KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Hit the mark with the coverage of the rainfall yesterday. heaviest amounts were over the Lake Charles region, and along the coast.  The rain total in Lake  Charles was 1.32″, Lafayette hit 0.85″, New Iberia 0.97″, Alexandria 0.73″, Baton Rouge 0.33″, and New Orleans 0.56″.  Radar estimates showed a few two inch totals in areas of Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary Parishes.

The front has made some progress overnight, and is currently moving through the area and will stall over in the New Orleans area.  We will continue to see some higher rain chances today, but the difference today will be less lightning and thunder.  Today will be more of an “over running” precipitation forecast.  Instead of the storms firing up from the more violent lift caused by daytime heating and the front moving closer, today the moisture flow will gradually lift over the cooler air that is present behind the front and at the bottom of the atmosphere.  Since the lift is slower and not as robust, we get clouds and more of a general rain.  Ahead of the front, the air mass is still pretty unstable, so most of the thunder and lightning will occur offshore since the front will be southeast of us.  I wish I could say we were going to have a cold rain.  Even where temps cooled a bit over southeast Texas, we’re only talking upper 60s.  The air behind the front is moderating quickly.

Now there is a secondary front that is being generated more by the upper level low that is cut off over the mid part of the country.  That will continue eastward and should meet up with the current front that is passing by today.  They’ll merge into one and still sit still over southeast Louisiana.  So at least for now, the pattern should remain somewhat rainy today, and showery tomorrow.  By Friday the front will start to lift northward and dissipate, so some pop up rains and storms will kick off due to daytime heating, but the coverage shouldn’t be as widespread as yesterday.  The system becomes weaker by Saturday and Sunday, so rain coverage should lessen each day.

A more significant front looks to dive southward by the mid part of next week.  It’s not really looking too cool, but the air might be considerably drier.  Lower humidity always makes us happy here in Acadiana.  We’ll take what we can get at this point.

By the way, here’s my egg standing on end at the exact beginning of the fall season.  Can you believe we were out of salt???  I improvised and used a little sugar instead.  It worked okay for a few moments.  The egg was cold, and when condensation formed on the outside of the egg, it fused together the few grains of sugar holding it.  Within a few minutes the sugar had dissolved and the egg fell over.  That’s what I get for doing that trick on a humid, rainy afternoon!  By the way, the kids weren’t too impressed.  Apparently there is a magician on FreeZone in the On Demand menu from Cox Cable.  He teaches kids how magic tricks are done, and the egg balancing trick is one of them.  BUSTED!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com

A stalling frontal boundary will continue to be the focus of clouds, showers and thunderstorms Wednesday with locally heavy downpours possible again.  Rainfall totals Tuesday across Acadiana were in the .50-1.50″ with isolated hot spots of more than 3″ showing up across portions of Vermilion and coastal Iberia parishes.  There were no reports of severe weather nor flooding, but some spots could have localized run-off porblems and/or street flooding where storms become most prevalent tomorrow.  The nearly stationary front will actually begin to retrograde back to the north and west beginning tomorrow night and with it will go the highest rain chances.  Do expect a good scattering of showers and storms Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies helping to keep our temperatures no higher than the low-mid 80s.  As the front retreats Thursday, slightly more stable air will move in from the east allowing for more intervals of sun but we will still be mired in a rather tropical atmosphere so scattered daytime heating induced showers and storms will be possible Thursday Friday and into the weekend.  In addition, our flow aloftwill be southwesterly later this week into the weekend and that’s why we will go with rain chances a little bit higher than climatology which is in the 30% range at least through Saturday.  As Dave Baker alluded to in the last blog entry, the longer range models do show drier more-fall like weather by mid-late next week and we’ll continue to hope for that…but the busy upper level low business we’ve seen for a good part of this summer thanks to El Nino lowers our forecast confidence beyond a few days.  At least this El Nino pattern has truly made an impact on this hurricane season…but watch out for more heavy rain events and more frequent and robust severe weather events this winter.  El Nino could translate to a pay now or pay later scenario…but I’d rather take my chances this winter rather than having another Gustav/Ike or Katrina/Rita season!  Rob

Unsettled weather will continue through the mid week with our cold front hitting the brakes west of the area.  Overnight the storms along the front were strong to severe over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, but those storms weakened as they moved southeast.  This morning we were left with more of a widespread light rain over southeast Texas, and some widely scattered storms over Acadiana.

As we’ve progressed through the morning and are now headed toward the afternoon, the showers and storms are developing as the heating of the day kicks in.  The outflow boundary left from the storms last night has moved into western Louisiana, while the front is still over Texas.  So far most of the rains have been along a line from Alexandria to Lake Charles, and new storms are developing over Vermilion Bay.  Most of the Acadiana area will experience some rain today, with heavier amounts concentrated over Beauregard, Allen, Evangeline, Jeff Davis, Cameron, and Calcasieu Parishes.  I think an average of 1/2″ of rain over most of Acadiana today, with up to an inch over the western areas mentioned above. 

Thanks to an upper level low that will get cut off from the main flow as it moves out of the Rockies into the plains, progress of the front will be very slow.  Right now it looks like the front will move through the area by late Friday, but by then the air mass behind the front will modify, and become similar to the air mass ahead of the front.  So, rains will become more scattered by the weekend, and the temperatures will remain about the same.  It’s too bad, because the air mass behind the front right now is producing temperatures in the 40s over the Texas Panhandle, and Freeze Watches are up in New Mexico right up to the Texas State line!  Temperatures in cities as close as Dallas and Austin probably won’t get out of the mid 70s for highs today.

Looking ahead for cold fronts.  Right now it looks like a front might swing close to the area a little over a week from now, but the bulk of the cool air will stay east of us.  Another indicated on the extended range models might get in here by the first weekend in October.  So glad tropical weather is quiet so we can concentrate on “Fall Front Watch”!  Don’t forget, Happy Fall @ 4:18pm!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com

Increasing rain chances and cloud cover are in the forecast over the next several days as a frontal boundary approaches but stalls just north and west of Acadiana.  This front will be the focal point for showers and storms this week with plenty of storms and the threat of heavy rains staying to our north and west for now.  This surface front will stall because the upper low that is pushing it toward us will become cut-off from the jet-stream and may actually retrograde back to the north and west.  So calling our weather unsettled for the rest of the week would be a fairly accurate statement.  The bottom line is that there will be a good chance of showers and storms for our Tuesday with lingering cloud cover and a pretty good chance of showers and storms, especially across western and northern sections of Acadiana for Wednesday.  Even though fall officially kicks in Tuesday afternoon at 4:19pm we’ll continue to experience late summer conditions with partly to mostly cloudy, warm and humid conditions accompanied by the threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the week into the first part of the weekend.  Drier more stable air should move in by the latter part of the weekend, quite possibly ushering slightly cooler conditions for early next week.  Unfortunately for us, fall-like conditions will have to wait.  By the way, welcome to the “new” katc.com!  Hopefully you’ll enjoy the more streamlined and timely content.  As always please let us know what you think…your feedback is always welcomed.  Rob

Unfortunately the cold front we were talking about before the weekend isn’t expected to roll through.  I think we might see it get into central Louisiana, then stall, then wash out over the course of the week.  Did you notice that this past weekend seemed more like summer time?  More sunshine, high humidity, and less of a breeze.  Temperatures were running in the low 90s during the day, and the heat index at times was touching the 100 degree mark.  Whew, yard work was not fun this weekend, especially after last weekend’s rain, and my procrastination!  Hey, did you see the stars sweating it out at the Emmy’s with the temperature hitting 80 degrees.  Can we get a collective Louisiana…”wahhhh!”

Moisture will stick around this week, expect a few showers today, but more coverage of rain is expected Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.  By the weekend, still some scattered showers, but the front will have washed out by then, and warm, humid weather is expected with isolated showers and storms.

We’re heading into the fall season tomorrow afternoon, and temperatures will stay more like summer.  But by Louisiana’s fall standards, the temperatures we’re expecting this week won’t be that unusual.  Normal high for today is 87, normal low is 68.  But the days will shorten, and the normals will be dropping much faster.  One month from now, our normal highs will be in the upper 70s, with average lows back in the mid 50s.  I know, it’s hard to imagine that kind of weather right now!  But looking ahead, the long range forecasts show about equal chances that the fall season temperatures will be pretty normal.  With El Nino present, the winter might be a bit below normal for temps, and a bit above normal for precip.  There’s a ton of information to read, and a number of different views of what’s going to happen in the long range going through fall and winter.  Most of you (including me) are just ready to open the windows and turn off the air conditioner for a while.  A week and a half down the road looks more promising.

Tropics are nice and quiet…just the way we like it!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com

We’re still expecting warmer and more humid conditions this weekend as our meandering low is beginning to take its business farther to the north and east.  Some healthy storms developed toward Baton Rouge earlier this afternoon producing a widely observed funnel cloud that never touched the ground.  More stable air and drier conditions aloft will allow for more intervals of sunshine tomorrow after mostly cloudy periods.  Highs tomorrow will push back into the upper 80s.  There will still be the risk of an isolated shower during the afternoon hours with slightly better chances toward Baton Rouge and for tailgaiting.  It does appear that the weather should be good though for the big game tomorrow evening.  Sunday and Monday will feel like summer for the last two “official” days of summer with highs near 90 and the risk of scattered afternoon storms.  On Tuesday a stalling frontal boundary will approach bringing very little in the way of cooling but the risk of substantial shower and thunderstorm activity.  It looks quite unsettled and rather wet from mid-week to at least the first part of next weekend.  I do see a very good looking cool front in the long-range models in about the 9-10 day range so we’ll start wish-casting for that this weekend!  Finall a big Thanks to Dave for educating all of us on that egg thing on the equinox in the previous blog entry…it will save us all some emails in the future!  Have a good weekend!  Rob

More warm humid days are ahead for the region as we roll through the last weekend of the summer season.  Temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 80s with fairly high humidity’s.  Although everyone is getting anxious for the first real cool blast of fall, average highs this time of year are still around 88 degrees.  There will be a few cooling showers today, but less rain is expected over the weekend as the system that has been sitting still over north Louisiana will finally weaken and move away.  Fortunately we’ve seen a pretty nice breeze kick in just about each afternoon this week, and those fresh breezes have lasted into the early evening hours too. 

I’m still watching some cool air pushing southward for the middle part of next week.  Still wondering if it will actually get here.  I’ve dropped the temps again on the 8 day (based on wishful thinking again) for Wednesday and Thursday.  There is more evidence of that “cut off” low again, so even though I’m still hopeful, the confidence in this front is waning. 

There is a little bit of tropical weather to talk about this morning.  Two areas that we’re watching.  A tropical disturbance way out in the Atlantic is showing signs of better organization.  Upper level conditions are marginally favorable, but development will be somewhat slow.  Also, the remnants of Hurricane Fred (way back from last week) have moved toward the western Atlantic north of Puerto Rico.  The NHC officially classifies this as a “disturbance” again.  The forecast brings it westward toward Florida believe it or not.  Most models I’ve seen today then turn in northwestward eventually bringing more rain to Georgia and Alabama.  A Gulf scenario seems unlikely right now, but hey, as far as I’m concerned, all bets are off for anything this hurricane season!

Hey. Do you want to freak out your kids next week??  Fall officially begins with the Autumnal Equinox that is scheduled for 4:18pm Tuesday.  You may have heard about the “balancing egg” trick.  The legend says that when the equinox is occurring you can balance an egg on its small end for a short period of time because of the balance in gravity around the Earth.  Well, if an egg can balance, then everything else should too right?  Can you imagine a drunk passing a DWI test because his balance was perfect at 4:18pm?  This is simply not true.  Mainly because the equinox has nothing to do with gravitational pull.  As the Earth travels around the sun over the course of a year and because the Earth’s axis is tilted 23.5 degrees, different parts of the earth face the sun more directly than others over the course of time.  On our first day of winter, the southern hemisphere is facing the sun more directly.  Up here in the northern hemisphere, we see the sun at a lower angle, and the time the sun is above the horizon is shorter…giving us longer nights.  The opposite is true on our first day of summer.  We see these transitions throughout the year.  I’m sure you’ve already noticed the days getting shorter.  They’ve been doing that since June 21st.  When we get to the equinox during late March and September, we’ve reached the half way point.  The equator is pointed directly toward the sun, so we basically see equal amounts of day and night all over the earth.  Hence the word “equinox”! 

So back to the egg thing and freaking out your kids.  Even though you can balance the egg, you can do it any day at any time.  If you’re like me and don’t like the frustration failing 40 million times, there is an easy way to trick the egg, and your kids.  When they are out of the room, (better yet, have it ready when they get home from school!) pour a small pile of salt on a table.  It doesn’t have to be a big pile, maybe as round as a nickel or a quarter.  Take the egg and set it in the pile of salt with the small end of the egg down.  Once you have it sitting in the salt, gently blow the salt away until the egg is just standing there by itself.  What the kids won’t see are the few grains of salt that are still under the egg holding it in balance.  They’ll be amazed, and you can tell them it can only be done for a few moments, twice a year.  Have fun!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com

The low pressure system that has meandered across the region for the last week continues to slowly weaken while drifting slowly to the east. Once again most of the wet weather has been confined to the northern part of our state. This should put Acadiana in the best position for rain chances Friday. But with that being said, computer model data over the last several days has been quite high on the clouds and rain chances but the atmosphere has not cooperated with more sun and more stable conditions verifying over the last several days. The bottom line is that we’ll continue with a forecasted rain chance near 30-40% for Friday (models have been in the 60% range) and 40% may again be generous. Warmer and more stable conditions should move in for the weekend but we cannot rule out an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Highs this weekend will range in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the last official summer weekend. The front that we have been talking about for next week now looks to stall before reaching us. Even if the front gets close the upper pattern will not support much in the way of cooler air to move in and is now indicating increasing rain chances for mid-next week. More on the first few days of fall tomorrow. Rob

The stubborn low is making its loop around east Texas and will enter Louisiana again later today.  Moisture is still in place, so with the low making things more unstable, the rain chances today will be a bit higher than yesterday.  That low will slowly work across the state tonight, and move eastward while weakening on Friday.  By Saturday it should weaken enough to drop rain chances back into the 20% range with partly cloudy skies returning for the weekend.  Temperatures will remain mild, and humidity levels high.

Today

Tomorrow

Saturday

 Rainfall totals over the next two days should be in the 1/2″ range.  Heavier amounts of rain are expected again over the ArkLaTex, and over the Florida panhandle.  Right now it doesn’t look like severe weather will be a threat, nor will any flooding in the local area.

Farther down the road we’re still watching models flip/flop over a cold front.  Earlier in the week we were seeing something heading our way by the middle part of next week.  Yesterday the models were more robust when it came to the front going through sometime on Wednesday.  This morning the models have backed away somewhat.  I still have an hint of cooler and drier air coming in late next week, based on wishful thinking. 

But with this current pattern in place, I’m also weary that when this system moves toward us, another low will get cut off and drag through the ArkLaTex.  If this scenario pans out, we might keep the humidity, and another round of unsettled weather might be bunking up with us for an extended stay again.  If this turns out to be the case, I certainly hope the current resident low gets out before the next one joins us.

Tropical weather is still quiet, the remnants of Fred are still weakening over the mid-Atlantic.  A couple of tropical waves over the eastern Atlantic aren’t showing any signs of organization.  The Caribbean is clear.  Scattered storms over the Gulf associated with the low over the ArkLaTex will drift toward the Florida panhandle this weekend, no development is expected there either.  Extended models show quiet tropical weather for the rest of the month!!!  Great news!!!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!

weather@katctv.com

The ‘stacked” low,  that’s low pressure at the surface and low pressure aloft that sits almost directly over the surface low, continues to drift over northern Louisiana.  This feature will keep Acadiana’s weather a little unsettled over the next several days with a cloud and sun mix again Wednesday accompanied by the chance of scattered showers.  The low is expected to drift westward through tomorrow, then southward Thursday putting us closer to the low and therefore increasing the rain chances.  This system should begin to drift eastward Friday and weaken with more stable air trying to move in for the weekend.  Today’s models are not as dry and temperate for the weekend so this evening’s forecast package does keep very slight rain chances and slightly higher temperatures for Saturday and Sunday.  In the near term, daytime highs will continue in the mid-80s while overnight lows could lower closer to 70 by the end of the week.  A vigorous cool front appears to be taking shape in the long range projections for early next week with more than likely a fresh shot of cooler air, especially at night, just in time for the Autumnal Equinox…fall which kicks in officially next Tuesday at 4:19pm.  Rob