KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Per my last entry, rain totals Tuesday night through Friday will probably be several inches.  Our in-house FutureCast model has been going for anywhere from 2-4′ with the 18z run (pictured) the wettest so far for the day.  We’ll probably see about an inch tomorrow night, another couple of inches by Thursday morning and then several more inches possible late Friday into Saturday.  The late model runs have been a little slower with the last upper impulse so it could be a rather stormy Saturday..with a couple of stormy nights and maybe a day before then.  More tomorrow.  Rob

On and off showers and storms will be in the forecast for Acadiana beginning Tuesday night and not ending until late Saturday.  A series of storm systems in the Plains will produce windy conditions across the area Tuesday with a frontal boundary and healthy disturbances producing several rounds of showers and storms beginning after midnight Tuesday night.  While organized severe weather is not expected with the first round of storms tomorrow night/early Wednesday there will be the opportunity for a few healthy cells that we may have to keep our eyes on.  The next disturbance will likely approach late Wednesday into early Thursday will have slightly better wind dynamics, meaning at least the chance of heavier rains and perhaps a slightly better chance of severe weather.  The last in in the series of healthy disturbances will likely arrive either late Friday, Friday night and/or into early Saturday.  The Storm Prediction Center delineates much the same, but the greatest risk of active severe weather should stay well to our north in the near term while the chance of storms producing pockets of wind damage, hail and possibly isolated tornadoes will increase with the last disturbance.  In between, and active jet-stream with embedded smaller disturbances will keep the rain chances quite elevated for Acadiana until drier, more stable air gets her by Saturday night.  Now is also a good time to be prepared for our tardy severe weather season by downloading the “Desktop Weather Lab” on your PC.  In fact you can configure this utility to email you severe weather bulletins, text them to your phone,  and receive updates straight from the KATC Weather Lab, even before severe weather bulletins are initiated by the National Weather Service.  So be ready for windy and warm conditions with a few widely scattered showers tomorrow, a healthy round of storms pre-dawn hours Wednesday, lingering showers and storms Wednesday afternoon, and a stronger round of showers and storms Wednesday night into pre-dawn hours Thursday.  Lingering showers and storms will be possible Thursday into Friday and look out for the last round of stronger storms Friday night/early Saturday.  Obviously timing and intensity issues remain but if we are lucky the worst weather will come at night…which would make it least intrusive on our schedules (unless you’re a meteorologist).  Finally rain totals through Saturday could be quite healthy and could exceed 5 inches!  I would expect and inch or two possible with the first round of storms, possibly a two to three inches between Wednesday and Thursday and then couple of more Friday through Saturday.  I’ll post our in-house model precipitation estimates later this evening.   So check back with KATC and katc.com for the latest…Rob

Sunday was breezy but as an area of low pressure in the Mid-west gets closer, winds will continue to increase. Monday we can expect winds at about 15-20 mph with higher gusts. High pressure off to our east is still the dominant weather feature for us but that will change on Tuesday. The cold front will move through late Tuesday into Wednesday then stall keeping rain in the forecast. The Storm Prediction Center has our area and just off to the north hatched in for a possible severe weather event. Looking at the computer models that seems in line with the front nearby, forcing the air to rise, and plenty of moisture and shear. There will also be some upper level support with disturbances moving through at the same time. We’ll take the rain but hopefully a severe weather event doesn’t pan out. The greatest threat may be damaging winds, hail, and lightning. That front and the upper level troughs are still on schedule to get out of here for the weekend, leaving us with sunny skies and comfortable temperatures.

Enjoy your week!

The weather was perfect for the Komen Race for the Cure as an estimated 9,400 people supported the cause in Lafayette Saturday morning. Sunny skies prevailed with some cirrus clouds moving through. On satellite imagery it just looks cloudy but the cirrus was thin enough to still make it a pleasant day. Winds will begin to pick up Sunday because of a tighter  pressure gradient. Clouds are expected to thicken and lower over the next few days as a front approaches from the north. The front will stall and give us a chance of rain everyday after Tuesday until it finally passes on about Saturday. We’re still hoping to get enough showers to put a dent in the drought which is still at a defict of about 6.75 inches.

Enjoy your weekend!

We remain on track for a gorgeous weekend with lots of sunshine and pleasant afternoon breezes.  Some high level cirrus clouds will punctuate the skies by late Saturday afternoon with mix of some lower cumulus clouds rolling in from the east for Sunday.  Changes are on the way for next week as deepening low pressure in the Plains will engender windy conditions across the area for early next week.  A few isolated showers may be possible Monday with better chance of showers and storms developing by late Tuesday into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning as upper level conditions become more favorable for active weather.  Right now it appears that a significant severe weather threat should stay well north of the area but some healthy storms will be possible during the Tuesday night/early Wednesday time frame.  The upper pattern stays unsettled later next week with quite warm and humid conditions likely late next week with still the chance of showers into the early part of next weekend.  The longer range projections do show unsettled conditions for the rest of the month with possible a nice chill for April 1st…no fooling here!  More on that next week…meanwhile enjoy the weekend and wear a hat and use the sunblock!

Why mess with such a lovely weather pattern?  The ongoing forecast looks good with the slight cool down and freshening N/NE breezes on tap for Friday.  The weekend still looks fantastic!  The forecast for next week appears to be evolving into a wetter pattern with showers and storms becoming a pretty good bet for mid-week.  In addition, it now appears that there may be another good soaking possible with this pattern…the longer range models are beginning to agree so tomorrow we’ll have a better feel for the wetness for next week.  In the near term-ENJOY…and don’t forget to wear the sunblock!

After the morning stratus burned off it was a lovely afternoon with highs topping-out in the mid-70s.  Expect more the same tomorrow with the stratiform clouds taking shape in the form of radiative fog later tonight.  So look for cooler conditions overnight with lows in the lower 50s but with the residual soil moisture and light winds ground fog will begin to develop first in open fields after 10pm with patchy dense stuff forming after midnight.  Areas of dense fog will likely form by daybreak with any fog likely to burn-off quickly by 900am.  Mostly sunny conditions will allow temperatures to push into the upper 70s for Wednesday afternoon.  Acadiana could see a repeat of the late night/early morning fog performance for Thursday with mostly  sunny and warm conditions likely for the afternoon.  A weak cool front will drop through the area by Friday morning ushering a few clouds and slightly cooler conditions for Friday afternoon.  There shouldn’t be enough moisture nor lift to generate any significant shower activity with this front.  This weekend should bring lots of sunshine with some high clouds Saturday and fair to partly cloudy skies Sunday.  Highs will be back into the mid-70s Saturday (after dropping into the lower 70s Friday) and will rise into the upper 70s for Sunday.  Breezy conditions, partly to mostly cloudy skies and  highs near 80 area expected early next week.  In addition, chances of scattered showers may improve for Tuesday into Wednesday but at this time the pattern next week does not appear overly wet for us.

After a gloomy and wet weekend we are looking forward to lots of sunshine and warmer temperatures for the rest of this week.  This weekend brought 2-3 inches of rain area-wide with rain rates just right for deep soil percolation.  This means that the rains just didn’t run-off into the ditches…they fell at an optimal rate for getting the moisture deep into the ground.  This moisture will have to serve us for a couple of weeks as I do not see another significant rain event through the end of this month.  Meanwhile in the near term, look for skies to slowly clear overnight but with the residual ground moisture fog could become an issue, especially where skies clear the earliest (to the west).  And for some folks to the west you may be able to see the Space Station fly-by at 7:46pm in the west-northwestern sky…but lingering clouds will likely keep most of us from seeing it.  In addition, the shuttle will follow lower in the sky according to NASA, at 8:08pm, but the clouds will likely prohibit a descent view unless you live near Jennings on westward.  Temperatures tonight will drop into the low-mid 50s by morning.  Any fog will lift by 900-1000am tomorrow with mostly sunny and warmer conditions likely for the afternoon.  Wednesday may bring more of the same with some early fog to be followed by sunny and spring-like conditions for the afternoon.  Fair to partly cloudy skies are expected for the rest of the week into the weekend with highs staying in the 70s, in spite of a rather weak front arriving for the first official day of spring on Friday.  The Spring Equinox will occur at 6:44am Friday meaning the sun will be directly over the equator at that time and that our daylight hours will be expanding beyond 12 hours per day.  Enjoy! Rob

As we get ready to head back to work, the rain is finally pushing out. Through the whole weekend with the front wagging back and forth over us, we’ve gotten about an inch and a half of rain in Lafayette with possibly some heavier amounts around Acadiana. Dry air will be filtering in Monday with calm weather expected for the week. The computer models are backing off on the chance of rain for the first day of Spring so it looks like rain will stay away until about the end of the month.

Enjoy your week!

There was a lot going on around Acadiana for the weekend but the rain put a damper on it all. The Blarney Blast continued in the rain on Saturday. We do need the rain with our 7.6 inch rainfall decifit. How have we done so far? Well, we got nearly an inch in Lafayette since the rain began. Not so bad considering we expect to get a little more and we aren’t trying to knock out the drought all at once. Sunday the front slowly moves east but rain will linger through the day. The best chances look to be early in the morning and then again in the evening, taking a break during times in the afternoon. It looks like we’ll be done with the showers by Monday afternoon with sunny skies for the rest of the week as drier air moves in. A peak at the first day of Spring on Friday shows another cold front approaching, though not nearly as cold, will bring a slight chance of rain into the weekend.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!