KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

After a brief and albeit small respite from the heat and humidity it looks to get hotter again.  This afternoon’s longer range models are indicating the upper level ridge of high pressure may try to rebuild and expand back across the region into next week allowing for highs to push back into the upper 90s and quite possibly lower 100s especially across Central Louisiana and northern parishes of Acadiana.  Over the last few days we have been advertising slight rain chances for Friday into the weekend and into early next week, but the ridge of high pressure may expand deflecting most activity away from us…so I went with lower rain chances for this weekend.  And if the ridge strengthens the way the models are indicating today triple digit heat will probably return to the daily forecasts.  In fact, while writing this entry the GFS Model is already going with 100 degrees for the high tomorrow/Wednesday.   Other than a few isolated storms this weekend into early next week the next significant chance of precipitation may not come until the 9th or 10th of July..and that may be stretching it if the ridge expands per the model advertisement today.  Needless to say the drought will likely worsen with yesterday’s rains just buying back a few days from what appears to be more inevitable.

Literally!  When the rain came in, cool breezes ahead of the storms dropped the temperatures from a record setting 101, back into the 70s across Acadiana.  But not just some cool breezes, some pretty gusty winds came in with those storms.  Rob indicating that Acadiana Regional Airport clocked a wind gust over 60mph between 5 and 5:30 yesterday afternoon.  I believe it!  I was driving along LA88 near Coteau at 5:15.  The rain was torrential, and when the wind kicked in, I had about 10 feet of visibility!  When I passed ARA about 5 minutes before, I could tell the wind was going to be strong as I could see the downdrafts pushing forward out of the storm, and the drought dust was lifting high prior to the rain settling it down.  Once the storms pushed away, the temperatures settled into the 70s overnight, and for the first time in recent memory the heat index this morning was under 80 degrees!  And my air conditioner kicked off while I was getting ready dark and early this morning.  Almost as pleasant of a feeling as the cold breeze!

Fortunately a large part of the region got a healthy dose of rainfall.  Today will dry out again as the trough settles into the Gulf and dissipates.  Expect dry and hot weather for Wednesday and Thursday too. 

As we move toward the weekend, including the 4th of July holiday.  The ridge will break down again as another trough will drop down from the Ohio Valley.  This should allow a few more afternoon storms to develop Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  Hopefully this will drop our high temperatures closer to normal.  But still steer clear of fireworks and BBQ’s.

Tropics remain quiet!  -Baker

As Dave indicated in our previous weather blog entry, finally some storms ending 25 days of no rain and in Lafayette.  A frontal trough finally busted through the area this afternoon allowing for a very healthy scattering of showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon.  Many areas saw better than one half an inch of rainfall that was quickly absorbed into the ground.  A few isolated spots not only saw a couple of inches of rain (in about 30-45 minutes) but there were some isolated reports of damaging winds in northern Vermilion and northwestern Iberia Parishes.  Winds gusts were clocked at 62mph at Acadiana Regional Airport at 5:25pm this afternoon.  Activity was weakening significantly as of 700pm this evening and will continue to dissipate deeper into the evening hours.  Unfortunately it looks like drier air will try to filter into the region for tomorrow with our rain chances going down as well.  Fortunately though it shouldn’t be quite as hot tomorrow with highs closer to the mid-upper 90s.  In fact, today Lafayette and New Iberia set more records for heat with a high of 101 in Lafayette toppling another dust bowl record of 100 set in 1930…it was 100 degrees this afternoon in New Iberia.  That makes 12 straight days of 97-102 degree heat.   Interestingly enough, I am working on the statistics for this June and it looks like it will be in the top 5 of hottest on record…more on that in the days to come.  Relative hot and dry conditions will continue Tuesday through Thursday with at best slight rain chances and highs in the mid-upper 90s.  Friday into the weekend should bring better sea-breeze induced scattered showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon hours so at least we shouldn’t be quite as hot with highs pushing closer to the low-mid 90s.  Afternoon rain chances should stay with us into early next week but the longer range projections are indicating the hot high pressure ridge will become re-established which may very well bring back triple digit highs later next week…we’ll see.  In the near term, a little break today and a few in the next week so enjoy…it may not stay for very long.  Rob

Still no measurable precipitation at the Lafayette Regional Airport, our official recording site here in Lafayette.  Although we’ve see a few stray showers pop up over the past few days, none have reached the official station…nor have they reached TV3.  This makes 25 straight days with no rainfall, and today is day 26!  Another record was set on Sunday as the mercury soared to 99 degrees, breaking the old record of 98 set back in 1954. 

Today there is a bit of hope for some rain here at home!  A stationary front is draped across central Louisiana this morning and should drift to about the I-10 corridor by this afternoon.  Already this morning during the pre-dawn hours a thunderstorm developed over Allen Parish and drifted southwestward before dissipating near Lake Charles.  If the air mass is unstable enough to support a storm with no daytime heating, imagine what we could see later today with a front in place to act as the triggering mechanism.  Today I’m going with a 40% chance for rain, which is the highest rain chance I’ve had in my forecast all month long.  Hopefully our luck will improve today, because tomorrow and Wednesday look to much drier once again.

The tropical wave that was producing showers and storms over the western Caribbean this weekend, has moved over the Yucatan and has fallen apart.  Still some showers and thunderstorms persist near that area, but the trough is over land, and no development is expected there.  There is also a flare up of storms near the Bahamas.  These are firing up along a stationary boundary that has pushed off the east coast.  No development is expected, but it will be monitored for the next day or so.  There is also an upper level low pressure area over the mid Atlantic, but remember…tropical systems are low pressure at the surface, not high up in the atmosphere.  Water temperatures where tropical systems normally develop during the early part of July are just about normal.  There are a couple of hot spots (over 88 degrees) near Puerto Rico, around Key West, and in the shallow waters of the continental shelf off of the Louisiana coastline.  Don’t worry, that’s not anything unusual..nor will it have any impact on the future forecast for the rest of the season.  Good luck with the rain!!!  -Baker

New NOAA Satellite Reaches Orbit

Satellite features enhanced severe weather and solar storm detection capabilities

June 27, 2009

The new satellite, GOES-14, lifted off at 6:51 p.m. (EDT) from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida, and separated from the launch vehicle at 11:12 p.m (EDT). At the same time, the first signal was captured at the Air Force Tracking Station, Diego Garcia, located in the Indian Ocean.

“Reliable satellite coverage helps us see severe weather as it develops,” said Mary E. Kicza, assistant administrator for NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service. “With more than a thousand tornadoes touching down in the United States each year, and hurricanes a serious risk to residents along the Gulf and East coastlines, it’s critical GOES-14 is in orbit and ready when needed.”
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GOES-14 is the second spacecraft in the GOES-N/O/P series and features significant improvements in the instruments that capture high-resolution pictures of weather patterns and atmospheric measurements.

“The imagery and data we get from GOES is key to our ability to continuously monitor and diagnose weather in the tropics,” said Bill Read, director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. “Continued improvements in the type and quality of GOES data will contribute to improvements in tropical cyclone forecasts”.

GOES-14 also provides expanded measurements for space and solar environment monitoring, including the Solar X-Ray Imager. The SXI is improving forecasts and warnings for solar disturbances, protecting billions of dollars of commercial and government assets in space and on the ground and lessening the effect of power surges for the satellite-based electronics and communications industry

NOAA has two operational GOES satellites hovering 22,300 miles above the equator – GOES-12, in the east, and GOES-11, in the west – each provide continuous observations of environmental conditions of North, Central and South America and surrounding oceans. While these two are operational, another GOES satellite, GOES-13, is in orbital storage and can be activated if one of the other satellites experiences trouble. These satellites supply the data critical for fast, accurate weather forecasts and warnings, detecting solar storm activity and relaying distress signals from emergency beacons.

Once it reaches geostationary orbit, GOES-14 will undergo a series of tests for approximately six months before completing its “check-out” phase. After check out, GOES-14 will be placed into orbital storage mode.

NOAA manages the operational environmental satellite program and establishes requirements, provides all funding and distributes environmental satellite data for the United States. NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., procures and manages the development and launch of the satellites for NOAA on a cost reimbursable basis.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

source: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090626_goes14.html

Some much welcomed scattered rain developed late in the afternoon today but it still was not enough to keep highs from reaching over 100.  Morning storms offshore produced a waterspout spotted south of Marsh Island. Some great pictures of the spout were sent by a few people. The storms slowly pushed inland through the day and were slow to move because there’s not much to steer them. Winds are still light are variable and when rain develops, it quite often sits over the same place until it rains itself out. That area under the rain may get 2 inches or more while places nearby get nothing. The atmospheric setup stays with us through the weekend but a front is expected to push through Monday reinforcing dry air and high pressure next week.

We’re looking closely at this low that formed today in the Caribbean and the National Hurricane Center gives the low a 30-50% chance of forming. Right now it’s just expected to give heavy rain to Jamaica and northern Central America. We’ll have to wait and see what it does after that. If it holds together over the next few days, Hurricane Hunters may be dispatched to investigate the low. Computer models don’t strengthen the low much and takes it over to Florida. We shouldn’t be worried about it but just keeping our eyes open into next week.

Close to home, it just stays hot with few rain chances through next weekend.

Another zero in the rain column here in Lafayette.  Record high temperatures across the region for a third straight day.  Here in Lafayette the official high Thursday was 100 degrees, a tie for the record also set in 1930.  New Iberia sets a record again with a high of 101, breaking the old record of 98 set back in 2005.  Today the record in Lafayette should be safe, at least I hope so…104 again set back in 1930.  New Iberia will probably at least tie the record for a 4th straight day.  The record there is 98 again.  We did see a couple of showers develop during the early evening hours yesterday, with a heavy downpour over lower parts of St. Mary Parish, and another shower developing over central Vermilion Parish.  This morning we are seeing some showers and storms on the radar, but everything is offshore, and sitting still.  These are associated with a weak trough left over from an old front that is dissipating.  There should be enough weakeness there to warrant a 20% chance for today, but mainly for the immediate coastline where pop up showers have been in place for the last couple of days.  Therefore if you’ve stayed dry, you probably will again today and for the weekend.  Early next week a front will try to move toward the Gulf Coast, and that will allow me to throw in another couple of 20 percenters for Monday and Tuesday.  Unfortunately that will be the best I can do, as models are pointing at more dry weather here in Acadiana for the next week or so.

There is a bit of disturbed weather in the Caribbean this morning.  A cluster of storms associated with a tropical wave is located between Jamaica and Central America.  Pressures have remained steady, and the thunderstorm activity continues to develop.  Wind shear values are fairly low in the vicinity, and are forecast to stay low over the weekend.  Right now the National Hurricane Center shows a low 30% chance for development over the next 24 hours.  This area will be monitored over the weekend.  Normally the end of June and early July are quiet times in the tropics, but  the western Caribbean is an area that seems to develop most of the rare systems during this part of the season.  Have a great weekend!  -Baker

The high heat continued today with the high of 100 in Lafayette tying the record set back in 1930 while New Iberia reached the highest on record on this date of 101.  At least dew points were slightly lower this afternoon keeping heat indices in the 104-108 range.  Tomorrow into the weekend will bring high temperatures down a degree or two as the gradient surface wind should allow for a weak afternoon sea-breeze that should limit our highs, especially along and south of the I-10 corridor.  Highs may still top out near or slightly above 100 across northern portions of Acadiana over the next few days but will likely be closer to the upper 90s for most of us.  Rain chances will likely stay no better than 5% through Sunday.  The humidity will likely increase into the weekend offsetting any relief from the actual temperatures so it looks like heat indices will stay in the 105-108 degree range through Sunday.  A frontal trough may approach Monday/Tuesday of next week possible sparking off a few storms but right now anything higher than 20% coverage would be more than optimistic.  Highs will be closer to the mid 90s next week while overnight lows drop a little into the mid-70s…perhaps lower 70s…so a little relief at night and with respect to humidity is possible.  But it looks like the ridge of high pressure will remain rather formidable across the area into the second week of July providing little in the way of anything more than an isolated shower or two.  So the drought likely to worsen…in fact the Drought Monitor has upped much of the area into a “Moderate Drought”…next stop “Severe Drought” which I think is the direction we’re heading in unless we start to see more active frontal boundaries by mid-July (not likely) or some tropical moisture surges (a little more likely as we head toward August).  I’ll be off Friday so have a good weekend.  Rob

Today was the hottest day in nearly 9 years!  102 degrees was the official high in New Iberia and Lafayette today smashing the old records of 97 and 99 degrees respectively.  In fact, the record of 99 in Lafayette was set back in the dust bowl year of 1930…hopefully we are not heading into that kind of a drought, but we have been running about 10-12 inches below normal rainfall-wise over the last two-three months…and pushing well into moderate drought territory.  The key today for finally surpassing and staying above the 100 degree mark has been the northerly surface wind that finally developed and was strong enough to stave off the sea breeze.  Most of us hit 100 degrees between 130-230pm this afternoon with the readings above 100 through the entire afternoon; the reading at 600pm was still at 101 degrees in Lafayette and New Iberia!   Hopefully you have been tracking my hourly updates at twitter.com…another nice breaking-weather disseminating tool, and don’t forget to subscribe to KATC’s newsfeed too.  Heat indices today reached 108-112 area-wide so we have gotten into dangerous territory for outdoor activity.  The NWS in Lake Charles issued a heat advisory today and may do so again tomorrow…depending on what our dew points do.

There have been some healthy thunderstorms across the area late this afternoon and evening but activity has been isolated in nature, but there have been some lucky folks especially across St Mary Parish.  Unfortunately, the heat will stay with us through the end of the week but with more of a north to northeast flow we should see slightly lower dew points.  Rain chances will likely stay near 10% or less through the weekend.  Highs tomorrow will approach 100 again and more than likely the upper 90s for Friday.  The surface flow should begin to shift out of a more southerly direction as we head into the weekend and next week which should in-turn limit our highs closer to the mid-90s…but upper 90s will persist in Acadiana’s northern parishes.  Next week a northwest flow aloft will develop as the upper ridge flattens which should in turn yield a slightly better chance of scattered late afternoon storms by mid-late next week while highs slowly return to the low-mid 90s…we hope…remember, as I have mentioned in previous entries, heat waves and droughts feed off of themselves so breaks in the pattern sometimes don’t materialize as nicely and as timely as the models indicate with these changes becoming just another “mirage”.  We will likely have to wait on the tropics for any significant relief from the on-going drought, but at least there should be some afternoon storms next week.  Rob