KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Sunday turned out to be very pleasant after early morning showers with the front. Lafayette got 0.6″ of rain in the bucket while New Iberia only got 0.08″. Temperatures were quite comfortable with highs reaching 69. We can expect more days like this through the work-week but we do have some cooler temperatures on the way. Another cold front will move through Monday and it still looks to stay dry. It  looks good for all of the MLK Jr parades and celebrations. Lows will dip to 35 Monday night but it will really cool off Tuesday night as a light freeze looks very possible. Lows may get down to 28 and then begin to rebound quickly the rest of the week. The return flow sets up Thursday bringing moisture back just before the next disturbance gets here on Friday. Until then we’ll enjoy lots of sun as high pressure holds strong.

Stratocumulus clouds rolled in Friday night keeping temperatures from dipping to freezing and it warmed up nicely Saturday afternoon. A cold front is scheduled to make it here Sunday morning and give us some scattered showers. The front won’t bring much cooler temperatures but will force drier air our way once again. Highs will be above normal Monday, then the next front moves through. This one will also be weak without showers. The rest of the week will be above normal with highs reaching into the upper 60s with sunny skies.

After a frosty Friday night and early Saturday morning expect milder temperatures this weekend as southerly winds kick in tomorrow afternoon.  First, temperatures tonight will be a tricky forecast with light winds and mostly clear skies a light freeze and frosty conditions will be likely later tonight and by tomorrow morning.  Computer guidance is right at 32 degrees for morning with a light easterly winds and some clouds trying to edge into the area per the models.  But as I indicated in previous entries, it’s almost always colder than guidance the night after following an arctic surge; I would expect the clouds to hold off and the winds not be strong enough at the surface to modify our atmosphere a whole lot.  So upper 20s appear to be a good bet for tonight.  Tomorrow will bring milder conditions with highs in the mid-upper 50s with fair to partly cloudy skies.  Cloud cover will thicken late tomorrow into tomorrow night with another front and trough allowing for a few scattered showers during the early morning hours Sunday with skies likely to clear for Sunday afternoon.  Our forecast winds are indicating southwest to westerly winds after the frontal passage Sunday which could bring our temperatures well into the 60s before the colder air returns Sunday night.  Much of next week will be sunny and cool with highs in the 50s and 60s while lows stay in the chilly mid-upper 30s.  Warmer temperatures are expected Friday with a few showers possible late Friday into early next Saturday with another front.  The long range projections beyond next weekend are indicating milder and wetter weather likely late this month…stormier conditions will also be posssible…more on this next week.  In the near term, have a good weekend!

It will be a very cold one tonight with sub-freezing temperatures for 8-12 hours with northeast winds near 10-15mph bringing wind chills down into the mid-upper teens by morning.   Protect the three “P”s  tonight – pipes, plants and pets…and bundle up tomorrow morning.  See the enclosed graphics for additional freeze information and tips.  Temperatures will drop below freezing between 10oopm and 100am and stay there through 900am.  While lots of sunshine is expected tomorrow highs will be hard-pressed to reach the mid-40s.  We’re still going for a significant, possibly a hard freeze for Friday night/Saturday morning although  model data is suggesting otherwise with a Gulf return flow and clouds trying to come back in by Saturday morning.  Conventional wisdom with arctic outbreaks in Acadiana is that the second night following the arctic surge is usually calmer and that models almost always miss the opportunity of radiational cooling events.  Whether it drops much below freezing or not Friday night at least there won’t be much wind.  Temperatures may not be below freezing as long tomorrow night but 8 hours of sub-freezing readings will be possible.  Partly cloudy skies and milder temperatures in the 50s are expected Saturday with a quick moving front possibly producing a few scattered showers early Sunday.  Sunday and much of next week will be seasonably cool and dry with highs mostly in the 50s with lows in the chilly mid-upper 30s.

The coldest air of the season is on the way for Thursday night through Saturday morning.  Although the axis of the coldest air will be shunted to the east of Acadiana we’ll still see lows in the mid-upper 20s Thursday night/Friday morning and again Friday night into Saturday morning.  The front will “bridge” across the area tomorrow with lots of sunshine and increasing north to northeast winds tomorrow afternoon into the evening.  Temperatures will likely drop below freezing shortly after midnight Thursday night with a solid 10-12 hours of freezing or sub-freezing temperatures expected.  Low temperatures will be limited by the brisk winds with early Friday morning readings near 27 degrees.  In addition, there is a Hard Freeze Watch in effect for tomorrow night.   Wind chills will likely drop into the low 20s or upper teens for Friday morning so bundle up!  Fortunately it appears that this arctic blast will not be a big pipe-busting cold event for Acadiana, but protection of exposed pipes is highly recommended as there will be a limited warm-up for Friday in spite of sunny skies with highs only in the 40s.  Clear skies and calm winds will likely lead to colder temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning with another night of at least 8-10 hours of sub-freezing temperatures…lows for Saturday morning should bottom out in the mid-20s but could drop into the lower 20s if winds stay calm through early Saturday.  Milder conditions are anticipated for Saturday afternoon with lots of sunshine  and highs reaching back into the 50s.  We could see highs in the lower 60s for Sunday but another series of fronts will cool us down for early to mid-next week.  After that, it looks milder and eventually wetter as we finish off the latter part of the month.

With temperatures near normal Monday, the first cold front of the week will move through Tuesday morning. With a dry atmosphere the front won’t produce any rain but winds will pick up out of the north making wind chill an issue. If you have ever wondered how we calculate wind chill, the temperature and wind speed is put into  a long equation to figure out what it feels like to the human skin. The numbers have been plotted on a chart for easy reference.

It may be an interesting assignment for students to use the equation and plug in temperatures and wind. The chart will be put to good use this week as each front causes the wind to increase up to 20 mph through the weekend.

Computer models are cooling for Thursday night when we expect a hard freeze and at this point it looks like we’ll get down to 26 with the high on Friday only reaching into the low to mid 40s. Rain still looks like it will hold off until Saturday night or Sunday as yet another front moves through.

Inauguration Day is in the forecast now and the National Weather Service has created a neat website with past weather. Check it out!

A cold front ushered in below normal temperatures after record highs were reached Saturday afternoon. More shots of cool air are expected through the week keeping winter weather in place. With three fronts in the eight day forecast, only one is forecasted to bring rain. So we’ll stay dry all week up until about Saturday. The big weather story is the cold temperatures by the end of the work week. It still looks like the Arctic air is on the way but the latest computer model runs are not as frigid as the previous runs. Lows are still expected to dip into the mid to upper 20s by Thursday night but the core of the cold air may be just east of us. Either way, it looks like we’ll get a good freeze for at least one night. And the gusty winds will make it feel colder than the actual temperature. Of course things could still change between now and then but I would start digging the thermal underwear out of the back of the closet.

Enjoy your week!

Our cool front will be coming in a little later than anticipated so unfortunately higher rain chances will now be pushed into the morning and midday hours of our Saturday.  It means that we will be milder through early tomorrow with highs quite possibly reaching the low-mid 70s before the front arrives.  In addition, the atmosphere will have more time to moisten up and with the daytime heating we’ll have more instability thereby yielding a better chance of scattered showers with a thunderstorm or two possible especially over eastern and southeastern portions of Acadiana.  Cooler temperatures will spill into the area late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening with lows dropping into the low-mid 40s.  Models are indicating some lingering high clouds through Sunday dulling the sun and allowing for highs to stay in the low-mid 50s Sunday.  Monday through Wednesday look fair and cool with highs in the mid-upper 50s, and lower 60s for Wednesday, while overnight lows dip into the mid-upper 30s.  We’re gaining more confidence in an arctic outbreak mid-late next week that could bring the coldest temperatures of the season for the Thursday through Saturday time frame.  Today I’m going with highs dropping into the 30s for Thursday and Friday while lows could dip into the low-mid 20s.  Today’s model run was indicating sub-freezing temperatures for a 24-48 hour period from late Thursday through Saturday morning and is calling for lows in the upper teens locally Friday which is in record territory…while we can’t go for something like that this far out, it will be interesting to see the model trends over the weekend.  Right now we are saying lows in the mid-20s and highs in the mid-upper 30s Thursday and Friday…but make sure your pipes will be ready for the possibility of very cold conditions just in case.

…That’s the big question for the latter part of next week and beyond as arctic air will be the headline-maker in the U.S. next week.  In the near term, another nice and warm day is on tap for our Friday with fair to partly cloudy skies and breezy southerly winds in the forecast.  Highs Friday will push the mid-upper 70s.  A cold front will push through the area early Saturday morning generating scattered showers after midnight Friday night into the morning hours of our Saturday.  Cooler conditions will spread through Acadiana Saturday afternoon as skies clear with highs Saturday topping out no better than the lower 60s with 50s more likely for the afternoon.  Fair and chilly conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday with highs mostly in the mid-upper 50s and lows in the mid-30s.  In addition we could see some frosty conditions for Monday morning.

Temperatures will moderate for mid-week but the pattern continues to look cold and more interesting later next week and beyond as a large arctic outbreak will be unfolding across the lower 48 and especially east of the Mississippi River.  Although the longer range models have a difficult time with shallow cold and dense air-masses, today’s KATC in house model based on the GFS is showing highs in the 30s for Thursday and Friday with lows dropping into the low-mid 20s not only for late next week but again with another shot of colder air the week after.  I’m not buying into all of it quite yet, but it is quite possible given the upper pattern that is expected.  In addition, there may be one or two icing events possible close to our area through the third week of January so it appears that there may be still plenty of winter to be had in Acadiana before this month ends.  Stay tuned!

We have no major changes in the ongoing short-term forecast with pleasant weather and warmer temperatures to finish off the week.  The front for Saturday is looking like it will come earlier in the day with slight rain chances possible very late Friday night into Saturday morning.  Saturday’s highs will be closer to the low-mid 60s which may come earlier in the day with temperatures probably dropping into the 50s for the afternoon.  Lows by Sunday and Monday mornings will drop into the mid-upper 30s.  Mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-upper 50s can be expected for Sunday and Monday.  The biggest change from yesterday’s thinking is that the longer range models are looking colder and drier for Acadiana next week.  A surge of arctic air will invade much of the Eastern U.S. next week with the tail end of the cold stuff likely to bring our highs down closer to 50 or upper 40s with lows approaching the freezing mark.  The coldest period should be Tuesday into Wednesday morning with moderating temperatures more than likely for later next week.