KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

…will make for a tricky forecast over the next couple of days…well come to think of it’s been tricky ever since the June/July heat wave busted early this month. An unusual frontal boundary will stay in the vicinity of south-central Louisiana over the next several days while disturbances in the northwest flow aloft will likely ignite scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Where the storms take up residence is the question de jour.  In addition, there are hints of drying and warming aloft which makes an argument for lowering the rain chances.  So the forecast is certainly fraught with hedges but we’ll go with a little more dull sunshine tomorrow, with the chance of scattered daytime showers and storms, and put the most favored areas for seeing storms along the coastal parishes and/or offshore.  Thunderstorm activity however,  could certainly dictate where the frontal boundary will go and a shift 20 miles to the north or 20 miles farther to the south would make big differences in the forecast.  The models are coming in even drier for Friday but we haven’t bought into that quite yet…we’ll see how successive model runs look through this evening.  This weekend should be a typical July/August weekend with partly cloudy, hot and humid conditions along with the chance of scattered mainly daytime heating induced showers and thunderstorms.  Next week looks more interesting as our first real slug of tropical moisture will push into the Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean with the moisture likely to add to our rain chances by mid-next week.  Rob