Another beautiful morning in Acadiana as temperatures dropped into the 6os again for the third night in a row. Skies are remaining clear, and with abundant sunshine today, temperatures should be able to reach the 90 degree mark. Humidity levels are still pretty low for today. Wednesday and Thursday we’ll feel the increase in moisture, making it feel more like late August, and by Friday we might even be able to see a few showers or storms by the afternoon. Over the weekend another front will work southward and slowly creep across Louisiana Sunday. Another dip in the jet stream should give the front a shove, pushing it offshore by Monday. The early part of next week looks to be dry once again, and maybe a few early mornings with lows in the 60s. I checked some of the extended models and it looks like we might see a couple more fronts going through or coming close over the next two weeks. An early fall??? I certainly hope so! Those troughs help to keep any Atlantic tropical weather over the water!
Speaking of the Atlantic, two areas of disturbed weather to talk about this morning. The wave near the Virgin Islands was officially designated as “92L” yesterday. Another wave “93L” was bringing rain to Central America. 93L is moving inland over Nicaragua and Costa Rica this morning and will continue drifting westward across land. I think it has a better chance for development when it reaches the Pacific Ocean.
92L now has a better than 50% chance for development. We talked a little about this wave yesterday as it was interacting with an upper level low (ULL) pressure area just west of the disturbance. That ULL is still there and taking it’s toll for now. Wind shear values there are over 20 knots, but is forecast to weaken tomorrow. Also a surface circulation appears to be developing farther away from the ULL, therefore over the next 24 hours we might see development here. Air Force Reconnaissance are scheduled to fly out there this afternoon to investigate. Of course if they find something it will either be Tropical Depression #5 or Tropical Storm Danny. The trough that steered Bill away from the U.S. is still there and most models steer this disturbance in the same direction. A couple of models push it close to the Carolina coastline, but right now it’s too early to tell since the models are trying to forecast something that essentially isn’t there yet.
If Danny develops, it will be my 4th Danny since I’ve been in the weather biz. Danny in 2003 was a Category 1 hurricane spinning aimlessly in the Atlantic. 1997′s Danny was my first “hands on” hurricane experience. It was a minimal Category 1 hurricane at landfall with winds of 80mph. I was on location on the Alabama/Florida state line near Killian, Alabama when then eye went over. It was the middle of the night the sky cleared out briefly to display the nearly full moon. 1991s Danny drifted across the Atlantic only making Tropical Storm Status. The first Danny was a Category 1 hurricane that struck the Louisiana coastline on the Vermilion/Cameron Parish line during the early morning hours of August 15, 1985! I missed that one, I was still in high school. Hey Rob?? How about you old timer? Danny IV or Danny V?
“Danny” is one of those survivors on the lists of hurricane names. It’s been there since Hurricane David was retired in 1979. David was a “Cape Verde” type of storm that intensified over the northern Caribbean sea and reached Category 5 strength. It slammed onto the southern coast of the Dominican Republic near the capitol of Santo Domingo with winds of 125 mph, and winds over 150mph in the eastern part of the country. It killed over 2,000 with it’s winds and flooding. Some villages in the mountainous areas were wiped off the map from the flooding and mudslides. Later it moved through the Bahamas, clipped Florida near Vero Beach, and then a final landfall south of Savannah, Georgia. Flooding occurred over the Carolinas, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Delaware.
StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker
Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!