Low pressure that is developing along the lower Texas coast will intensify today. The combination of an upper level low over the Rio Grande Valley and a strong subtropical jet stream over the central Gulf of Mexico will aid in the development of this surface system. This low is expected to deepen rapidly and as Rob stated in the earlier post, a type of “Gulf Nor’Easter” will bring strong winds, rough seas, and heavy rains over the Gulf of Mexico. Those in the offshore industry will need to prepare for this storm. Those of us near the coast will see higher than normal tides with coastal flooding possible. Hunters beware..coastal marshes will see the waters rising 1-2 feet above normal. Those of us farther inland shouldn’t be bothered too much except for a cold rain with breezy conditions.
So far this morning, the rains have stayed off of the Texas coast. Rains that were within 50 miles of the Cameron Parish coastline at 3am, have barely moved to the coastline as of 9am. Dry air in place over Louisiana has brought a halt to the forward progress of the rain. As the atmosphere moistens up, rain will be able to support itself easier, so expect rains to move onto the coast around noon, with inland areas getting into some light rain later this afternoon. Overnight, rains will be more likely and should last through the mid part of the day Saturday. Rainfall totals will run from about 1/2″ over northern Acadiana to about 1″ along the coast. Offshore rains could go as high as 5-7″!
Near the center of low pressure over the Gulf, winds could be over 50 knots at times. Gale Warnings are posted for tonight for the far offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories are posted for the near shore waters where winds will be in the 20-30 knot range. Those winds will push water toward the coast, so tides will be running 1-2 feet above normal with high tides running as high as 4 feet. Coastal Flood Advisories are posted.
Sunday should be very nice for land areas with sunshine and temperatures back in the upper 60s. Offshore conditions will go sunny too, but the winds and seas will be slow to improve. I would expect small craft advisories to hold into Sunday at the very least. Gale warnings might stay up for the far offshore waters for the remainder of the weekend.
With a storm this strong developing in the Gulf, what will it be like when it rounds the Carolina coast and heads toward New England??? This could be a news maker next week too!
StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker
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