms made their way into Acadiana during the morning hours of Christmas Eve.  Several tornado warnings were issued as the squall line pushed through.  Many of the tornadic thunderstorms developed just ahead of the main squall line which was something I was looking out for, and mentioned yesterday in the blog.

So far this morning we have about eight unofficial reports of tornadoes.  The first report came from Acadia Parish just north of Crowley.  Around 7:35am, the Atwood Acres subdivision saw damage to a number of homes.  No injuries were reported.   Not long after that report, we received word that a possible tornado damaged a house and barn near Iota.  Just five minutes later the Acadia Parish Sheriff’s Office reported  a pair of tornadoes heading north on Highway 13.  Another storm was reported near Gueydan at 8:00am with damage to a building possibly trapping one person.  In Church Point at 8:45, we received a report of a tornado tearing the roof off a house.  Near Whiteville in St. Landry Parish a church was blown off of its foundation, also numerous trees were reported down near the Lebeau community.  Yet again a report of a tornado in Acadia Parish near the town of Iota where there was damage to another home.  In Scott we received word of a tree that had fallen on a home due to high winds.  Not long after that report, we received word from authorities there that a man had died in the home.  It appeared that the man was sleeping when the tree fell.  44 year old Ryan Hebert of Scott was pronounced dead at the scene.  All of the areas that experienced damage were under warnings before the storms hit.  National Weather Service survey teams will be out today to determine what areas officially experienced tornadoes, and how strong they were.

Click the picture above to open a new page with damage pictures sent in to us by you, our viewers.  I’ll be away for a while over the holidays.  Prayers go out to those suffering from the storms today.  Hopefully everyone has a wonderful and safe Christmas.  See you in 2010.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

Rain Wrapped Tornado

A severe weather event may be taking shape across the southern United States late tonight and tomorrow.  The bulk of the severe weather will run in the ArkLaTex eastward toward the Mississippi Delta.  Strong storms are possible here in Acadiana with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes possible.  Heavy rains will accompany these storms, so rain wrapped tornadoes during the darkness hours can be a recipe for disaster.  Many of the deadly tornado outbreaks we see during the winter months occur overnight, in areas not accustomed to tornado activity this time of year.

Several things are coming together for this weather scenario:

The moisture source will be the Gulf of Mexico.  Already this morning we’re seeing the moisture riding northward on strong southerly winds near the surface.  Dew Points today have risen a good 10 degrees over the last 24 hours across southern Louisiana and southeast Texas.  66 degree dew points are noted as far north as Dallas, and 70+ degree dew points are seen across the Gulf to the Texas coastline, and just offshore of Louisiana.  Air temperatures are expected to push into the low to mid 70s across the region by this afternoon.

A strong upper level low is noted over the four corners states heading east.  Another spin is noted near the Montana/Canada border heading southeast forcing a surface low pressure area to develop over the Texas panhandle.  That surface low (along with the Canadian deal) will pull cold air at the surface down through the plains, generating a strong cold front.  That cold air will collide with warm moist air that will be in place over Texas, and eventually Louisiana.  At the same time the upper level system over the desert southwest will reach maturity around midnight over eastern Texas.  A squall line that will form ahead of the front this afternoon over central Texas will strengthen as it moves eastward peaking out at the Texas/Louisiana state line very early Thursday.  As the upper low from the west matures, it will swing toward the northeast bringing the severe storms through the ArkLaTex.  The lower end of this line of storms has the potential to be strong to severe as strong winds in the lower levels will persist over Acadiana.  Right now damaging winds are possible here in Acadiana, while the main tornado threat will remain farther north.  There are some indications though, that isolated storms well ahead of the squall line could have the potential for rotation, so there’s your isolated tornado threat for Acadiana.  Keep in mind these storms are possible several hours before the main line of storms blasts through.

Here’s the timing.  Scattered showers will develop during the midday hours.  Some thunderstorms are possible as we head toward the evening.  Rain chances will increase after midnight.  Midnight to sunrise will be the time frame for the “isolated rotating thunderstorms”.  I find these situations more dangerous because they have a mind of their own, develop quickly, and are well ahead of the main line.  The cold front will force the squall line into western sections of Acadiana just before daybreak.  That line will progress through the area and should move out by early afternoon.  The rains will end, the front will follow, and temperatures will drop.  Expect the temp to climb into the mid 60s early in the day with temperatures falling into the upper 40s by sunset.  Rainfall totals are expected to be in the 1-2 inch range.

Skies will clear Christmas Eve night and Santa will have a brisk northerly wind to ride in on from the North Pole.  Christmas morning will be clear and chilly with temperatures starting in the mid to upper 30s.  Sunshine Christmas Day should bump the temps to the mid 50s, but cold air advection (movement of air) will continue over the weekend.  That cold air will be going over a large area of snow pack that will blanket most of the plains and Midwest tonight and tomorrow, so the air will stay refrigerated.  Below normal temperatures are expected to last into next week with a few areas touching the freezing point this weekend and early next week.  Rain chances will be slim to none Saturday through Tuesday.

Chris and I will be watching the radars closely.  It looks like we’ll be meeting during the overnight hours if severe weather coverage is needed.  Stay tuned.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com

Another strong storm system developing on the West Coast will be a big weather-maker for the nation’s mid-section Wednesday and Thursday.  In Acadiana, this will translate to the possibility of a couple of rounds of severe weather and several inches of rain.  The Storm Prediction Centerhas portions of Acadiana hatched in for a “slight” risk of severe storms Wednesday into Thursday but based on the dynamics of this weather system there may be an upgrade to a “moderate” risk especially for Central Louisiana on northward.  I would expect scattered showers and storms to develop Wednesday afternoon with the possibility of rotating storms.  Veering winds aloft with this energetic storm system could produce tornadoes so expect a tornado watch to be issued for portions of the area by late Wednesday into Wednesday night.  The main frontal trough and upper low won’t get here until late Wednesday night or very early Thursday and there will likely be a continued threat of severe weather with the primary mode switching to wind damaging thunderstorms associated with a squall line, but isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out.  As Dave indicated in the previous entry the greatest risk of severe weather should be over northern portions of Acadiana and points to the north but we’ll be watching this one closely.  Skies should begin to clear for Thursday afternoon with sunny and cool conditions likely for Christmas Day into the weekend.  The pattern will stay active with another wet-weather-maker likely by the 29th/30th and a couple more in the first week of the new year…our ground is quite saturated so the threat of flood hazards may stay with us into 2010.  I’ll be enjoying Christmas with the family over the next few days and will be back on shift Sunday so have a very Merry Christmas!  Rob

Finally we were able to enjoy a nice weekend across Acadiana.  The last time we had a Friday, Saturday, Sunday run with no rain was the weekend after Thanksgiving.  We deserve it!  Today and tomorrow should be just fine, but things turn sour for Wednesday and the early part of Christmas Eve.  Expect sunshine today as temperatures finally climb back to near normal for this time of the year.  We should be in the low to mid 60s for highs.  Tomorrow we’ll see clouds increasing as the southerly flow cranks up.  Tuesday’s high should be near 70 degrees! 

As a system winds up over the plains, moisture will continue to flow in Tuesday night.  By Wednesday we should be seeing some showers develop.  This low over the Texas panhandle will intensify while coupled with a strong upper level jet stream that will help to fire up thunderstorms along the cold front.  As the cold front moves eastward, a squall line will develop from Dallas to Houston Wednesday night.  Thursday (Christmas Eve) morning that squall line will march northeast.  The strongest storms should run from Lake Charles to Shreveport and then extend into Arkansas.  Most of Acadiana will be at the tail end of this squall line, so most of the severe weather should remain over central and mainly northern Louisiana.  Damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes will be possible with these storms.  The jet stream dynamics will weaken as the storms move across the Mississippi River, so expect the storms to be less severe over Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley.  Rainfall totals are forecast to be in the 1-2″ range, only adding to the very wet December totals, and upping rainfall totals from New Iberia to New Orleans that have already topped their records for the month.

The cold front should move through the area around midday Thursday.  Temperatures Christmas Eve should start out in the mid to upper 60s, but then drop in the afternoon as the rains ease.  By the evening of Christmas Eve we should be dropping into the 40s while skies clear.  Christmas Day looks sunny and pleasantly cool.  We’ll start Christmas morning around 40 degrees with highs only reaching the upper 50s. 

The following Saturday and Sunday should be dry and cool too.  Looks like we’ve got at least one more system to round out the year, and then the pattern will shift back to those El Nino coastal storms starting late New Year’s Day 2010.  Also showing up in the models is an Arctic outbreak of cold air diving southward across the upper midwest around January 5th.  It’s still too early to tell how far south this cold air will drop, but it does look like some of the coldest air so far this fall/winter.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am

weather@katctv.com