Rainfall Accumulation Forecast Through Saturday
A high end weather event will likely develop for our friends to the west of Acadiana over the next few days as a slow moving frontal trough slowly approaches for the weekend. Scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight and spread northward as a warm front develops along the coast and works its way inland on Thursday. The Storm Prediction Centerhas much of the area hatched in for the threat of severe weather beginning late tonight and more than likely carrying into Friday night. The main mode of any severe weather that may develop over the next 36 hours should be rotating cells that could produce tornadoes segueing to the threat of wind damaging storms by late Friday and perhaps Friday night. This weather system will likely be remembered for the flooding rains that it may produce with areas in Eastern Texas and Northwestern Louisiana likely to receive in excess of 5-7″ of rain over a 48 hour period. Quantitative Precipitation Forecastsare calling for widespread 2-3 day rain totals in the 6 inch range which means some folks may see as much as double that in isolated spots. A Flash Flood Watch has already been posted for SW’rn Louisiana including Jeff Davis, Allen, Cameron, Calcasieu, Beauregard, Vernon and Rapides Parishes. Flood watches may be issued farther east with time through Friday. So the bottom line over the next few days expect windy and warm conditions Thursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms accompanied by a slight risk of severe weather, which will likely lead to tornado watches. Showers and storms will become more likely Friday into Friday night. While impossible to predict at this time, at least 2-4″ of rain accumulations will be the call for Acadiana with much higher totals farther west into Southeastern Texas. Our saturated grounds will only tolerate 2-3″ of rain before run-off issues arise, with flood thresholds considerably lower in Jeff Davis and Calcasieu parishes after the 5″ rain Monday. The upper trough and jet-stream guiding this system was modeled more slowly today which means that rain and storms will stay in the forecast through early Saturday. Drier conditions and considerably cooler temperatures area expected for the latter part of Saturday with temperatures dropping through the 60s and into the 50s for Saturday night trick or treaters…and there will be a wind chill so go with the warmer costume! Sunday through next Thursday looks great with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Please stay with KATC for the latest on this unfolding weather event…Rob