KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

We’ve been soaked with rain every day this week. Yesterday Abbeville recorded over three inches of rain which caused minor flooding. Today the heaviest rain was in St. Mary parish and a flash flood warning was posted after two inches of rain fell. We will finally get a break from the torrential downpours and high humidity after a front passes Saturday morning. It is pretty unusual for a front to make it this far south in August but this one will make it. For the rest of the weekend into the beginning of next week, high pressure to our north will push in drier air and northerly winds. High temperatures will be near normal reaching into the low 90s. The overnight lows will be below normal dipping to 67 degrees Sunday night.  The sunny skies stay with us through Wednesday when the return flow kicks in and brings more moisture from the Gulf. Rain chances Wednesday into next weekend will run at about 40%.

Hurricane Bill continues to weaken as it nears Bermuda. The storm is going through an eye wall replacement cycle which happens when the eye collapses and a new circle in the center forms. Hurricanes always weaken during this transition but can strengthen once the new eye develops. Bill is quickly headed for some cooler water so the chance of significant growth is not likely. High swells will impact the east coast but Bill is not expected to directly affect any land.

There is a new tropical wave the National Hurricane Center is watching for possible development. Right now it is SW of the Cape Verde Islands off of the African coast. So we’ll be watching this low to see if it develops over the next few days.

Enjoy your weekend!

Pictures say 1,000 words and we had a lot of weather going on across Acadiana. These are all photos submitted by viewers. Thanks for the pics.

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana-Weekday Mornings @ 5am!

A generous amount of moisture is sticking around for today and Friday so showers and thunderstorms will be developing again late this morning and lingering into the late afternoon hours.  I’m keeping the chance for rain at 60% today and Friday, with lower rain chances Saturday morning prior to a cold front passing through.  Yesterday the Lafayette Regional Airport only recorded 0.05″ of rain and that didn’t come in until the early evening.  Other parts of Acadiana saw heavier amounts of rain up to 2 inches, especially over Allen, Acadia, Evangeline, and St. Landry parishes.  That cold front should get in here early Saturday morning.  Dry air will filter in.  Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday look great with mostly sunny skies.  Temperatures will still run near 90 during the day, but with lower humidity, it won’t feel too bad.  Dry air cools off easy, so overnight lows might drop into the upper 60s for the first time since early June!

Anything that was left over from Ana has pretty much disappeared this morning.  We did see some soaking rains yesterday over south Florida.  Those storms dissipated as they moved westward over the Gulf, and as of this morning even most of the cloud cover has vanished.  Therefore, I believe we’ve finally nailed the coffin shut on Ana.

Hurricane Bill has weakened just a bit this morning.  Yesterday Bill maintained it’s Category 4 strength, but overnight there has been a bit of a collapse of the western side.  Dry air is trying sneak in, but it’s having a hard time.  Bill is strong enough that it is dominating the local environment, so inhibiting factors that would tear on a weaker storm doesn’t have much of a chance against him.  The dry air is retreating to the southwest, and as Bill turns away to the northwest, it will run over warmer waters.  Lower wind shear is forecast for the next two days, so Bill could easily strengthen to Category 4 once again.  The track still has Bill squeezing between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast.  The latest models do show more of a westerly track, so New England is now being clipped by the forecast cone.  All of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are in the path.  By the time the storm gets in that area it will be weaker, and moving must faster.  That’s good news and bad news.  Good news is if Bill goes over the Canadian Provinces it will get in and out rather quickly…bad news, it’s still expected to be a hurricane and with a faster forward speed preparation time is cut short!  Other than Bill, most models don’t show any other development for about 5 days, so hopefully after an active week, we can take a break for a few days!

Rain popped up all across the radar today with some funnel clouds reported in Acadia and Cameron parishes. The weather stays the same Thursday and Friday with rain likely. Some much welcomed changes are on the way. A strong trough looks like it will push some dry air across the area and rain chances will be cut off. After Saturday morning sunny skies dominate the forecast into next week. We’ll even get some cooler temperatures at night with lows around 70 degrees. That’s a few degrees below normal so it will feel very comfortable.

So hopefully, you’ll get some rain in the next few days before it all dries up!

StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker

Good Morning Acadiana Weekday Mornings @ 5am

Hurricane Bill reached Major Hurricane status yesterday, and continues to hold its own today jumping to Category 4.  Winds are sustained at 135 mph, and some strengthening is forecast 0ver the next day or so.  Bill is running along at a pretty good clip to the WNW at 18mph.  The Bermuda High, a normal feature over the Atlantic is in place and is the main steering current for Bill.  A large trough that will push off the North American continent later this week is the piece of the puzzle that should curve Bill away from the U.S. East Coast.  Even though the official forecast from the NHC shows a complete miss, rough seas with large swells and rip currents will pummel the coast starting in northern Florida Friday, and up the coast Saturday and Sunday.  Still everyone along the east coast should watch Bill closely, especially from the Carolina coast northward.  Since Bill is still moving along to the WNW at a high speed, the timing of the trough might not turn it quick enough.  Every moment that Bill moves farther west will put more and more of the east coast in the cone.  Right now, just Cape Cod, and the Maritime Provinces of Canada are threatened in the five day forecast.  By that time, Bill is expected to be weaker, but once it’s grabbed by the trough an increase in forward speed is expected.  Many tropical systems as they move north of 35 degrees latitude scream along at 20, 30, or even 40 mph forward speed!

Feeling a bit more relaxed about the remnants of Ana this morning.  The upper level low that was running just west of the disorganized wave took its toll on Ana’s remains.  This morning there are a couple pockets of storms over the southern tip of Florida and that will roll westward into the Gulf later today.  The upper level low overpowered it yesterday, but is drifting off to the southwest toward the Yucatan.  As it gets further away, the shear appears to be lessening over south Florida.  I’ve seen one model that develops a weak low over the central Gulf of Mexico in about two days, with a closed circulation along the Louisiana coastline by Day 4.    A front will be heading across the state by that time, so anything that might develop shouldn’t be strong, and would move in and out quickly.  Feeling more confident that nothing will re-develop, but still not ready to bury Ana yet.  Hopefully tomorrow.

Tropical rains and storms will continue this afternoon.  Heavy downpours will be around too.  We could see some funnel clouds or waterspouts in the coastal areas again today.  Rains will persist through the rest of the week.  The cold front approaching the area later this weekend should clear everything out by Sunday.  Not expecting the first cold blast, but lower humidities certainly gives most of us an excited chill right?  Who knows, could we be talking about a 68 or 69 degree low next week?  We haven’t been below 70 since June 7th!  We’ll have to get closer to 60 for any records to fall.  I’ll wishcast on that any day in August!  –Baker

Ok it may not be as exciting for many of you but today Baron Radar Services upgraded Power Doppler 3000′s processor to an RVP9 which is the most powerful radar processor available anywhere!  In fact, we are the first television station in the country to have this!  The RVP9 possesses about 10 times the computing power of our most recent processor which gives us much more detail when it comes to precipitation reflectivity and elocity data.  You may also notice Power Doppler 3000 at katc.com shows 16 times the previous resolution so hopefully this hardware upgrade will enable us to see severe weather more clearly and in a more timely manner…hopefully we won’t have to test this out with severe storms any time soon, but we do expect active tropical thunderstorms to stay with us for Wednesday and more than likely for Thursday and Friday as well.  As the weekend approaches another vigorus upper trough will try to push a weak cool front across the area Saturday which hopefully will usher in drier more stable and perhaps more comfortable weather by Sunday.  This upper trough will ultimately guide Hurrcane Bill away from the US…but coastalNew England and the Canadian Maritimes will be watching this storm very closely.  And as I mentioned yesterday, Bermuda will likely feel some if not most effects of this storm in about 4 days.  Meanwhile, we are still watching the remnants of Ana that are tied to an upper level low near Cuba.  This disturbance is heading for the southeastern Gulf.  There is still a slight possibility of redevelopment…spoke with Dave about this system this morning…see the previous blog entry by Dave.

I hope to be taking a few days off for the rest of the week so I have a vested interest in the Caribbean wave and that it stays just that!  Rob

Over the weekend while Ana was bumping along and Bill was growing into the hurricane it is today, we were still keeping a watchful eye on the tropical wave moving across The Bahamas and Florida.  Rob and I traded a few emails over the weekend about this wave, and the “high octane” water it was heading toward in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Kari was keeping us updated via TV also keeping a watchful eye.  Saturday evening the Tampa radar was showing images of development, but surface observations and buoys were still suggesting otherwise.  But within 12 hours we had a tropical storm bearing down on the Florida panhandle. 

It seemed too much attention was being paid to Ana and Bill.  While the NHC office in Miami was looking east,  Claudette was forming right behind them to the west.  Ana has now been downgraded to a tropical wave, but once again it seems all the focus is on Bill.  National media has also dropped coverage of the remnants of Ana.  I would assume this is because the current forecast track curves Bill closer to the East Coast, and because it’s an impressive looking hurricane!  Looks do count in TV I guess.  Could Ana be a sleeping giant?  And if so when and where will she wake up, and more importantly…where will she go and how strong can she get?  We wouldn’t want to see this “Claudette” thing happen twice in the same week, would we?

Going out on a limb here, so let me tell you why I think we should pay attention to this disorganized mess that we call “what’s left of Ana” in addition to the progress of Hurricane Bill. 

First…five days ago a tropical wave with no history moved through this same area, at about the same speed, with nearly the same surrounding hostilities, and eventually became a tropical storm.

Second, this wave at one time was Tropical Storm Ana, so it already had a history.  This history has been mostly doing exactly the opposite of that computer models were forecasting!

Third, since  Sunday, even when Ana was still classified as a Tropical Storm, it was very difficult to tell which part of the system was actually the center of circulation.  Developing or weakening systems have been known to re-form a new center of circulation many miles from the original, throwing off forecasters, computer models, and storm tracks.

Fourth, the area this Ana wave is moving into has the warmest waters of the entire Atlantic Basin, the deepest 80 degree water anywhere, and the most tropical cyclone heat potential available.  Some of this “high octane” ocean fuel is even more rich than when Katrina, Rita, and Wilma passed over in 2005 initiating rapid development of these storms!

So check it out.  Here is this morning’s first visible satellite imagery of the Caribbean.  I would have used the close up “floater” satellite, but the NHC discontinued close-up coverage of Ana since the advisories have ceased.  Notice the tangled mess of clouds that stretch from Haiti, to the Bahamas, to Cuba.  Another area of storms just south of Cuba heading toward Jamaica.  All of this is heading WNW at about 20mph, which is pretty fast.  Stare at the image for a few seconds, and take it in.  Yeah, I know it’s hard to focus while the ominous Bill is to the right, but try to memorize what the leftovers of Ana look like.  Okay, got it?  Now watch this video.

Kinda scary huh?  Now there are some differences…first, what became Katrina is farther north than where the last fix of “Ana” was.  Also, this “Future Katrina” wave was only moving about 8-10 mph to the WNW, so a bit slower.  But this TD 12 was actually formed from the combination of the remnants of TD 10 and another tropical wave.  So it already had an unorganized history.  The similarities show a disorganized mess, very warm sea surface temperatures, and even a weak upper level low to its west.  About two days after that video, Hurricane Katrina hit South Florida and the monster Katrina was in our view finder a day after that!

Hopefully what’s bugging me is just me.  I’m definitely not a “wishcaster” as some folks think us weather people are.  I just don’t want to see something come out of nothing while everyone is looking the other way.  –Baker

Lots of tropical moisture has enveloped Acadiana allowing for widespread coverage of tropical showers and storms this afternoon.  Activity will decrease overnight but will likely fire back up again tomorrow with the daytime heating.  This deep plume of tropical moisture is in part due the upper trough that brought Claudette into the Florida Panhandle.  Interestingly enough most of the deepest tropical moisture has been left behind the remnant low of Claudette that’s just to the southwest of Birmingham Alabama at press time.  The water vapor imagery clearly depicts our deep tropical moisture plus the hots spots associated with the remanants of TD Ana and Hurricane Bill.  So expect a healthy chance of tropical showers and storms over the next few days with locally heavy tropical downpours and perhaps a few midday tropical funnel clouds.  In the tropics, Ana was downgraded from a depression this afternoon but will be tracked through the Caribbean.  The remants of this system will get into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Wednesday with the slim possibility of redevelopment when the system gets back out in the open Gulf…just remember what Claudette looked like 5 days ago (just a tropical wave)! Things look to get interesting later in the week as another upper trough advances from the northwest which will keep rain chances with us through Friday and which could also make for some interesting interactions with whatever is leftover from Ana in the Gulf.  We could see drier more stable air then moving in for the weekend with the tropical conduit pushing into the eastern Gulf and the SE US.  As for Hurricane Bill, all indicators bring this system to major hurricane status over the next couple of days but the same trough that is arriving here for the weekend may ultimately steer Bill to the north in the open Atlantic.  The East Coast will still watch this one for several days while the island of Bermuda will likely watch Bill with the most interest.  Rob

After an uneventful June, July, and first half of August..the tropics explode with activity.  Three names come up in a little over a day.  Saturday morning TD#2 got the name Ana.  Saturday afternoon TD #3 became Bill.  By Sunday TD #4 became Claudette.  Claudette was the immediate threat to the U.S., forming from a tropical wave that moved over Florida.  A closed low formed just west of Tampa and quickly we went from tropical wave to tropical storm status.  Residents along the Florida panhandle had only about 36 hours to prepare for a land falling tropical storm.  Just after midnight today, Claudette made landfall near Ft. Walton Beach with 50mph winds and heavy rains.  Now Tropical Depression Claudette,  she should rain herself out over lower Alabama and much of Mississippi.  Even with a tropical storm hitting land less than 300 miles away, Acadiana barely saw a breeze overnight!

Ana was a tropical storm for most of the weekend, but earlier today it weakend to a tropical depression.  Ana has been a real challenge over the past few days, doing just the opposite of what we think she wants to do.  When the models indicate strengthening, she dies.  When the models suggest weakening, she fires back up.  Right now the official forecast drags Ana just south of Puerto Rico, then over the mountainous terrain of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.  Land always weakens a tropical system.  Therefore I’m in agreement with the NHC for the next three day forecast.  After that, I can’t really rule out anything associated with Ana.  The track (NHC and most models) runs it south of Florida into the extreme heat of the southern Gulf of Mexico.  But then most of the models indicate that there is no Ana at all by Day 4.  Even a remnant low would have a chance in these extremely warm waters. 

Just remember, Hurricane Katrina was almost unidentifiable between Haiti and the Bahamas on the morning of August 23, 2005.  By that afternoon it was TD#12, and less than 48 hours later it struck south Florida as a Category 1 hurricane after traveling only about 400 miles.  After leaving the southwest coast of Florida, Katrina hit the warm waters of the Gulf, going from a Tropical Storm to a Category 3 hurricane in just 24 hours, and making Category 5 status a day later!  So over the course of 6 days we went from virtually “Nothing” to the massive Katrina disaster we hold in our memory!  That’s just a little more than the time frame that the NHC has for Ana.

Bill became our first hurricane of the 2009 season.  Officially reaching that 74mph threshold at 5am Monday morning.  Bill has strengthened even more this morning, now up to 90mph.  Although the official track keeps Bill well offshore, the intensity models bring Bill to Category 3 by tomorrow or Wednesday.  Don’t ever stop watching a Category 3!  With the way the models have flip-flopped with Bill’s track over the past 5 days, it’s still a player when it comes to the United States.  Especially the East Coast!  -Baker

Claudette quickly formed this morning near the Florida panhandle and dumped heavy rain across a good part of the state. Wind speeds have increased to 50 mph giving residents and vacationers in the area not a lot of time to prepare. As it moves northward it will weaken but bring rain to the southeast.

Ana is shrinking in size and intensity. It’s now a depression as it races quickly westward at 23 mph. The storm is encountering dry air and the fast forward movement is working against it.  In the path there is also the Leeward Island, Hispanola, and Cuba which will keep it from developing. If it holds together, Ana is expected to emerge in the Gulf  on about Friday and we’ll have to see what it does then.

Bill is strengthening in the Atlantic behind Ana. Computer models are still turning the storm more northward but developing it as a major hurricane.

At this point the best thing to do is just make sure you have a disaster plan and check your supply kit. You may not need it this week but it’s best to have it ready just in case.  FYI the next name on the list is Danny, then Erika.

Enjoy your week!