KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Most of us missed out on showers and storms today but an isolated storm pulsed briefly to severe levels across western and northern portions of Acadiana with a few reports of marble size hail.  The storms quickly lost their upper level support mid-afternoon so the severe thunderstorm watch posted through 500pm was dropped early.  Drier cooler air is moving in but the sub-tropical jet-stream will continue to scream overhead keeping lots of high clouds in the area through Wednesday.  Temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 50s while highs tomorrow may be limited by the high cloud cover.  Nonetheless Wednesday will be pleasant with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s tomorrow afternoon.  Another dynamic quick-moving system will develop late tomorrow in the Plains states and could bring the chance of showers and storms back to the area for Thursday morning…perhaps through midday.  Once again it looks like the greatest chance of storms and possibly severe weather will stay mostly to the north of Acadiana.  If storms do get cooking close to home we’ll have to keep an eye on the northern portions of Acadiana.  Nice weather will return for Friday into the weekend with another chance of some storms early Suunday.  A better looking storm system could give us healthier rain chances and perhaps a better risk of severe weather by next Wednesday.  Rob

Rain chances with embedded heavier thunderstorms will become likely again for our Tuesday.  Another storm system rolling out of the Rockies this evening will keep the return flow going from the Gulf of Mexico through tomorrow.  Showers and storms will likely initiate along a frontal boundary during the mid-morning through the afternoon hours with the greatest risk of strong, possibly a few severe storms to our east.  Nonethless don’t be surprised if we have a severe thunderstorm watch posted for portions of the area by mid-tomorrow morning through the mid-afternoon hours.  The severe weather dynamics do not appear as robust as they did last week, but they could phase nicely during the afternoon hours mainly for areas east of Acadiana.  So keep it tuned to KATC for the latest Tuesday.  I would expect most precipitation to end by late tomorrow afternoon.  Temperatures will hold in the low-mid 60s tonight courtesy of breezy SE winds and with the cloud deck that has moved in.  Tomorrow highs could reach the mid-upper 70s before another cool-down ensues tomorrow evening.  Wednesday looks nice while yet another quick-moving storms system will develop for Thursday.  Highest rain chances and the risk of severe weather should stay to our north, however we are in an active pattern, it’s spring-time, so rain chances could go up Thursday and perhaps again with the weather system that could arrive later this weekend.

Following up on last week’s three severe weather events Wednesday, Thursday and Friday…The enclosed pictures are of hail that fell around the Reeves area Friday evening.  The hail pictures are courtesy of KPLC in Lake Charles.  Hail size rain from golfball up to at least ladies softball size!  That’s as big as it gets around here…by far.  There have been just a few times we’ve reported baseball size hail in these parts over the last 20 years.  In addition, the National Weather Service in Lake Charles has posted a great severe weather summary page from last week.   It was definitely a week of wet microbursts…and guess what?  The Storm Prediction Center has us hatched in for a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow…more to come in this evening’s posting.  Rob

Sunday’s weather was very pleasant with highs in the upper 60s with sunny skies and a light breeze. Monday will be even warmer as high pressure slides east and southerly winds return. Winds look like they’ll be on the increase because of a strenghtening low pressure off to our west. The cold front will make it here on Tuesday with plenty of moisture in place for rain. Not only that but the computer models are showing the sub-tropical jet moving right over with upper level distrubances enhacing the storms that do form. The Storm Prediction Center once again has our area highlighted for a severe weather risk.

Three cold fronts are in the 8 day forecast on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday.  But only the Tuesday front is of major concern at this time. Moisture and instablity seem to be limited with the other fronts and they should pass with little to no rain. Computer models are hinting at another cool blast by the end of next weekend. We’ll have to wait and see how that pans out.

Enjoy your week!

With three days of severe weather things have quieted down. A strong cold front pushed through bringing chilly temperatures and dry air. Temperatures on Saturday topped out at 68 degrees but that was observed early in the morning before the front. Most of the day it was about 58 degrees and we are headed for the lower 40s.

The front was strong enough to produce snow in the southern plains and a freeze warning (indicated on the map by the light blue) for southwestern Texas.  This cool air won’t last long. By Sunday evening winds will turn southeasterly as high pressure slides east and the return flow kicks in. There is another chance of rain Tuesday into Wednesday as the jet stream gets active over us once again and a front moves through. We’ll be watching this system again for the possibility of severe weather. Until then, enjoy your weekend!

Once again very strong, perhaps the strongest tornado dynamics of the week on tap for tonight…here’s what’s rolling on air…stay with KATC for the latest… TORNADO WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EVANGELINE, ST LANDRY AND AVOYELLES PARISHES THROUGH 545PM…A TORNADO WATCH is in effect for Jeff Davis, Acadia, Lafayette, St Martin, Allen, Evangeline,  St Landry and Avoyelles Parishes through 900pm…Intense/severe storms containing wind damage and isolated strong tornadoes can be expected in Western and Central Louisiana through the balance of this afternoon into the evening hours…Stay with KATC for Power Doppler 3000 Displays and further severe weather information, or go to www.katc.com…

Another very busy shift…unfortunately not much time to write.  This is what’s running on-air right now…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EVANGELINE AND ST LANDRY PARISHES…In addition, a TORNADO WATCH is in effect for all of Acadiana through 1100pm…Intense storms this evening may contain damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes…Wind damage and golfball size hail has been reported with the storms this evening…In addition, heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding problems…

We could see another round of nastiness tomorrow afternoon late into tomorrow evening…but the greatest risk of a big tornadic/severe weather event should be to our north.  Thankfuly much drier and cooler this weekend.

Been a very busy late night/morning….here’s what’s running on the air…Iberia and St Mary still under the gun at this hour……From Rob Perillo in the StormTeam3 Weather Lab…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS are in effect for IBERIA and ST MARY PARISHES until 230am…A TORNADO WATCH is in effect for portions of Acadiana through 300am…Storms containing damaging winds in excess of 60mph, hail up to one inch and isolated tornadoes will be possible…Frequent cloud to ground lightning and torrential downpours will be likely over the next couple of hours…Wind damage and power outages have been reported in Evangeline, St Landry and Acadia Parishes…A possible tornado has also produced widespread damage from Basile through Mamou earlier this evening…Damage has been reported at the Savoy Hospital in Mamou…Power lines and poles are down on Highway 13 between Eunice and Mamou and officials advise using an alternate route…Stay with KATC for additional severe weather information or go to www.katc.com…

A Tornado Watch has been issued for a good part of Central and Northern Louisiana through 100am Thursday morning.  A fairly strong squall line has been developing this afternoon across Central and Northeastern Texas with increasing jet-stream dynamics and a surface frontal boundary advancing eastward tonight.  As we have previously mentioned, the greatest threat of severe weather will be in the northern part of the state tonight but strong wind dynamics aloft will keep the storms rather intense through tomorrow morning.  Additional weather watches are possible later tonight for Acadiana so we’ll be watching this closely so keep it tuned to KATC overnight.  Tonight’s round of storms will likely be the first of three severe weather opportunities for Acadiana.  The primary mode of severe weather, if we see it tonight, would be in the form of wind damage and hail, but isolated tornadic storms may be possible.  The bulk of the strongest storms will advance to the coast by tomorrow morning and should weaken toward daybreak.  But like today’s front it will drift back  northward tomorrow afternoon.  The atmosphere is projected to be quite unstable tomorrow into tomorrow night but we could see some limited sunshine and relatively quiet conditions during the day.  Showers and storms will likely fire-up again by late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening with high rain chances persisting through tomorrow night.  There will probably be some risk of severe storms tomorrow evening with the threat look more tornadic.  Finally a strong front will push through the area by Friday night with sunshine and very warm conditions anticipated early Friday, but a squall line will likely develop just to the west of Acadiana Friday afternoon.  I am going for high rain chances but the threat of severe weather may form either over us or to the east, but the dynamics look way to juicy to go with what the models are indicating which is not much more than 40-50% for Friday.  So there may be a severe weather risk Friday with the main threat damaging winds, but hail and isolated tornadoes will still be possible.  Per previous blog entries, we will likely receive several inches of rain with very heavy, perhaps flooding rainfall, possible across the northern and eastern part of the state into Mississippi and Alabama where Flood Watches have already been posted.  Temperature-wise expect warm conditions, perhaps very warm conditions Friday with highs in the low-mid 80s, but it may seem more like winter this weekend with highs struggling for 60 Saturday and the mid-upper 60s Sunday.  Overnight lows could dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s this weekend.  Warmer conditions will return next week with another round of active weather possible by next Wednesday.  Rob

Rain chances will be increasing for Wednesday with additional rounds of showers and storms likely through Friday night.  Timing of when we will see the best rain chances remains difficult at best…dynamics should become quite favorable for showers and storms tomorrow morning as a front sags southward into the area and then begins to drift back to the north during the afternoon.

The focus for the heaviest storms and the possibility of severe weather should be confined to the central and northern part of the state through tomorrow.  The Storm Prediction Center has us hatched in for a slight risk of severe weather through the end of the week.  The main mode of any severe weather should be mostly wind damage and perhaps hail with better dynamics for the possibility of isolated tornadoes staying well north of the area tomorrow. Best guess at this time would have another hefty round of storms overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning…with greatest risk of severe weather to the north and northeast of Acadiana.

The last and probably the most dynamic system, will approach by late Friday into Friday night which could bring a greater risk of severe weather and perhaps isolated tornadoes to the area Friday night.

The bottom line is that I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a few severe weather watches between now and the end of the week.  Rainfall totals through Friday night are still expected to be in the 2-4 inch range with isolated areas possibly picking up twice that, especially in northern portions of Acadiana.

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts are quite robust from Central Louisiana east-northeastward through Alabama with some are quite possibly picking up more than 6 inches over a 3-4 day period.  Drier and cooler weather should arrive by Saturday afternoon with sunny and pleasant conditions likely for Sunday into early next week.