As we head into the month of August this weekend we’re still waiting on the first named storm of the 2009 Hurricane Season. Only three times in the last 20 years have we seen this late of a start, and in the past 50 years it’s only happened about 30% of the time. Out of all of the hurricane seasons on record, an August start only happens 26% of the time. Believe it or not, there have been a handfull of seasons where the first tropical storm didn’t develop until after the first of September. The last time that happened was in 1941. There’s only about an 8% chance of that happening in any given year.
Some have asked, “If the season starts late, then there should be lower numbers of storms because there’s less time left in the season, right?” Well, the answer is “NO”. A little more than half of the seasons in the past 50 years that were off to an August start had above normal activity, averaging about 13 named storms. About the same number of seasons had above normal numbers of “Major” hurricanes meaning Category 3 or higher. Another thing that stuck out in the data was that out of the 7 late starting seasons that produced lower than normal activity, 4 of those had a Category 5! This would include Hurricane Andrew in 1992. 1992 produced only 7 named storms, but Andrew’s damage alone totalled about $35 Billion! That’s comparable to Hurricanes Charley, Ivan, and Jeanne combined in 2004. And costlier than Hurricanes Ike and Gustav in 2008. Only the record setting season of 2005 caused more financial damage to the United States thanks to Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Dennis.
Now looking at the models, I don’t see much activity in the near future. Models that go out beyond a week don’t show much either. Extended models are virtually clear too. The most far reaching model available to me goes out to August 14th, but forecasts that far out aren’t very dependable. Funny thing though. Out of the seasons that had an August start over the past 50 years, the first named storm on average developed, you guessed it, August 14th!
So we’re already off to a late start, and El Nino (like in 1992) should produce lower numbers. But does this mean that “The Big One” will be out there? If history proves itself, then there would be almost a 60% chance of that happening!
I’ll be out for a few days. Kari Hall will be enjoying the the antics of the Good Morning Acadiana and carrying you through the weekend. -Baker