We are not getting any love from Mother Nature on this Valentine’s Day. We started out with strong storms early in the morning as a front pushed through. There were wind damage reports in northern St. Landry parish between 2:30 and 3:00 am. Elsewhere in Acadiana, heavy rain and occasional lightning moved through. Skies stayed cloudy through the day with off and on showers. And just in time for the Carnival en Rio Parade, the rain began again.
Expect about an 1-1.5″ of rain when all is said and done Sunday afternoon as the upper level disturbance moves away. Computer models show the jet stream (a flow of upper level winds that carry our weather systems) lifting north mid week and we’ll finally get some sun. But the jet stream once again dips over the state just in time for Mardi Gras. Not good news because things could get active again and that means rain. We’ll keep an eye on the computer models to see if they hold on to this scenerio through the week. In the mean time, keep your umbrella handy.
Of course as we head into the big Mardi Gras weekends the weather pattern becomes unsettled…not the best of times to be a meteorologist! The sub-tropical jet stream will stay rather active over our area allowing for plenty of clouds and more than likely on and off rain chances for the next 4-6 days. The trick is getting the timing down on weak perturbations, or disturbances, in the jet-stream. This is the time when computer models don’t agree on timing whatsoever. But they do agree on plenty of cloud cover and keeping the prospects of precipitation with us through at least Tuesday perhaps Wednesday. Be ready for daily changes in the forecast with the bottom line-”keep the umbrella handy”. So with this preface, we’ll give the forecast a shot: tonight, expect increasing cloudiness with some patchy fog as moist Gulf air spreads northward. Tomorrow will bring mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms. The best chance of heavier storms will be mainly north and east of Acadiana for tomorrow afternoon/evening. Cloudy and mild conditions with the threat of scattered showers will continue through Friday night but should temporarily end early Saturday. Mostly cloudy skies will stay with us this weekend with another round of showers possibly developing for Saturday night continuing into Sunday. Drier and cooler air will try to move in Monday but another disturbance will keep the clouds and rain chances with us for Tuesday and Wednesday. It looks nice and dry for next Thursday/Friday but we could see rain chances returning for next Saturday…stay tuned for further updates!
As expected, Acadiana missed out on the severe weather this morning with a nice and sunny afternoon enjoyed by all. Clear skies and cooler temperatures in the mid-upper 40s are expected for tomorrow morning with mostly sunny and pleasant conditions expected again for tomorrow. High clouds will gradually increase throughout the day in advance of the next weather system that should bring rain chances Friday. Tomorrow night the clouds should thicken as a warm front develops and moves northward out of the Gulf. While not explicit in the current forecast, some misty drizzles and/or sea fog could develop tomorrow night and for Friday morning. On Friday there should be enough moisture and ample atmospheric destabilization to allow for scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms as the next Plains storm system gets cranking. While the next system shouldn’t be as dynamic as the last one, we should be in a more favorable area for better rain coverage and hopefully more substantial rain amounts as we do need the rain. Hopefully the showers will end in time for the 
One of this year’s active severe weather events continues to unfold across parts of Texas, Oklahoma and points to the north and east this evening as a deepening low in the Plains begins to move to the northeast. As expected plenty of clouds, windy conditions and scattered showers developed across Acadiana this afternoon. Tonight with wind will continue with scattered showers possible especially western areas of Acadiana through the morning. Within a few hours of daybreak the tail end of a squall line should be pushing through all of Acadiana but the severe dynamics should continue to weaken appreciable toward morning so we are not expecting any organized severe weather here. But with that being said, the wind dynamics with this system are quite strong with a low level jet at about 5,000ft running at 66-75mph especially over northern portions of Acadiana later tonight…so we’ll be vigilant about any activity that will approach the area by morning. Timing of the squall, or remnants thereof, should be around 4-5am western areas, 5-6am Lafayette/New Iberia, with activity clearing St Mary and St Martin Parishes by 8-9am. Skies will clearing by lunch time Wednesday with breezy and mild conditions and lots of sunshine expected for tomorrow afternoon. The active jet stream pattern will allow for the possibility of another round of showers and possibly storms Friday while this weekend should be mostly dry and a little cooler. Upper disturbances in the jet stream this weekend could bring a fair bit in the way of in and out cloud cover and rather slight rain chances, mainly for Sunday. Another vigorous system will develop by next Tuesday, and this time, we could see more in the way of dynamics…spring activity is here!
As one storm system advances through the Northern Plains this afternoon another one is taking shape across the desert southwest. This next storm system will move through the Red River region of Texas and Oklahoma by late tomorrow and bring with it another round of showers and storms with an increasing possibility of severe weather mainly well north and west of Acadiana. Winds will stay breezy overnight tonight while southerly winds increase again tomorrow back to 20-30mph with gusts to 35-40mph possible. Although our atmospheric moisture fields will be lacking, wind dynamics should become favorable for scattered showers and a few storms to develop tomorrow afternoon. Best chance of getting wet will be weatern and northern portions of Acadiana tomorrow afternoon. The storm sytem in the southwest will 
produce a deepening surface low over TX/OK tomorrow afternoon with a trailing cold front likely to produce a squall line tomorrow night. The greatest risk of severe weather whould be mainly across the ArkLaTex tomorrow evening into early Wednesday with the strongest dynamics just clipping the northern part of our state. Nonetheless, there will be some healthy showers and storms approaching Acadiana toward daybreak Wednesday but a lot of the steam will be running out on this system here as it pushes through…breezy and drier conditions will move in for midday Wednesday with sunny skies and slightly cooler temperatures to follow for Wednesday night. Lows Thursday morning may drop into the upper 40s but this system is Pacific in orgin so upper 60s to lower 70s for highs looks to be a good call for Wednesday and Thursday. As I mentioned last week, the jet stream will stay active in our neighborhood through next week with quick-moving systems impacting us with showers and perhaps some storms again by Friday and again as early as Sunday into early-mid next week.
This weekend will bring fair to partly cloudy skies, breezy southerly winds and spring-like temperatures with highs pushing into the mid-70s. Overnight lows will range in the lower 50s for Saturday morning and upper 50s for Sunday morning. The only issue this weekend could be a round of late night/early morning sea fog for Sunday and perhaps Monday mornings. Next week things will get more interesting with a series of storm systems in the Plains and an active jet stream that will be producing strong to severe storms well north and west of our area Monday and Tuesday but we could see some healthy storms here by Wednesday. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible Monday and Tuesday with a fairly strong system likely Wednesday with a possible squall line moving through Acadiana. Today’s models indicate that the greatest risk of severe weather will be mainly north of Acadiana but we’re moving into a climatological favored time of year when tornadic activity generally ramps up as we go through February so an early heads up for next week and beyond. Temperatures will top out in the mid-upper 70s through Wednesday with slight cooling behind the weather system Wednesday. An active jet stream overhead will probably bring another opportunity for rain and possibly storms for next Friday. Interestingly enough, the long-range pattern at least through the 22nd of February is certainly looking on the mild side…we’ll see if that holds through Mardi Gras. Have a great weekend!
With high pressure nearly overhead, light winds, crystal clear skies and dew points in the teens, we will likely see quite the cold night with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to near 30 by morning. This should be mostly a light freeze but temperatures should drop below freezing after 200am in many areas with a moderate to heavy frost possible by tomorrow morning. So allow a little extra time to warm-up the car tomorrow and make sure the pets and plants have a warm place to stay tonight. We are still on track for a nice warm-up into the weekend 
with spring-like conditions expected to carry into at least mid-next week. The jet stream will become a bigger player in our weather by Wednesday with a series of storm systems in the Plains states likely to bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms early next week with ultimately a good chance of storms, possibly strong to severe storms by Wednesday. Models are not in agreement a week out, as they rarely are, but I would bet on some healthy weather-makers across the lower 48 next week with an active jet stream pattern around our part of the world to continue into the following weekend.
After an active weather system brought rain and storms to Acadiana late yesterday through early this morning, drier, cooler weather is moving back into the area. Temperatures tonight should drop into the mid-30s by morning while gusty north winds early this evening also diminish by morning. Sunny skies with winds shifting around to the west-southwest should allow for a nice warm-up tomorrow afternoon with highs pushing back into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Yet another cold front, this one dry, will push through late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning will bring our temperatures down another 5 degrees for Wednesday into Wednesday night. We could see a light freeze for Thursday morning but temperatures will warm again quickly Thursday afternoon. Temperatures Friday will reach back into the upper 60s to near 70 while a deep southerly flow off of the Gulf this weekend will bring partly cloudy and spring-like conditions to the area this weekend. Highs Saturday through Monday should reach into the mid-70s. It should stay mostly dry through Sunday with just a slight chance of an isolated shower Sunday afternoon. The next weather system should bring a good chance of showers and storms Monday or Tuesday of next week.