KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

After an absolutely gorgeous day our weather will begin to head into an unsettled pattern.  Tonight will be fair and not as cool with lows in the mid-upper 50s.  There should be enough of a breeze tonight to mitigate any fog formation.  Tomorrow will likely bring a sun and cloud mix with windy conditions during the afternoon.  Southerly winds near 18-25mph will be likely with a few gusts over 30mph possible Thursday afternoon.  Rain chances will be slight but could pick-up tomorrow night.  The Storm Prediction Center does have us hatched in for a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow evening into early Friday, but this risk is highly conditional as the atmosphere will be rather capped keeping most storms from forming…if they do get cooking then we could have some healthy storms so we’ll keep an eye on this system just in case.   The possibility of severe weather Thursday will increase farther to the north across the Arklatex into the northern part of the state and Arkansas.  It appears that there will be a much greater risk of severe weather in Acadiana by late Sunday…more on this below.  The frontal boundary associated with this system will become nearly stationary across the area Friday through Saturday with some models indicating a slight push southward by Saturday morning.  The bottom line is that we’ll probably see a fair bit of cloudiness with the chance scattered showers and a few storms possible for both days with highs in the lower 80s Friday and perhaps mid-upper 70s Saturday.   Sunday’s weather-maker is still looking nasty but perhaps a little delayed into Sunday evening and/or night.  Nonetheless I am still going with a good chance of showers and storms developing for the latter part of the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours.  The strong dynamics for severe weather and heavy storms will be Sunday night with all modes of severe weather possible, meaning there will be a tornado, damaging wind and hail threat.

Our temperatures will warm back into the mid-70s tomorrow with warm conditions likely into the weekend, but it could get rather stormy for Easter.  In the near term, clear and cool conditions will prevail this evening with lows by morning in the low-mid 40s.  A few patches of ground fog will be possible mainly in open fields and near water by morning but it shouldn’t be a major concern.  Tomorrow will bring lots of sunshine and warmer conditions while some high clouds could begin to invade by late in the day.  Breezy southwest winds will kick in tomorrow afternoon setting up for a much milder Wednesday evening.  The next storm system, now on the West Coast, will allow for development of low pressure in the nation’s mid-section Thursday which in turn could bring the chance of scattered showers and some thunderstorms to Acadiana for late Thursday afternoon and mostly likely Thursday night.  Any risk of severe weather with this system should stay well to our north and west, but we’ll monitor this one just in case.  The next weather-maker could bring some very healthy storms to the area for Easter Sunday, perhaps during the latter part of the afternoon/evening.  Computer models are indicating fairly strong dynamics including a jet-stream orientation and a vorticity  pattern conducive to heavy rains and a significant tornado event from Texas into Arkansas and northern Louisiana.  (Vorticity is a turning tendency of the atmosphere).  The latest run this evening is a little slower and farther to the north with best dynamics so the storms could come later in the day into Sunday night.  We’ll be talking more about this system in the days to come.  In between weather systems, Friday and Saturday should be partly to mostly cloudy and warm with slight rain chances and highs in the lower 80s.

A large cold dome of high pressure continues to settle into the area with temperatures heading for the upper 30s by morning.  A Freeze Warning is in effect for Central Louisiana but most of us should stay well above freezing and a frost will be difficult to generate as winds will likely stay breezy overnight while dew points stay quite low.  Nonetheless, you may want to cover some of your tender vegetation tonight just in case!  Lows will range from the mid-30s across northern portions of Acadiana into the upper 30s along the I-10 parishes, and near 40 to lower 40s along the coast.  Wind chills incidentally could be in the upper 20s to lower 30s by morning so bundle up early!  Lots of sunshine will warm us back into the low-mid 60s tomorrow afternoon but it will feel markedly milder because the winds will be settling down.  Tomorrow night will see another cold one with lows dipping into the lower-mid-40s but we should be back into the 70s Wednesday under mostly sunny skies.  The next weather system and frontal boundary will approach late Thursday yielding chances of scattered showers and a few storms.  There may be a slight risk of strong storms with this system, but it should be weakening as it loses upper-level support by the time it gets here.  The surface front will likely get hung-up somewhere close to Acadiana Thursday night which now translates to continuing rain chances for Friday, perhaps Saturday.  As I alluded to last week, a stronger weather system could arrive for late Easter Sunday with a good chance of some healthy storms late in the day…more on this later in future postings.  Temperatures will be back into the spring swing with highs staying in the upper 70s to lower 80s late this week, into the weekend, and more than likely through much of next week.

We’ve enjoyed warm temperatures the past couple of days but cool air out west is making it’s way to Acadiana.  Saturday night’s low of 64 degrees will be the high temperature Monday after the front passes. I’m expecting the front early Sunday afternoon with only a slight chance of rain. We have plenty of moisture in place but there is an inversion or a warm layer of air aloft that’s going to keep widespread storms from forming.

Even though we won’t have a lot of storms, the front is very strong, bringing blizzard conditions to the southern plain states and gusty winds with the quick moving system. The National Weather Service in Lake Charles pointed out that our record low temperature for Tuesday morning may be tied or broken if lows dip below 36. That’s what we are expecting right now so winter will briefly make a comeback. Wednesday we’ll see a quick warm-up as high pressure slides east and the return flow develops, ushering in southerly winds and warmer air. The next front is expected on Thursday with slightly higher rain chances.

Enjoy your weekend!

Once again Acadiana was pounded with severe storms, high winds and hail.  But as quickly as the storms moved in they moved out with sunny skies as expected this afternoon.  Wind gusts of 50-60mph in the storms were reported late this morning with gusts up to 75mph indicated in the New Iberia area.  A meso-scale high pressure system followed the meso-convective complex (I know I used “meso” twice in a sentence) bringing sunny and warm conditions to Acadiana this afternoon.  Gusty westerly winds will increase during the evening hours as cooler subsident air moves in.  Winds may gust higher than 30mph during this evening but should die down overnight toward daybreak.  Temperatures will likely drop into the upper 40s by morning but unabated sunshine, lighter more variable winds, and warmer afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s will make it a gorgeous day!  Yet another storm system developing in the Plains this weekend will bring gusty southerly winds and warmer conditions to the area Saturday with highs shooting back into the upper 70s.  The next front with this storm system will get here by Sunday, but upper support and limited moisture are forcing us to keep the rain chances relatively low Saturday night into Sunday.  Based on the models there shouldn’t be much of a severe weather threat here, but our recent trends have been indicating otherwise (5 severe weather events in the last 8 days) so we’ll watch future model runs closely.  Markedly cooler weather will race in Sunday night with lows likey to drop into the low-mid 40s for early next week.  The next weather-maker looks to yield another round of active storms for next Thursday…and in the longer range, the one that follows is looking even stronger and that may get here around Easter Sunday!

The latest in the parade of storms rolling out of the Rockies will likely be a severe weather-maker mainly north and east of Acadiana.  Showers and storms will once again initiate to our north and west tomorrow morning with a brief opportunity for strong to severe storms during the latter part of our morning into the early afternoon hours.  Like Tuesday’s weather event, we are not expecting everyone to get wet nor everyone to see healthy storms, but the risk of storms and severe weather will improve markedly further northward with the northern portions of Acadiana the best bet for seeing some action.  I wouldn’t be surprised if a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch will be posted for portions of Acadiana tomorrow morning into the early afternoon hours.  As the surface low in the Plains moves northeastward the threat of severe weather will increase into Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee with a moderate risk of nasty storms and perhaps strong tornadoes per the Storm Prediction Center.  Stay with KATC for the latest as it looks like Dave Baker will have a busy shift Thursday.  Interestingly enough skies will probably clear during the afternoon with gusty west winds shifting from the south-southwest .  This could lead to temperatures pushing into the upper 70s to lower 80s late tomorrow afternoon before cooler drier air spills back into the region tomorrow night.  Friday looks sunny and seasonably cool (highs in the lower 70s) with a warm-up into the upper 70s to lower 80s this weekend.  The next weather-maker will once again try to develop near us or just to the east Sunday.  Right now I have a 30% chance in the forecast for Sunday but that will probably change.  Early next week looks nice and cool again with the next weather system to follow with rain/storm chances returning by next Thursday.