KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Heavy rains are anticipated again across Acadiana and with recent heavy rains, soils are saturated and river stages are still fairly high.  Rainfall totals of 1-3″ are possible across the area, with up to 4″ possible right along the coast.  Clouds will increase this morning with showers developing this afternoon.  Heavier rains will move in tonight with thunderstorms possible too.  Right now the severe weather threat is low, flooding will be the main threat with this system.

Already we have rain from Little Rock to San Antonio with heavy downpours occurring from Texarkana to Dallas.  There were severe thunderstorms over Oklahoma earlier this morning, but the watch boxes have been cancelled as of this time.  The rain chances will increase as the front moves closer to the area. 

The other piece of the puzzle will be a low pressure area developing over the Gulf of Mexico just ahead of the front.  This low will form off of the Texas coast east of Brownsville.  Some models have the low moving northeast across Acadiana while a few other models track the low toward the Florida/Alabama coastline.  I’m going with more of a track toward the New Orleans area so the heaviest rains will occur along the coast, but still significant rainfall is possible over the area tonight. 

The Vermilion River here in Lafayette is still holding just under 9 Feet this morning, flood stage is 10 feet.  Also stronger southerly winds will increase tide levels about 1 foot above normal, preventing the normal flow of the rivers and bayous into the Gulf.  Soils are still saturated from Thursdays heavy rains too.  If the rains come down heavy in a short period of time, most of the water will be run off which could add to the problem of flash flooding in low lying areas and streets.

The front will pass through and rains should end quickly Tuesday morning.  Skies will clear by the afternoon.  Another system will rapidly move toward the area with rains returning Thursday.  Right now I think the next front will be through before trick-or-treaters head out Saturday.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com