KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Yeah, yesterday’s forecast was a bit of a bust.  I was expecting the clouds to clear and sunshine was supposed to be abundant for the afternoon.  Instead we had a mix of sun and clouds for the northern parts of Acadiana, and considerable cloudiness over areas south of I-10.  Unfortunately there were also showers that developed over coastal sections of  Cameron and Vermilion parishes.  This was caused by an upper level disturbance that was riding along the front and moved eastward over the coastal sections.  That piece of energy is now well to the east of the area, and we’ve been left with clear skies today.  Therefore sunshine should prevail today, and temperatures will remain comfortable.

The next system is already taking shape out to the west, and the weather pattern will be moving along over the next week or so.  We’ve kind of gotten used to systems getting stuck, but with the advance of the fall season, we should start to see the jet stream getting more progressive, so the fronts will be moving faster and farther as we head toward winter.  So enjoy today, because the transition day will be Thursday.  Expect a decent southerly breeze, more humidity, and a slight chance for a shower late in the day.  Friday as the next front barrels through, we’ll see thunderstorms developing early in the day.  There might be some severe weather well to the north of the area, but areas of brief heavy rain will move through.  The front will be moving along pretty quickly, so don’t expect the rain to last long.  By Friday evening we should clear out, Saturday is looking great.  The pattern will continue to stay progressive though, so a quick return flow is setting up for Sunday, and we might see some showers developing again late in the weekend. 

Next week things slow down again, so warm and humid weather is forecast Monday through Wednesday.  Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s, and there will be chances for afternoon showers each day.  Another front might move in by the end of the week, so the Festival et Creoles forecast might be more fall like.

Fortunately, tropical weather has been very quiet for the month of September.  Except for a tropical depression that fired up for a short time last weekend, we only saw two named systems during the month of September.  Tropical Storm Erika born September 1st, and Major Hurricane Fred over the eastern Atlantic fired up on September 7th lasting through the 12th.  Normally we see four named storms over the Atlantic Basin during the month of September, two of those become hurricanes, with one or two becoming major.  So we ran about 50% of normal this year. 

So far this year just the extreme northeastern Caribbean has been clipped by two named systems, Ana weakened to a depression before moving in, and Erika was briefly a tropical storm near the Virgin Islands.  The Gulf has only produced one short lived tropical storm, Claudette.  It made landfall over the Florida panhandle early August 17th with 50mph winds.  The rest of the activity was over the Atlantic.  The only hurricane making landfall was Bill.  Grazing Nova Scotia, then crossing over the extreme southeastern tip of Newfoundland.

During October, Cape Verde Season shuts down.  Tropical development usually happens over the Western Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico.  The most likely areas to be hit in October are Cuba, the Yucatan, and Florida. 

Hurricane Lili October 2002

We’ve seen October hurricanes in Acadiana, Lili being the most recent back in 2002.  As far as I could find, Louisiana has been hit with8 hurricanes and 5 tropical storms in October since 1860.  That comes out to about an 8% chance of a named storm hitting during that month.  After October 15th, that chance drops to less than 1%.  That’s during normal years, not El Nino years.  Hilda in 1964 was the strongest at landfall, Lili was the strongest overall but weakened before hitting land.  Hurricane Juan is the latest on record, striking Morgan City on October 29, 1985.  No hurricanes, tropical storms, or depressions have hit Louisiana in November.  Since this is an El Nino year, I figure in about two weeks, we’ll be done with hurricane season in Louisiana.  We’re probably done already.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

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