KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

This weekend will bring more typical heat, humidity and the obligatory chance of scattered mainly afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms.  Our benign pattern appears to become even more sedate as high pressure ridging aloft will build across the area  next week knocking down our rain chances into the isolated category and allowing for highs to push well into the mid-90s.  In fact some spots across Central Louisiana may begin to approach the 100 degree mark a few days next week.  The tropics remain nice and quiet and although I’m starting to get emails about “where is the hurricane season?”…one has to remember that nearly 90% of all activity in most years occurs after mid-August.  So far, thanks to El Nino and plenty of dry Saharan air and dust enveloping Atlantic tropical waves, we’re are off to a nice and quiet start.  We’ll probably have another couple of weeks before things begin to heat up.  In the mean time, enjoy the weekend!  Rob

A better chance of showers and storms will develop across Acadiana Friday as another upper level disturbance moves in from the northwest.  This impulse may actually ignite scattered storms overnight especially across Central Louisiana.  Best chance of showers and storms should occur during the morning through mid-afternoon hours Friday with activity slowly decreasing in intensity and coverage through the latter part of Friday afternoon.  Lingering moisture combined with daytime heating should allow for at least some scattered afternoon showers and storms this weekend but drier more stable air aloft will be trying to move in as well.  Rain chances should drop significantly for early next week as high pressure ridging aloft builds into the region.  By mid-late next week the pattern appears to finally change with the sub-tropical jet moving well to the north and allowing for tropical easterlies to start moving into the Gulf.  This could allow for better rain chances be next Wednesday or Thursday, but forecasting a significant change in the pattern we have seen over the last few weeks is difficult given the performance of the longer range models so far this summer.  As mentioned yesterday, the long range GFS is still indicating a fair bit of “troughiness” in the Gulf by the 13th-15th of August…which could translate to some disturbed tropical weather…we’ll see.  In the near term, keep that umbrella handy for the Friday downpours.

Our weather pattern will see little in the way of day to day changes for the rest of the week into the weekend.  Expect partly cloudy, hazy, hot and humid conditions to continue with the chance of scattered daytime showers and a few storms Thursday.  A slightly better chance of storms may develop for Friday and Saturday as another frontal trough approaches but runs out of gas before it reaches our parishes.  The focus for best rain chances will likely continue for the northern part of the state and through the Arklatex.  So the forecast will keep rain chances in the 30-40% range through the weekend with models trying to dry us out a little next week but I wouldn’t expect rain chances to go much lower than 20% at this time.  Daytime highs will stay in the low-mid 90s each and every day through next week with heat indices approaching 105.  It may get a little more interesting in 12-14 days as the long range models try to pinch a disturbance off of persistent upper trough over the southeast US and then have it drift southwestward into the Gulf and our vicinity…this is certainly a possible scenario for tropical development but we will have to see more model consistency before we jump on the bandwagon.  Rob

As we head into the month of August this weekend we’re still waiting on the first named storm of the 2009 Hurricane Season.  Only three times in the last 20 years have we seen this late of a start, and in the past 50 years it’s only happened about 30% of the time.  Out of all of the hurricane seasons on record, an August start only happens 26% of the time.  Believe it or not, there have been a handfull of seasons where the first tropical storm didn’t develop until after the first of September.  The last time that happened was in 1941.  There’s only about an 8% chance of that happening in any given year.

Some have asked, “If the season starts late, then there should be lower numbers of storms because there’s less time left in the season, right?”  Well, the answer is “NO”.  A little more than half of the seasons in the past 50 years that were off to an August start had above normal activity, averaging about 13 named storms.  About the same number of seasons had above normal numbers of “Major” hurricanes meaning Category 3 or higher.  Another thing that stuck out in the data was that out of the 7 late starting seasons that produced lower than normal activity, 4 of those had a Category 5!  This would include Hurricane Andrew in 1992.  1992 produced only 7 named storms, but Andrew’s damage alone totalled about $35 Billion!  That’s comparable to Hurricanes Charley, Ivan, and Jeanne combined in 2004.  And costlier than Hurricanes Ike and Gustav in 2008.  Only the record setting season of 2005 caused more financial damage to the United States thanks to Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Dennis. 

Now looking at the models, I don’t see much activity in the near future.  Models that go out beyond a week don’t show much either.  Extended models are virtually clear too.  The most far reaching model available to me goes out to August 14th, but forecasts that far out aren’t very dependable.   Funny thing though. Out of the seasons that had an August start over the past 50 years, the first named storm on average developed,  you guessed it, August 14th!

So we’re already off to a late start, and El Nino (like in 1992) should produce lower numbers.  But does this mean that “The Big One” will be out there?  If history proves itself, then there would be almost a 60% chance of that happening! 

I’ll be out for a few days.  Kari Hall will be enjoying the the antics of the Good Morning Acadiana and carrying you through the weekend.  -Baker

Hopefully the sky cover will cooperate this evening as a rare flyover opportunity may be visible tonight as the Space Shuttle Endeavour, the International Space Station and the Russian supply ship are flying over Acadiana at about 915pthis Tuesday evening .  The shuttle should be visible first then the space station (about 150 miles behind but they’ll appear close to one another) followed by the supply ship.  Look toward the west-northwestern sky and don’t be late…the spacecrafts will only be visible for about 2 and a half minutes.  Keep your fingers crossed on the sky cover!

Meanwhile back on Earth even though most of us missed out on the storms today we should see a good scattering of showers and storms tomorrow with the daytime heating.  Plenty of tropical moisture and instability should stay with us tomorrow while drier more stable air tries to move in for Thursday allowing us to lower the rain chances slightly.  Yet another frontal trough will approach for Friday allowing for increasing rain chances again as we head into the weekend.  Daytime highs will continue in the lower 90s away from the storms with heat indices pushing into the low 100s.  Interestingly enough the anomalous upper level pattern of a northwest flow aloft is expected to continue through the first week of August…keeping the chance of storms in the forecast and tropical easterly waves suppressed well south of the northern Gulf Coast.  Rob

Rain and thunderstorms will continue across the region for the next few days with occasional heavy downpours.  Cloud to ground lightning will be  likely too.  Isolated thunderstorms developed during the early part of the morning commute right over Lafayette.  We had quite a bit of lightning and thunder, and a few areas of gusty winds early on.  Even a waterspout was seen over the Gulf waters early this morning!  Thanks to the gang at Eugene Island 63 for the pic!

As of mid morning some of the activity has tapered off, but as the temperatures warm back into the mid 80s with a little bit of sunshine more storms should get going.  With these storms moving very slowly there could be some localized street flooding.  Temperatures should hold just below the 90 degree mark. 

Since the beginning of July, total rains have been much better than during the month of  June.  Many areas are starting to see the drought conditions ease.  With the current forecast it looks like we’ll end the month of July a bit above normal on total rainfall. As of the end of the day yesterday, we have made up over 2.5″ from the rainfall deficit.  We’re about 7.5″ below normal for the year now.  In New Iberia the totals are still 9.5 inches below normal, but that’s way better than the 12″ deficit at the end of June!  New Iberia still leads the area when it comes to drought.  Alexandria is a close second.  Lake Charles seems to be doing the best, now just over 2 inches below normal for the year.  The next two weeks look pretty good for rainfall too.  Some models I’m looking at show average amounts up to 4 or 5 inches over the next 14 days.  Of course heavy, slow moving storms can bring those kind of totals in an hour or so! 

What’s also nice about this rainfall forecast is none of it appears to be generated by any tropical activity.  All of the extended models I’ve looked at show mostly quiet conditions.  Only one model hints at a tropical wave trying to get organized east of the Leeward Islands, but this isn’t showing up until after the 1st week in August is over.  Wouldn’t it be nice to see the season stay this quiet.  I know it’s wishful thinking, but how wonderful it would be to just sit back and enjoy the rest of the summer without any worries from the Gulf?  And..I’d love to see the start of the school year uninterrupted!  Wouldn’t you??

We got a healthy round of storms today. Most of us got heavy rain, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and some gusty winds. One of those storms prompted a severe thunderstorm warning in Acadia, St. Landry, and Evangeline parishes as it moved through Eunice to Church Point. I didn’t get any reports of severe weather but there was some minor flooding, especially off to the west. A viewer sent a picture of his pine tree after it was struck by lightning. Quite often we see lightning split trees in half and other times, we see the path it takes to the ground through the tree with just a line. He said the bark from the tree blew all over the yard and the thunder was tremendous. And just think, lightning is 5 times hotter than the sun! But it’s why typical summer storms turn very dangerous.  We’ll have more storms over the next few days so remember, when it roars get indoors!

We enjoyed sunny skies Saturday but temperatures warmed up to the mid 90s. Sunday rain chances will be about 40% as a front nears the state. Monday and Tuesday that front will stall just to our north and will act as a forcing mechanism for air to rise and form storms. I’m going with a 70% chance of rain Monday and a good chance Tuesday. After that we should return to the norm with a few scattered showers with daytime heating.

As I learned this week reporting on the sugurcane crop, the rain has really helped. It’s growing very well with the wet weather but it’s about time for the rice crop to be harvested. Rice farmers don’t need the fields to be wet because their machines can put ruts in the soil and damage it for future planting. From what I’ve heard it’s been a pretty good season for all. We just have to keep the hurricanes away and so far, so good.

Enjoy your weekend!

The frontal trough that enhanced our rain chances during the course of this week has pushed far enough offshore to allow for slightly drier and more stable air…especially aloft.  So the heat and humidity will likely continue but the chance of storms has dropped to about 20% for Saturday and less than 20% for Sunday.  Yes there will be widely scattered storms during the afternoon hours, but fewer folks should get wet…unless something parks right over the cities of Lafayette or New Iberia…which sometimes happens messing up the perception of an accurate forecast!  Highs will be in the lower 90s this weekend while lows reside in the low-mid 70s for Saturday morning and mid-70s for Sunday morning.  Yet another frontal trough will approach next week engendering better rain chances and quite possibly inducing deeper tropical moisture out of the Gulf.  So rain chances will probably go up nicely through mid-next week.  The tropics remain incredibly quiet given the persistence of the last 12 out of 14 seasons…thanks to El Nino and plenty of dry and dusty Saharan air traveling with the tropical impulses so far.  But just because El Nino knocks down the total number of storms, doesn’t mean we will not have a threat later this season.  Gulf of Mexico activity during El Nino years can sometimes be suppressed in numbers but can turn out to be active…remember that Audrey (1957), Betsy (1965) and Andrew (1992) all came during El Nino years…I will be talking about this in our upcoming hurricane special that will air on KATC August 1st…Have a great weekend!  Rob

Midday rains yesterday helped to keep the temperatures down a few degrees, only hitting 85 both at Lafayette and New Iberia.  The showers avoided the Lafayette Regional Airport, and Acadiana Regional picked up 0.13″.  Here at TV3 a light shower moved through around lunchtime. 

With our front now stationary over central Louisiana, the moisture is pooled across Acadiana and the Gulf waters.  So far this morning the rains have been offshore or right along the immediate coastline.  As temperatures warm up this afternoon scattered storms will pop up again.  Most of the rain today will be south of I-10.  A bit more sunshine this morning should help to boost the temperatures above the 90 degree mark today.  The front will linger tonight, but fizzle out tomorrow. 

Drier air will move in aloft over the weekend.  This should prevent some of the storms during the afternoon.  Unfortunately warmer and drier air in the mid and upper part of the atmosphere will hold the humidity right here at the surface.  Therefore with more sunshine temperatures will warm back into the mid 90s, and with high humidity, the heat index will be flirting with 105 again Saturday and Sunday.  More of a typical summer pattern is setting up for next week, but there will be remnant moisture from an old tropical wave/disturbance (97L)  that will roll in our direction.  Rain chances will be going up again by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Another disturbance near the Carolina coast seems to be forming a surface feature.  Most of the cloudiness and rain associated with this was caused by a front interacting with an upper level trough over the east coast.  The disturbance should start to rapidly shoot toward the northeast over the colder waters of the Atlantic.  There is a slight chance for development, but right now it looks like it would be more “Subtropical” in nature rather than a full blown “tropical” heat generating system.  Another tropical wave that was near the Windward Islands yesterday fell apart this morning.