KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG
Here are the updated numbers for Hurricane Ida. Forecast track is much the same. Must note as the storm approaches the US the winds will be quite gusty. I will put a special explanation together for you and post to the Internet.
Will keep you posted on any changes on the forecast track for Hurricane Ida.
An interesting weather scenario is expected to develop in the Gulf this weekend bringing our gorgeous weather to a brief end, allowing for healthy rain chances, gusty winds and possibly minor coastal flooding. An upper level low crossing the SW U.S. is expected to draw deep tropical moisture from a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche northward Sunday. An area of “non-tropical” low pressure may develop with this feature this weekend allowing for a tightening pressure gradient and subsequently higher winds and rough seas in the Gulf. In addition, tides are expected to rise 2-3ft above normal with this feature which could lead to some minor coastal flooding across Acadiana. This is also of interest where the Sabine River (which has been in moderate to major flood stage) deposits into the Gulf keeping areas along the Sabine in a flood environment for a while. Coastal flooding will likely be worse for the eastern parishes of Louisiana south and east of New Orleans.
Adding to the uncertainty in the Gulf is Tropical System Ida which is now back out over open water and is expected to gain tropical storm status soon. Ida’s circulation will likely push toward the south-central Gulf and perhaps get mixed-up with the non-tropical low that will be pushing into our area Monday. Ida should not threaten inland areas of Acadiana but with strong high pressure anchored along the U.S. east coast and plenty of low pressure in the Gulf, tropical storm conditions and winds may spread through much of the Gulf of Mexico.
The offshore community should prepare for at the very least moderate tropical storm conditions for Monday and Tuesday (35-45 knot winds). The while mess will get pushed eastward toward Florida for mid-week. Weatherwise expect another gorgeous Saturday punctuated by high level cirrus clouds. Sunday we’ll see an increase in cloud cover with deeper tropical moisture and rain chances arriving Monday. In addition, on Sunday breezy conditions will develop and it could get downright blustery and “tropical depression/storm-like” across Acadiana perhaps on Monday. While there is a threat of heavy rains and a slight risk of severe weather with this system, most of it should bypass us to the east…but we will be watching this very closely so stay tuned. Right now expect a couple of inches of rain and windy conditions for Monday. Wind-wise across Acadiana I would expect gusty easterly winds near 15-22mph Sunday increasing to 20-30mph Sunday night into Monday. Gusty northeast to north winds could follow Tuesday. The rains should end by early Tuesday with a nice and dry weather pattern to return for mid-late next week. Make sure you check in with us at KATC this weekend on the air and online for the latest on the expected storminess in the Gulf and the potential impacts upon Acadiana. Rob
It’s been a long time since we’ve had such an easy week here in the Weather Lab. I think I might have to go all the way back to the drought early in the summer where we had an entire work week with no rain. It looks like Chris might have an easy weekend coming up, but early next week looks more active.
First for this weekend, the ridge of high pressure in place over the southeast will hold through tomorrow. Sunny skies and mild temperatures will continue. By Sunday, the ridge will move eastward allowing disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche to drift north. Also, an upper level low that is moving onto the southern California coast will open up and move across Mexico. As that low moves into south Texas, it should also grab the moisture over the Bay of Campeche and move it northward. The initial wave of moisture will move in as cloud cover Sunday, but eventually rain will come in late Sunday night and into Monday. This scenario would be more of a classic “El Nino” type pattern that we see during the fall and winter months, and this track will become quite common through the winter. Therefore as far as an “El Nino” year is concerned, this would be a moderately easy forecast.
But the wild card is out there…Ida. Ida could easily make or break the forecast. First, as Ida was taking shape Wednesday near the coast of Nicaragua the thinking was “weak tropical storm” because it formed so close to the coastline. Most tropical systems this summer have gone the opposite way of what models were predicting, and Ida was no different. Instead, Ida decided to become a minimal hurricane just prior to landfall. Now Ida is a tropical depression, drifting over the Honduran border, and later today the center of circulation will move back over water. Strengthening is forecast as it moves northward toward the Yucatan.
The future of Ida is quite unusual for early November. Nearly all tropical systems that are located in the western Caribbean rapidly turn northeastward and move over either the northern islands of the Caribbean, Cuba, and even sometimes south Florida. The forecast track from the NHC drifts Ida into the central part of the Gulf of Mexico before a slight turn northeast toward the panhandle. No hurricanes have hit Louisiana during the month of November. Only four hurricanes have hit the USA in November, all of those hitting Florida. The last time was in 1985 when Hurricane Kate hit the panhandle as a Category 2. The other three hit south Florida in 1916, 1925, and 1935.
If Ida, and the other moisture from the Bay of Campeche make that turn toward the northeast, then rainfall totals shouldn’t be too heavy over Acadiana. As things look now, heaviest amounts of rain will occur from New Orleans toward the Florida panhandle. But with a strong ridge of high pressure over the middle part of the USA, a tight pressure gradient will persist over the Gulf. Therefore winds will pick up out of the east. Rough conditions could move in over the Gulf late Saturday and into Sunday. Also, if the winds stay out of the east, tides along the southeastern part of the state, as well as the west coast of Vermilion Bay, and the Cameron Parish coastline could be 1-2 feet above normal. Coastal flooding might be a minor problem late this weekend.
StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker
Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!
It got a little busier in the Weather Lab today as the area of disturbed weather in the Southwestern Caribbean was upgraded to a depression late this morning. Once hurricane hunters got into the system they discovered strong tropical storm force winds and upgraded the 11th tropical depression of the season to the 9th tropical storm of the Atlantic season. Tropical Storm Ida will likely move inland by tomorrow producing15-20 inches of rain in Nicaragua through Friday due to its slow movement. This system, if it survives landfall, may re-emerge on the Northwestern Caribbean and push northward toward the tip of the Yucatan by early next week. This system could ultimately get into the south-central Gulf as a viable tropical system but will likely get picked up by a frontal boundary that should be pushing through our part of the world by mid-next week. Adding more interest is the area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche that continues to fester with deep, unorganized tropical moisture. Development, or some hybrid development in the SW Gulf is not unheard of in early November and can’t be completely ruled out. As I have alluded to in past weathercasts, this disturbance will likely get drawn northward Sunday by a deepening upper low that develops over Mexico this weekend. Models are more aggressive in bringing rain chances back to the area by late Sunday and that’s reflected in the current forecast. In the near term, our gorgeous weather will continue through Saturday with slight cooling through Friday. Some high clouds spanning northeastward from the Campeche disturbance will begin to move into the area Friday thickening somewhat for Saturday, but it should still be quite pleasant. Sunday will start off partly sunny but should cloud up quickly with a good chance of scattered tropical showers and perhaps some thunderstorms developing Sunday late into Monday. It will be quite interesting with a frontal trough in the area working on the tropical moisture…it could mean more heavy rains for someone along the Gulf coast early next week. Finally, if Tropical Storm Ida makes it into the Gulf early next week, odds on favorite for this system would be for Florida about mid-next week. But with high pressure over the SE U.S. and low pressure in the southern Gulf moderate to rough conditions will develop offshore this weekend likely continuing at least through mid-next week. Stay tuned! Rob
Sunny skies and mild temperatures will continue for the rest of the week. Nice ridge of high pressure in control now as temperatures this morning dipped into the lower 50s. Sunshine will stick around today with highs reaching the mid 70s. A weak cold front will drift across the area later tonight, so fresh northerly breezes will be in place for Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures Thursday night will drop back into the upper 40s. Into the weekend, skies will be partly cloudy, then mostly cloudy for Sunday. Rain chances should hold off until the early part of next week.
The disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche will drift northward Monday and bring chances for rain again. This system will drift inland Tuesday and Wednesday. After that it should rapidly roll up the east coast, and could be a significant Nor’Easter by the end of next week bringing rain, snow, and wind to New England. Another storm system may move across the midwest the week of the 15th, followed by another system taking a more “El Nino” southern track by the 20th. After that models point to a sharp cold blast covering most the country east of the Rockies. Average first freeze for Acadiana is anywhere between the 20th of November, to the first week of December. Doesn’t it seem like yesterday we were in the 90s???
By the way, the other disturbance we talked about yesterday (97L) became Tropical Depression #11 this morning. It is located off the coast of Nicaragua with winds of 35mph. It has the potential to become a Tropical Storm later today. Right now it is drifting slowly off toward the northwest and may move inland over northeastern Nicaragua late tomorrow. Because it is so close to land, don’t expect this one to intensify much. The slow movement could cause flooding and mudslides especially if it moves toward the more mountainous regions of Honduras and El Salvador.
StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker
Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!
Our gorgeous weather pattern will continue for the rest of the week and into at least the front end of the weekend. High pressure will remain dominant across the area through Friday with mild days and cool nights ahead. A subtle decrease in temperatures will be possible Thursday into Friday as another surge of high pressure pushes into the region. The models are advertising changes for early next week but they do not agree on what exactly will transpire. Low pressure troughing will develop to our northwest early next week which should destabilize the atmosphere. At the same time moisture should be surging northward from the southern Gulf of Mexico. Currently disturbances in the Bay of Campeche and the SW Caribbean near Costa Rica are being monitored by the National Hurricane Center. The area in the Caribbean does have weak low pressure attached to it and hurricane hunters may actually invest the system if it becomes more organized through tomorrow. As Dave previously mentioned it has been quite the quiet tropical season with time running out. But with that being said it’s not unusual to have something running across the Caribbean November, but this time of year almost everything moves in a northeasterly manner. As for the area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche, upper winds and plentiful dry air feeding into the western Gulf should keep this system from developing tropically. But some of the models do indicate some hybridization possible with both systems turning into some sort of low near the Yucatan. We do think that at the very least with strong high pressure to the northeast and low pressure troughing developing to the west and south will allow the pressure gradient to tighten across the Gulf later this week into the weekend allowing fro brisk offshore conditions in particular. For now, weather-wise, Acadiana will continue to see plenty of sun into the weekend with high clouds beginning to invade for Sunday. I’m going with scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday of next week but confidence on how things are going to play out remains below normal after 5 days. Rob
Abundant sunshine and comfy temps will rule the forecast for the rest of the work week. Some humidity will creep in by Saturday, late day showers might return Sunday. Better rain chances next week. Temperatures will reach the mid 70s again today, tomorrow, and Thursday. Highs will approach 80 this weekend. Two cold fronts will roll through…one late today, another Thursday afternoon. Both of these will have little impact on the area. A few clouds may pass by, but temperatures will remain about the same.
Even though we don’t worry too much about hurricane season along the northern Gulf Coast once we get to November, occasionally we’ll see a tropical system develop elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. This morning there is an area of disturbed weather over the Bay of Campeche, and another along the coast of Costa Rica. Like in June, the tropical hot spots for development in November are the western Caribbean, and the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. Patterns have shifted more toward the Fall/Winter path, so usually if anything develops in these areas, they’re taken toward the east, rather than a northward or westward movement. The disturbed weather in the western Caribbean is officially Disturbance 97L, and may have enough punch to become a TD or even Tropical Storm Ida. We haven’t had to deal any named system for almost a month, and it’s been almost two full months since we’ve dealt with any hurricanes. So far only two hurricanes have developed this season. Only 11 other seasons since 1850 have seen no more than two hurricanes. The last time was 1982. If this holds, 2009 will be one of the rarest type seasons only happening about 7% of the time.
StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker
Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!
October is normally the driest month here in Acadiana. We usually see about 4 inches of rain on average. As Chris posted over the weekend, October 2009 hits the #5 position for rainiest Octobers on record here in Lafayette. #2 for all time on the New Iberia October list!
A wet October happens from time to time, but there is something a little unusual about this year’s totals. No “Atlantic” tropical systems influenced the above normal rainfall in 2009! But there was one “Pacific” hurricane that brought lots of moisture to our region. Looking back at the top 10 wettest Octobers, I found that at least half of them had a tropical system hit Louisiana, or passed south of the area. The most recent October hurricane, Lili in 2002, pushed that October to the top of the list! Hurricane Hilda in 1964, Tropical Storm Josephine in 1996, and unnamed systems in 1932 and 1949 also pushed those Octobers up into the top 10. This year, the Pacific’s Hurricane Rick hit the west coast of Mexico, and the subtropical jet stream was in place to grab that moisture, pull it across Mexico and dump it over Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Arkansas a week and a half ago. The instability from Rick was also a key player in the Tornado outbreak we had back on October 22.
Temperatures in October were pretty close to normal. Highs ran about 1.6 degrees below normal, while lows were about about 3 degrees above. Total for the month put the average October temp about 0.9 degrees above normal. We hit the 90 degree mark 6 times during the month. 92 was the hottest on October 7th, 44 was the low temp on October 18 & 19. We had 8 low temperatures that were 70 degrees or above, and one record set on October 7th where the temperature only dropped to 79 degrees!
November is usually a dry month too, averaging closer to 5 inches of rain. Temperatures run in the 70s during the early part of the month, and upper 60s by the end of the month. Lows run near 53 to start, down to 47 on average as we roll toward December. Yes, we’ve hit 90 during November, but it’s been over 70 years since we did it last. Freezing temperatures usually visit Acadiana for the first time during November. Northern parts of Acadiana have their first freeze around November 15th. The I-10 corridor by November 25th, and areas south of LA 14, usually sometime after December 1st. 21 is the lowest recorded temperature in November for Lafayette. That was back on November 16, 1916.
November, like October, puts us in jackets and shorts, while we slap mosquitoes around a campfire. Basically, expect a little bit of everything!
StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker
Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!
