After a stormy Friday/Saturday the weather has certainly straightened out nicely! Lots of sunshine will stay in the forecast over the next several days with breezy conditions re-appearing Thursday and Friday and likely staying with us through the weekend. In addition, southerly winds off of the Gulf will usher in more lower level humidity which will translate into milder nights, some late night and early morning cloudiness, and partly cloudy skies for the afternoon hours Friday through Sunday. Rain chances will be no higher than 10% Friday through Sunday but we can’t completely rule out an isolated sprinkle anytime from Friday through Monday…but this won’t be a deal-breaker for Festival International. Get out and enjoy the festivities, but remember, no matter what your skin type you can get a nasty burn with our late April sun so don’t forget the sunblock and get a nice brimmed-hat for Festival.
As I mentioned last week, I was in the Bahamas for the Weather Conference and enjoyed many excellent talks from the world-wide experts on tropical weather and mitigation…do check out the video clips on the Bahamas site. You’ll find some very interesting information and some lively presentations. I interviewed and spent lunch with Dr. Chris Landsea with the National Hurricane Center Friday; he believes like many of us in the broadcast meteorological community, that although our climate has warmed over the last century, there is no detectable relation to any increase in tropical cyclone activity or intensity due to global warming, which contradicts what Al Gore and many other suppose: that big storms in recent years like Rita,Katrina, Gustav and Ike etc. are a result of global warming. There is no solid evidence that supports this supposition. I would be willing to bet however, that there will still be many press releases coming in the next couple of months from special interest groups and “other” researchers that claim global climate change is impacting hurricane intensity and frequency. Dr. Landsea also indicates that if there is any effect on tropical storms there may be a 2% increase in intensity by the end of this century. So the question is can one detect the damage difference from 150mph winds to 153mph winds? The answer is no, and that yearly variability of storms due to other natural causes and better observing of recent storms are the most likely reasons for some of the big storms the Atlantic has seen over the last few years. Dr. Landsea is not alone in his assessment (see Drs. Klotzbach, Gray and others) and that consensus at this conference pointed to that it is more important to concentrate on the hurricane threat each and every year and what we can do to mitigate the effects of the inevitable storms to come.