KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Updates to the on-going forecast include the latest on our waffling rain chances.  Today the global, large scale computer models continue to call for excellent rain chances tomorrow and Sunday while our in house Futurecast model, which is generally a more robust model with respect to cool fronts is pushing most activity offshore and back into Texas this weekend.  The quagmire de jour remains that a northwest flow aloft behind a deep upper trough will continue this weekend.  In this type of pattern we are vulnerable to mesoconvective complexes that develop in the High Plains and then race southward in the flow.  Even though our temperatures and dew points will drop to below normal levels this weekend, don’t be surprised if a couple of hefty storms roll through, especially Saturday night into early Sunday (but I would favor SE Texas more so than Louisiana at this point).  The global models pick up nicely on this feature but the Futurecast only hints at it…so we’ll go with a blend tonight (and as I write this the latest global model run is coming in drier).  The bottom line forecast…as of now…will be partly to mostly sunny conditions across most of Acadiana Saturday, except along the coast where clouds will persist longer.  Most of the storms should stay offshore with some back-building along the coastal parishes for tomorrow afternoon possible.  Scattered storms will be possible Saturday night into early Sunday with the window of opportunity previously discussed…and timing these events is always difficult so we could be off by a good 6-12 hours.  More clouds and the chance of storms will be possible Sunday.  The best part about this weekend will be that highs should be limited in the upper 80s to lower 90s tomorrow and mid-upper 80s Sunday while overnight lows drop into the upper 60s by Sunday morning…and relative humidity should get more comfortable through Sunday.  It will be interesting to see how this weekend plays out…not the “same-old-same old”!  Enjoy and have a good weekend!  Rob