The National Hurricane Center has increased the possibility of the low out in the Gulf becoming a tropical depression before moving inland. The low is still expected to move into the Alabama coast and whether it turns tropical or not, heavy rain and gusty winds are expected. What makes the low tropical? If the storms and maximum wind become more concentrated near the center of low pressure and the core of the low warms from the water, it is a tropical low. If it is elongated and the winds are strong due to a pressure gradient and the core of the low has cool tempertaures, it’s non tropical. If it stays over warm water long enough it could warm and contract becoming tropical. There has been an increase in storms near the center so Hurricane Hunters may fly into the storm by noon Saturday to take some measurements of the storm. If they find sufficient winds and pressure they will upgrade the storm and start issuing warnings. Water temperatures need to be at least 80 degrees for the low to become tropical and it’s about 76 degrees now.
Through the weekend we can expect bands of rain, enhanced by daytime heating off and on both Saturday and Sunday. By Memorial Day the low will be north of us but an unstable atmosphere and sufficient moisture will still give us good chances of rain. If you plan to travel east, expect a wet weekend
Kari