KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

A better chance of showers and storms will develop across Acadiana Friday as another upper level disturbance moves in from the northwest.  This impulse may actually ignite scattered storms overnight especially across Central Louisiana.  Best chance of showers and storms should occur during the morning through mid-afternoon hours Friday with activity slowly decreasing in intensity and coverage through the latter part of Friday afternoon.  Lingering moisture combined with daytime heating should allow for at least some scattered afternoon showers and storms this weekend but drier more stable air aloft will be trying to move in as well.  Rain chances should drop significantly for early next week as high pressure ridging aloft builds into the region.  By mid-late next week the pattern appears to finally change with the sub-tropical jet moving well to the north and allowing for tropical easterlies to start moving into the Gulf.  This could allow for better rain chances be next Wednesday or Thursday, but forecasting a significant change in the pattern we have seen over the last few weeks is difficult given the performance of the longer range models so far this summer.  As mentioned yesterday, the long range GFS is still indicating a fair bit of “troughiness” in the Gulf by the 13th-15th of August…which could translate to some disturbed tropical weather…we’ll see.  In the near term, keep that umbrella handy for the Friday downpours.