KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is in the forecast for Friday.  An approaching frontal trough may help to enhance and organize storms tomorrow afternoon which could translate to a few locally strong to severe storms.  The main mode of severe weather if it should develop would be damaging winds and perhaps hail so we’ll be on the lookout for that.  In addition, it looks like wet and the potentially stormy weather may continue well into Friday evening as a weak surface front tries to push through the area.  Our latest model run push the bulk of the heavy storms out into the Gulf Saturday morning (look out offshore these storms will mean business) but there may still be the risk of scattered afternoon storms Saturday and Sunday with a cool unstable pocket of air aloft, but on this evening’s forecast package I’ve lowered the rain chances a bit for Saturday…we may bust on the rain chances though, either way!  What we do feel more confident about is that the relative humidity and temperatures should drop a bit this weekend with highs topping out closer to 90.  I’m still going with lows in the upper 60s by Sunday morning but today’s model data was not as supportive for the cooler temperatures…but any break in July is a good one even if we only drop into the lower 70s!

About the same coverage of rain for today, but the difference will be the timing.  Yesterday most of the activity developed in the morning, keeping the skies cloudy most of the day.  Yesterday the high only hit 87 here in Lafayette!  Today the storms are hanging offshore and won’t move inland until later today.  Therefore, with more sunshine in the forecast, highs today should go above 90 yet again. 

A cold front, yes you heard me right, a cold front will move into the area over the weekend.  Ahead of the front rain chances will go up into the likely category, especially on Saturday.  As the front clears the area Sunday, drier air will filter in.  Temperatures for the early part of the week will average about normal, but with lower humidity, it will feel more comfortable!  Even better, drier air cools easier, so night time lows might get into the 60s!  That would be an awesome mid-summer break!

After the tiniest bit of excitement in the tropics earlier this week, everything basically has fizzled out.  Three open tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic and Caribbean.  The upper trough that will (hopefully) bring the cold front should hold on to the east coast and the Gulf region for at least a week.  Unless something develops along the front, I really don’t see any activity for the next week.  Like Rob mentioned, maybe we’ll clear July before anything is named!  -Baker

A weak disturbance appears to have taken up residence across the Northwest Gulf and Louisiana which should enhance Acadiana’s rain chances over the next couple of days.  Meanwhile the models are looking more robust with respect to a cool front that will approach this weekend…keep your fingers crossed!  In the near term, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a few storms develop along the coast late tonight with activity building inland during the daytime heating hours Thursday.  Scattered daytime showers and storms will stay in the forecast for Friday with some possible enhancement during the latter part of the afternoon/evening by a rather vigorous front given the time of year.  Although organized severe weather is not currently forecast there may be a little extra instability and cold air aloft to allow for storms that could produce damaging winds late Friday afternoon into Friday evening.  It will probably take most of Saturday for the front to clear the area so this evening I am going with a good chance of storms Saturday, which potentially could be quite strong with gusty winds and the possibility of cells producing hail.  The upper trough that will develop over the Southeastern U.S. this weekend looks “spring-like strong/deep” and if we are to believe the computer models there is a distinct possibility of seeing overnight lows dropping into the mid-upper 60s for Sunday and Monday mornings!  Right now it looks to stay dry for Sunday and Monday with a few storms possibly returning for mid-late next week.  But with an anomalously strong trough that is forecast to develop expect some changes to the ongoing forecast…for now we’ll dream of lower humidity and cool evenings!

Per Dave’s report this morning, that very good looking tropical wave that emerged off of the African coast Monday looks closer to a regular tropical wave today while models show less development down the line.  The models still have some sort of development off the SE/Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. about this time next week.  And with a very large cold core trough sitting over the SE U.S. this weekend I would venture to say that the northern Gulf will remain shutdown from invaders to the east…and the trough looks way to strong to segue into a tropical feature so hopefully no Gulf storms through the end of this month.

Showers and thunderstorms will be more widespread today as the upper levels become more supportive for lift.  Early this morning rain and storms were developing over the coastal waters of St. Mary parish, and as of mid morning these rains had covered most of St. Mary, Iberia, St. Martin, Vermilion, and parts of Lafayette parish.  Over the next few days, rain chances will be higher.  Into Friday and Saturday, it looks like a front will approach the area from the north.  More showers and storms will be in the area.  By Sunday, there is a hint that the front might actually make it through the area and into the Gulf.  If this happens, the rains will diminish on Monday, and lower humidities might roll in.  Extended models are even forecasting overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s!  Highs are still projected to be around 90, but if we can get lows in the 60s, then the dry air will make 90 feel pretty comfortable compared to the recent heat wave we’ve experienced.

The tropical wave that was off of the coast of Africa yesterday was looking good on satellite imagery, but this morning its not too impressive.  There are still indications of something in the model runs, but it’s not as evident as earlier runs this week.  Right now we’ll just keep an eye on it, but I’m not expecting any development anywhere in the Atlantic basin over the next two or three days.  Enjoy the showers, and the slightly cooler temperatures because of the cloud cover.  –Baker

As Dave mentioned in this morning’s entry, the new wave that he spotted off of the African Coast appeared quite organized and looks even more impressive this afternoon.  The National Hurricane Center is not talking about this wave yet…but they will be if the system looks as robust on satellite shots tomorrow.  While it is indeed early to be looking at waves coming off the African coast this is the best looking purely tropical system so far this season that does appear to have potential down the road.  The Saharan Layer Analysis is showing that most of the dust with this wave is far enough to the north of the system and shouldn’t be a major factor unless the wave develops a northerly component in its movement.  Typically dust coming off the African deserts reduces tropical potential but this year the Dust forecasts are calling for lower than normal dust levels this year…so while the total number of tropical systems may be reduced by El Nino, which incidentally may be a moderate to strong one per latest studies, there may be more viable systems coming from the African coast this year as opposed to the long term average.  The models have been capturing a feature, perhaps this disturbance and have shown varying degrees of modest development while re-curving the system in the Atlantic.  A fairly deep trough will likely remain poised along the East Coast over the next week to 10 days so re-curvature would be the very early call on this system unless it takes a more southern route…we’ll see.  Meanwhile, we are still expecting better than normal rain chances and lower high temperatures at least through the rest of the week.  Rob

After another very hot day on tap for today, the trough deepening to our east should allow more instability as we roll into Wednesday.  Right now we’re watching some storms over northern Mississippi, and they’re weakening as of the late morning hours.  Outflow boundaries might roll off of these storms later this afternoon and produce more storms over southeastern Louisiana, so there might be some storms crossing the Atchafalaya Basin this evening.  That would be nice to see since temperatures are expected to soar into the mid to upper 90s and the heat index should hover around 105 most of the afternoon.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday appear more promising for scattered showers and storms.  As the ridge of high pressure over Texas retreats and weakens, the rain coverage should broaden more each day.  By the weekend, normal afternoon showers and storms will develop.  With the rains and the additional cloud cover, temperatures should be closer to normal for the remainder of the week.

The tropical wave I talked about yesterday doesn’t look very impressive on satellite imagery today.  Models are backing away from development a little more than yesterday, but not dropping the system completely.  There is another robust tropical wave following the initial one closely.  There is a possibility the models are picking up on that one rather than the first.  Any development in this area will be slow to occur.  The latest Tropical Cyclone Formation Area of Interest map puts that area into the “possible” category.  This map has 4 main thresholds.  Unlikely, Possible, Fair, Good.  This is a fairly new product.  Of the cases studied, only 4% of the time has a system developed in the “Possible” category.  It goes up to more than 20% in the “Good” category.  Like I said in the earlier post, I wouldn’t normally be looking at these waves in the central Atlantic this time of year, because most don’t develop.  But again, there hasn’t been much else to look at this year.

Normally during the second half of July, especially with the El Nino phenomena present, I would be focusing more attention to areas closer to home.  The trough that should help us out with rain later this week, might also be a point of interest for tropical weather over the next week or so.  Two areas I would watch, especially this weekend. 

1.  Off the coast of the Carolinas.  Showers and storms have been persistent in this area for the past few weeks because of fronts rolling off of the coast and stalling in the Atlantic.  Wind shear has been high, but might weaken over the next few days.  If anything was to develop over the Gulf-Stream waters, it would more than likely drift northeastward, away from the U.S.

2. That same front is forecast to extend across northern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico to near the mouth of the Mississippi River.  Wind shear over the Gulf should be low for the next few days.  Water temperatures are very warm.  Low pressure could form along the front.  Storms that have rolled offshore from Mississippi and Alabama seem to be holding together.  If they fester offshore long enough and a low develops, it might gain some tropical characteristics.  Direction should also be northeast toward the Florida panhandle, and into the Atlantic. 

Now systems developing along a front in the Gulf this time of year isn’t that unusual.  In fact, the northern Gulf, and near the Atlantic coast are the most likely areas for development during the month of July.  And most that have developed in the past are so close to land, that they don’t get much stronger than a minimal tropical storm.  In drought situations, these systems can be beneficial!  Although they can move slowly and create flooding conditions too.  Large July hurricanes that move into the Gulf usually form in the Atlantic between the Virgin Islands and the Bahamas and drift westward, or develop in the far western Caribbean and move over Cuba toward the northern Gulf Coast.  Fortunately neither of those scenarios are present. 

Stay cool this afternoon. –Baker

As Dave indicated in this morning’s entry, rain chances will be improving for Acadiana as we get deeper into the week.  The upper ridge that re-built into the area yesterday and today will begin to retreat starting late tomorrow.  This in turn will allow for a few more storms to develop in the light northerly flow aloft, but most of these storms should stay well east of the area until the latter part of Tuesday afternoon.  Best chances of getting wet Tuesday will probably be St Martin, Iberia and St Mary parishes where rain chances should get close to 30%…the rest of us will be closer to 20%.  By Wednesday the ridge should break down enough for a better scattering of showers and storms and by Thursday the upper pattern will take on the appearance of an upper trough leading to greater instability and more widespread storminess.  While no organized severe weather is in the forecast some of the bigger storms that develop during the afternoon heating hours will be capable of producing strong downdrafts and possible wet microbursts so it looks like quality time with Power Doppler 3000 and TITAN for us meteororologists later this week!  By the weekend we’ll still have the chance of scattered late afternoon storms but rain chances should decrease closer to an almost normal 30-40%.  The bottom line in the forecast-there is some good news with respect to putting an additional dent in the drought and abnormally dry conditions we have experienced over the last few months.

In other weather news today, NASA had to scrub the shuttle launch for the fifth time and like this weekend, weather criteria with active storms producing lightning within 10 miles to the north of the launch pad plus the additional cloud cover and nearby thunderstorm anvils all conspired to halt the countdown.  NASA will try again Wednesday at 5:03pm CDT…check out NASA TV this evening for the post-scrub briefing and check it out for Wednesday afternoon.  In addition, make sure you subscribe to my Twitter Feed at “robperillo” for the latest on all that is weather, NASA and then some.  Twitter is fast becoming a great way to get breaking news (like the shuttle scrub this afternoon) and weather information.  You can also subscribe to Dave Baker’s Feed for breaking morning weather news and be sure to get the feeds from Good Morning Acadiana and KATC News.

Well, not until the middle of the week.  Sorry about the big headline, but I’ve really been looking for something…anything…in weather that might get me out of this hot and humid rut.  Not a whole lot of rain over the weekend.  I had a stray storm push in at my house Saturday evening.  Not much rain, but there was a pleasant breeze for a while, and some low rumbling thunder.  Yesterday the storms moved out of Mississippi into Louisiana stretching from Baton Rouge to the North Shore, but not much more than residual cloud cover hitting home last night. 

Today, the ridge of high pressure that has dominated our forecast will stay strong today and tomorrow.  By Wednesday the ridge may drift far enough to the west that rain chances will increase, and temperatures should decrease.  Today and tomorrow highs will reach the upper 90s with the heat index around 107.  As the trough over the Eastern United States deepens, it should push the storm track closer to the area.  Right now storms have been located from Kansas, through Arkansas, and into northern Mississippi and Alabama.  I’ll go with 30% for Wednesday, 40% for Thursday, and 50% for Friday.  The front will weaken afterward, so we’ll go back down to 30% for the weekend.

Could we see changes in the tropics anytime soon?  Well, the bloggers are getting excited about a tropical wave that has moved off of the African coast.  Early last week we had some models showing activity in the eastern Atlantic.  By the end of the week, most models had dropped this system.  Models are once again picking up on this wave now that it has moved over water.  Even though Cape Verde season really doesn’t get going until early August, it’s really the first significant thing we’ve been able to look at all summer.  I can see why weather bloggers and junkies are humming.  

Wind shear near this area is fairly low, and is expected to stay low as it makes its westward progress.  The system is pretty far to the south, so Saharan dust might not influence it either.  The southerly position does have it precariously close to the ITCZ, so that’s the inhibiting factor right now.  All of the extended models drag it off to the west, eventually passing north of the Leeward Islands, so a Caribbean trip looks to be out for now.  Then another fairly strong upper level trough is expected to develop over the northeastern U.S and western Atlantic.  This trough has been persistent most of the summer so far.  It should help to pull it northward before reaching the Bahamas, swinging it away from the east coast, and hopefully clearing Bermuda too.  A pretty technical discussion for something that isn’t much more than a mass of clouds.  I guess I’m looking for something to talk about too!

We’ve got just under two months before the “peak” of the season.  This is the perfect time to review your hurricane plan.  Time to get updated documents together in a safe dry place.  Review or improve your evacuation plan, especially if you had problems during Gustav last year.  Update contact numbers with friends and family that live outside of the Acadiana area.  Have LOTS of stuff to keep your kids occupied whether staying or going.  Replenish some of the hurricane survival supplies that you used while camping this spring, or because you just didn’t feel like going to the store on a hot day, or you have desperate, hungry teenagers that found the stash!  Hope you have a good week!–Baker

Scattered, slow moving showers this weekend were enough to keep temperatures from topping out in the upper 90s. Weak upper level disturbances rotaing aroung the Texas centered high gave us the rain. But it looks like that high will be the major role player Monday and Tuesday keeping us hot and dry. Temperatures will shoot back into the upper 90s with heat indices up to 108. Computer models show a trough developing to our east pushing the high west giving us a better shot at rain once again. Temperatures should come back down too from Wednesday through the rest of the week.

It’s been nice to the grass turn back green. If you’ve been trying to water the lawn keep in mind your watering schedule: Odd addresses  on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday. Evens on Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday. No watering on Monday. It shouldn’t be too much of a problem because it looks like we’ll all get a good soaking by the end of next week.

Have a great week!

Actually this weekend should be a little cooler than last weekend…at least highs will be closer to the mid-90s than near the century mark.  The upper ridge of high pressure centered over Texas/Oklahoma strengthened its grip across Acadiana this afternoon allowing for just a few healthy coastal storms and isolated popcorn-style showers inland late this afternoon.  I would expect little change for tomorrow with a slightly better chance of a few sea-breeze oriented storms Sunday afternoon.  Rain chances look to stay in the 10% range at least through the middle part of next week.  The ridge may strengthen Monday/Tuesday of next week which should translate into highs edging closer to the upper 90s.  By the end of next week the ridge may back-off a bit allowing for deeper atmospheric moisture and instability which may only improve our rain chances back to near “normal” for July…which is around 30%.

The recent rains have certainly helped in some areas with respect to the drought knocking Acadia, Lafayette, Southern St Landry, St Martin, Iberia and St Mary Parishes back into the “abnormally dry” category as opposed to “moderate drought” status.  Northern parishes of Acadiana remain in a moderate drought with little significant improvement in sight.  It could be worse…especially as you travel back into the Texas Hill country where areas like College Station have not seen a drop of rain in 46 days.  As mentioned in previous entries as we get closer to August we should see the moist tropical easterlies becoming a little more pronounced unless the semi-permanent June/early July ridge says otherwise…then drought conditions would likely worsen by several degrees.  In the near term – have a great weekend and try to stay cool!  Rob