KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Well at least at my house around 3:00 Tuesday afternoon, my kids burst into the house yelling, “Daddy!! It’s raining!!”  In disbelief, I walked to the door, and sure enough a few droplets were coming down on the driveway.  To my southwest I could see a pretty good downpour in the distance.  Enough fell to cover the driveway, but the downpour missed me and puddles were forming on the road just a couple of blocks away.  Usually when we get a little rain like that on a hot day, it just becomes steamy.  But yesterday, the rain evaporated so quickly that it immediately went back to hot, dry, blast furnace conditions.  Officially at Acadiana Regional Airport (ARA) in New Iberia a trace of rain was recorded.  Also ARA set a record high of 100 degrees.  So far New Iberia has just 0.13″ of rain in the bucket for the month of June. 

Here in Lafayette, a 20th straight day with no measurable rain.  Today will mark three weeks since that last rainfall here in the Hub City.  Yesterday’s high hit 99 degrees, just narrowly missing the record of 100 that was set back in 1930.

There is a front that has worked slowly to the southwest.  It is slowing down and will dissipate later this afternoon.  Before it stalls it should run from Miami to about Shreveport, and lie along the eastern border of Acadiana.  Therefore for the first time in a long time, I’ve put a 20% chance in today’s forecast.  Best chances will be from the I-49, Highway 90 corridor and points east.  So Opelousas, Lafayette, New Iberia, and Morgan City be on the lookout, also any city east of that line!  Western parishes might have to wait it out until this weekend.  Saturday the main ridge of high pressure that has kept us dry for so long, will finally begin to move west.  That should allow a bit more instablity, and with pleanty of moisture hanging around, more afternoon showers or thunderstorms will pop up in the afternoon.  This trend should go into the middle part of next week, so hopefully the extra clouds, and showers will bring our temperatures back down to normal by Wednesday.

The heat index will again top around 105 today and tomorrow.  If you have to be outside for an extended period of time, try to take breaks, get to some shade or air conditioning.  Of course drink plenty of water to keep yourself hydrated.  -Baker

Our heat wave will magnify for mid-week as surface winds turn more northwesterly tomorrow and northerly for Wednesday which will minimize/limit the “cooling” effects of the Gulf.  Today was the 4th day in a row with a high of 98 degrees in Lafayette.  Tomorrow, Wednesday and perhaps Thursday highs will touch near 100 before deeper moisture works its way into the region allowing for more clouds this weekend and hopefully a few afternoon showers and storms.   Rainfall will not be expansive enough to slow the drought situation across the area however.  Our first decent (better than 5%) chance of isolated showers may come Wednesday with a weak frontal trough pushing through…but the window will be limited to a 10% or 20% chance and should be limited to just Wednesday.  Hopefully slightly lower dew points will move in later this week but the high heat will likely continue with highs in the upper 90s through Friday.  Heat indices will likely approach 105-108 tomorrow afternoon and with lows closer to 80 tomorrow night a “heat advisory” may be issued by the NWS tomorrow.  By this weekend the strong upper ridge should begin to flatten allowing for a slightly more unstable atmosphere which should manifest in more clouds, and hopefully a few more late afternoon showers.  Highs this weekend should be closer to the mid-90s but may creep back into the upper 90s again next week.  Unfortunately, looking at the long-range projections, it appears the severity of our drought will worsen through the first few days of July…but the pattern should change by the end of that first week of next month…we hope.  If not, we’ll be taking applications for some rain-dancers!  Rob

Another very hot and dry one out there today with 98 degrees the high in Lafayette for the third day in a row.  Unfortunately it appears that the heat will increase another notch over the next few days as our predominant surface winds gain a more westerly component.  That mean highs between 99-101 for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Heat indices will continue to run between 103-107 with hopefully slightly lower aftternoon dew points with a more westerly wind.  The pattern may change later this week into the weekend as the strong upper ridges that has been dominating our weather for the last two weeks which may allow for slightly cooler temperatures several thousand feet aloft which could translate to highs getting back down into the mid-90s…never that that would sound good.   Also there may be a few pop-up, heat-induced showers from Wednesday on bet chances of getting wet should be less than 10%.  The longer range models are indicating an inverted upper trough may build into the northwestern Gulf if the high retreats far enough which could give slightly better prospects of scattered showers and a few storms by next Sunday.  I wouldn’t be too optimistic on any significant rains through the first week of July…so the drought will continue to worsen across the area.  Hopefully we see a change… sooner than later. Rob

Will keep it short and sweet into the weekend as you don’t need a meteorologist to tell you it’s hot out there!  We hit 98 degrees in Lafayette and New Iberia this afternoon with highs likely to stay between 97-99 through Wednesday.  As I previously mentioned, I wouldn’t be surprised by some readings in the low 100′s across Central Louisiana this weekend and northern portions of Acadiana through early next week.  This makes 11 days straight in the 90s and more than a week in the mid-90s or higher with no rain since the 4th of the month.  Although there isn’t a true definition of a “heat wave” for our part of the world, as our heat lasts all summer long, it would be accurate to call this a “heat wave”…more than likely we’ll be adding “moderate drought” to our status before long.   The dominant upper ridge is still expected to retrograde enough to the west next week to allow for a weak backdoor frontal boundary to approach from the northeast by Wednesday which could open the door for some late afternoon storms and highs closer to the mid-90s.  Keep your fingers crossed!  In the meantime, expect heat indices to reach 102-107 so stay hydrated, get indoors with some air conditioning, and make sure to check on the elderly as they are more susceptible to heat exhaustion on short notice.  Think cool thoughts and remember just six months ago we had snow here! Have a good weekend!  Rob

Thursday the temperature topped out at 97 degrees, making it the hottest day so far in 2009.  Today with the pattern staying about the same, it appears we might soar into the mid to upper 90s again today.  Humidity levels should stay about normal, so the heat index should stay about normal for the next several days. 

A Tropical Depression that was located in the Pacific will stream its moisture over west Texas into the middle part of the country.  Unfortunately we won’t be able to tap into any of this moisture, and areas up north that have had record amounts of rain will continue to stay wet.  Severe weather will also be a problem in the upper midwest and the Great Lakes region over the weekend.

The patter might shift a bit next week, allowing a cold front to meander toward Georgia and northern Alabama, that is our closest chance for rain, but it won’t be in here until late next week.  Even those rain chances are about 20%, so don’t bet the house just yet.  Enjoy your weekend, and try to stay cool.  -Baker

It was the hottest day of the year with temperatures topping out at 97 degrees in Lafayette and 96 degrees in New Iberia.  The dominant ridge of high pressure that has brought us this heat will drift a little eastward this weekend allowing for perhaps a few more afternoon clouds by Sunday, but not much in the way of any significant shower activity.  The ridge should build slowly back to the west next week which will do two things: 1-open the door for a northerly or northeasterly flow aloft giving us a slightly better chance of a late afternoon isolated shower or thunderstorm and 2-allow for a more continental surface and boundary layer wind which will likely translate to even hotter temperatures.  Rain chances at best look to be no higher than 20% mid-late next week but if we can generate 4 or 5 days of 20% then we could see  at least something that will cool us off and give us much needed moisture, although likely not enough.  Temperatures will likely continue in the mid-upper 90s with upper 90s to near 100 quite possible next week, especially along and north of the I-10 corridor…so the heat wave will get magnified…literally!

The Drought Monitor published their latest outlook on the area and still hasn’t put us into a “moderate” drought, but we are just about there…right now they are calling us “abnormally dry”…and with the current pattern projected through next week, that status will certainly worsen.  The outlook over the next few months calls for worsening conditions across Southeast Texas but by the grace of increased tropical miosture in the months ahead, we are not in that outlook…but that could change as well.  Stagnent ridges such as what is dominating our weather right now are stubborn to dislodge so it looks like we’ll have to hope for a:”backdoor” cool front and/or tropical easterly surges/waves to break the pattern that we are in…that probably won’t happen for at least another week to 10 days.

  Typically this time of year, the “Bermuda High” is in place at the surface over the Atlantic allowing rich Gulf moisture to flow into Louisiana at the low levels of the atmosphere.  The upper level ridge normally would be parked over Texas allowing for a northwest flow aloft, allowing weak disturbances to stream in and keep relatively unstable air aloft.  With daytime heating, the warm, humid air lifts, cools, condenses, and we get afternoon thunderstorms.  The sun goes down, the storms dissipate, and the sky clears.  Then we do it all over again the next day.  That would be normal.

This year, the Bermuda High has been positioned too far to the west, and the upper level ridge has been positioned too far to the east.  This allows stable air at all levels of the atmosphere.  So even when we have moisture flowing in off of the Gulf, the daytime heating kicks in, but the air can’t lift.  The stable air aloft won’t let it rise.  If it can’t rise, it can’t cool.  If it can’t cool, it can’t condense.  If it can’t condense, then we don’t get any rain!

Now here we sit on day 15 with no rain in Acadiana, and the pattern is still stuck.  Models are hinting that the upper level features might start to kick back to near normal by the end of next week.  If they do, the air aloft might be a bit more unstable.  If we can get a trough to dig over the East Coast, then we might be able to get some relief from the northeast.  Watch out for these storms if they come!  We’ve had many clusters of storms that develop over northern Alabama and Mississippi that cruise southwestward and hold on into the early evening hours.  These types of storms catch people off guard because they come in from the opposite direction than we’re used to.  They also scream in at high rates of speed, and usually after the sun goes down.  These storms can bring gusty winds, and a pretty spectacular lightning show.  They bring decent amounts of rain, which we do need.  We’ll see next week, but for now it’s going to stay dry.  -Baker

We continue to see little change on the weather pattern over the next several days as a strong ridge of high pressure remains dominant across the Gulf States.  The upper ridge will drift slightly eastward over the next few days probably allowing for more haze in the area while the ridge should begin to drift back to the west later this weekend into early next week.  The long-range models continue to hint that the ridge will drift far enough to the west to allow a weak frontal trough to approach the area from the northeast which should in turn allow for a more destabilized atmosphere and hopefully a chance of scattered showers and storms by next Wednesday…keep your fingers crossed!  Daytime highs will likely range between 95-97 through next Tuesday with a break in the heat possible by Wednesday…overnight lows will drift closer to the mid-70s.  Incidentally summer officially kicks in for Father’s Day, Sunday…so we have to call the recent hot weather “spring heat” rather than summer heat!  Interestingly enough, the longer range models are pointing to increasing tropical moisture pooling in the Gulf the last few days of the month with some sort of weak tropical system possibly providing us with a significant rain chance in early July.  Hoping for the tropical rains, but we always have to be careful of what we wish for, but at least it looks to be on the wet side for the first few days of July…we’ll see.  I’m showing the long range GFS model tonight at 600pm and then the updated model cycle at 10pm…stay tuned.  Rob

“Hazy, hot and humid!”  I know we sound like a broken record this time of year, but this year we don’t even get to change it up with the typical, “slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms…”!  Here we are on day 14 without any rain here in Acadiana.  Far from any records, but getting quite dry across the area.  Models aren’t suggesting any break to the pattern until late next week and the earliest!

Temperatures have been running about 5 degrees above normal during the day and just a couple of degrees above normal at night.  Fortunately the humidity levels aren’t anything out of the ordinary for this time of year, so the heat index has been hoverning around a pleasant 100 degrees.  Believe me, it could be worse.  Many times during mid and late June, the heat index can reach 110!  Especially when we have isolated storms in the area, and the ground is moist.  So enjoy the 98-100 degree heat index, I’m sure the real heat will kick in sometime this summer!

Tropics continue to stay very quiet.  The Gulf of Mexico is virtually clear of any clouds at this time.  The Caribbean has a few showers near the coast of Belize, but clear everywhere else.  The Atlantic Ocean, near the Gulf Stream region from Miami to the Mid-Atlantic States, have seen a few rounds of storms push offshore.  Sometimes those can generate into tropical systems, especially if there is a front involved.  Right now there is a stationary front draped from Charleston, South Carolina to around Bermuda.  Storms have moved along that front, but so far no circulations have developed.  Models don’t indicate anything in the future, but at least for the next week, that will be the place to watch.  Chances for development in that region are very slim, but it’s the only place we have to look at right now. 

Generally the Atlantic from the coast of Africa to the island gateway to the Caribbean is quiet at this time of year.  The last time we saw anything develop in the open Atlantic east of the Leeward Islands was in 1979 with Tropical Storm Ana.  It crossed the islands and then broke apart in the central Caribbean.  In 1933, a tropical wave developed there, and later became a hurricane.  It brushed Tobago, then made landfall in Venezuela.  It re-emerged into the Caribbean becoming a hurricane again, striking Cuba.  It drifted into the Gulf of Mexico, becoming a Category 2 hurricane before turning more westward and striking the coast of Mexico north of Tampico. 

By the way, the 1933 hurricane season was the most active season on record with 21 storms!  That is, until 28 storms plagued the Atlantic Basin in 2005 smashing the 72 year old record!

I had to do a little more digging to see some of the significant dry periods we’ve seen here in Acadiana over the last 8 years or so.  Tomorrow will mark day 14 since we’ve seen any measurable rain here in Lafayette.  As I went back I was able to find about a handfull of periods where we went two full weeks without rainfall.  I was also able to find a couple of periods where we had dry spells with a few “trace” amounts thrown in.  We had a 26 day run from April 15-May 11, 2002 where we had 2 of those days recording a trace.  A longer 31 day stretch from April 25-May 25, 2003, but there were 6 days in there where we had a trace in the bucket.

But I was searching for “dry” periods, where we had 0.00″ in the column for a stretch of days.  Here’s what I found:

April 15-May 4, 2002                                19 Days

October 26-November 21, 2001          27 Days

October 3-October 30, 2005                 28 Days

These are pretty significant lengths of time where we stayed dry.  But one thing to point out is that April, October, and November are the driest months in Acadiana.  So seeing long stretches of no rain during those times of the year isn’t that unusual.

What is a bit unusual is the pattern we are seeing now.  It’s June..  Only July and January average more rain.  Recently, 5 out of the past 8 years have had wetter than normal Junes.  Three of those years we had more than 10 inches of rain, and in 2001 we had more than 20!  Thanks, Allison.  2005, 2006, and 2007 were they dry Junes, with 2006 being the driest with only 0.87″ recorded.  We’ve already beaten that this year with 0.97″ so far this month.

Right now, I’m still going with dry conditions through at least next Monday.  Rob talked about “wish-casting” in his earlier blog.  I threw in the 20% for Tuesday to add color to the 8 Day Forecast.  I agree with Rob, that if the ridge breaks down somewhat, we could have a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) or in plain terms, a cluster of thunderstorms, that could break away from the main pattern and head southeast.  They could either hold on and bring us some action, or the remnant energy from the dissipating MCS could stir up some local storms with the daytime heating.  So far over the last week, any MCS that has looked even remotely hopeful has hit the ridge and died out before reaching Shreveport.  One late last week made it to Lufkin before fizzling, but even if that one would have held on, it would have missed us to the west.  I’ll keep my eyes on areas Northwest for anything to head our way.

Fortunately the high is preventing any tropical weather to develop.  Storm track will keep everything out of the Gulf for now.  Anything that might develop would probably be along the East Coast where the current storm track spills fronts and storms off the Mid-Atlantic coast and into the Gulf Stream region in the Atlantic.  There was a cluster of storms near the coast of Honduras this morning, but upper level conditions aren’t favorable for anything to develop.  Even if it were, the ridge over the Gulf would keep it well south of us.  -Baker