We’ve been watching Tropical Disturbance 97L since the end of last week. Yesterday it crossed the Leeward Islands and today it’s south of Puerto Rico. So far all it has generated is some heavy rain and some gusty winds over the islands. Even today there is a good flare up of storms, but wind shear in the area is still way to strong for this to develop. The track continues to take this westward toward the Dominican Republic.
Another area worth watching today is a little closer to home. Over the Bahamas a tropical wave has been producing numerous showers and thunderstorms. This wave will continue to drift toward the northwest. A couple of models have picked up on this wave, possibly having it acquire tropical characteristics later this week off of the coast of North Carolina. After that most models show this disturbance rocketing northeast, following the general upper level pattern that has kept a trough over the east coast, blocking any systems from having much impact.
Activity, or at least suspected activity should be on the increase over the next several weeks. The peak of the hurricane season is only about 6 weeks away. August and September normally have more than half of the annual tropical activity. I did take a look back at the last 30 years, and only 9 times have we not had a 1st named storm by July 21st. Funny thing is, seven of those seasons are between 1980 and 1992. This was during the “low activity” cycle that lasted from 1970-1994. The current 20-25 year “high activity” cycle we’re in started in 1995. Scientists have mapped out other “natural” cycles of increased or decreased activity in the past. Other notable “highs” lasted from 1940-1965, and 1875-1900. Significant “lows” were from 1855-1874 and 1901-1924.
Closer to home, with a ridge over the west and a trough in the east, the upper level pattern will continue to drive disturbances in from our northwest. One in particular was generating quite a bit of rain over Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Texas early this morning. This will drift southward and may bring us some rain later this afternoon. A front will drift to central Louisiana by Thursday and stall. Another front is indicated later this weekend that might bring another shot of dry air by Sunday. Two cold fronts in July??? Are you kidding me??? –Baker