KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

It looks like the very shallow and quite cold airmass to our north will sag southward across most of the area by tomorrow morning.  Temperatures will drop drastically for morning into the mid-upper 40s in Lafayette and may only top out in the lower 50s tomorrow afternoon.  The front will stall along the coast tomorrow so it is quite possible that areas such as Morgan City will be in the lower 70s tomorrow while the mercury may struggle to get out of the upper 30s to lower 40s across northern portions of Evangeline and St Landry Parishes.  In fact, the National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the possibility of freezing rain or drizzle for the northern portions of Acadiana.  This won’t be another snow event but slippery conditions on bridges and overpass will be possible per the advisory especially across Central Louisiana mid-morning tomorrow.  Skies will likely stay overcast until midday Wednesday with scattered showers tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night.  In addition, as the front begins to advance back to the north tomorrow night drizzle and fog will be added to the mix.  Temperatures will start to warm late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a few intervals of sun with highs reaching the 70s again for Wednesday afternoon.  Balmy conditions are still anticipated for Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 while lows moderate back into the low-mid 60s.  The next front will arrive late Saturday bringing another shot of chilly weather for Sunday and early next week…but right now it looks like we’ll see moderating temperatures for Christmas.

Acadiana will see a rather unsettled weather pattern for Monday into Tuesday with probably the warmest temperatures that we’ll see this December coming for Wednesday and Thursday.  A cool front will sag southward across the state Monday allow for mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers developing especially for late in the day as the front approaches.  It will be a tricky forecast as the front may barely reaches the coast before stalling Tuesday morning and then returning back to the north Tuesday afternoon.  If you watched our newscast tonight I showed you incredibly cold air across the Rockies into the Northern Plains with sub-zero readings from Denver on northeastward with wind chill readings as cold as 41 below in Fargo at 500pm!  This cold air won’t reach our area as it will be fighting an unfavorable upper pattern.  We will see a brief cool down Monday night into Tuesday morning but as another storm system develops in the Rockies a strong southerly flow will redevelop late Tuesday allowing our temperatures to rebound for Wednesday.  Look for highs in the mid-70s Monday with lows dropping into the mid-50s Monday night.  Temperatures should rebound by late Tuesday back into the upper 60s, perhaps even lower 70s.  Scattered showers will stay in the mix through Tuesday with a pretty good signal for fog/drizzle for Monday night into early Tuesday in the vicinity of the front.  Skies will become partly cloudy by Wednesday with near record warmth possible Wednesday and Thursday.  Highs should reach the upper 70s to lower 80s just one week after our big snowfall!  Another weak front will approach Friday with a stronger front expected to cool us more significantly for late in the weekend into early next week.  The jury is still out for Christmas with mixed signals over the last several model runs.

In addition to the pictures of yesterday’s snow on our KATC Community page…here are some photos taken by Danny Izzo, our professional station photographer.  You can check out his site at www.nouveauphoteau.net

Although tonight’s moon is called a “Cold Moon” we’re forecasting much milder conditions in our future.  Tonight’s full moon will be the biggest and brightest of the entire year.  And with crystal clear skies tonight it will be an illuminating experience!  Too bad all the snow is gone…with the exception of a few patches in St Landry Parish.  The moon will be at it’s closest to us tonight which is about 14% closer than normal which actually translates to a 30% increase in brightness.  Check out the National Geographic article that explains it all.

Weather-wise of a chilly one tonight look for a continuation of our moderating trend with temperatures rising at least into the mid-60s Saturday and low-mid 70s Sunday.  Gusty southeast winds will kick in Saturday becoming more southerly for Sunday ushering increased cloud cover as well.  Although some cold air won’t be far away from us next week, the upper southwest-flow pattern will keep any real delivery of the colder air away from us quite possibly through next weekend.  So much of next week we’ll see a fair bit of cloud cover, maybe fog issues at night, and daytime highs in the low-mid 70s.  Have a good weekend and enjoy the moon…and possibly a little of the Geminid meteor shower this weekend, but the moon will be a little too bright for good viewing.

What can you say about the snow this morning?  Conditions remained as perfect as possible for our snowfall this morning with general amounts across Acadiana in the 3/4 to 1.5 inch range but some areas especially in St Landry Parish received up to 5-6 inches of snow!  Hopefully you had a chance to enjoy it!  I have received more than 150 emails and more than 400 megabytes worth of pictures…thanks so much for sending them in.  Obviously we aren’t able to show all your pictures on-air but you can share them with the rest of the world by uploading them to our KATC Community page.  Looking at the records, this was the biggest snowfall by far since February 1988, and is likely one of the biggest, if not the biggest December snowfall in Acadiana.  In addition, there is nothing on the record books so early in the “winter” season…and it’s not officially winter yet!  Also of note, this may be one of the few years that within 3 months we had a hurricane and a snowstorm…albeit a much more brief and enjoyable event.  I would love to write more but my momma is in the hospital and have to tend to the family.  In the near term, look for a light freeze tonight with a quick warm-up tomorrow into the 50s.  It looks quite spring-like this weekend with rather cold air getting close but not quite reaching the area through much of next week.  Rob

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued by the NWS Lake Charles in anticipation of the continued threat of precipitation tonight.  Temperatures obviously will be key.  While current readings are ranging in the upper 30s to lower 40s across Acadiana a slow cooling process will be possible as the upper low over SE Texas slowly migrates to the east northeast.  Rain has changed over to almost all snow north of Houston this evening with this area likely migrating toward western and central Louisiana late tonight.  Temperatures are still near or above freezing where the snow is occurring but just slight cooling could allow for some accumulations.  This may occur in Acadiana late tonight where coldest temperatures will be north of the I-10 corridor.  Thus the winter weather advisory and the possibility of some patchy light accumulations.  At this point I am not anticipating hazardous travel but if temperature trends go lower than currently forecasted 34, we could be singing a different tune so stay tuned for a full update on the 10pm newscast.  Over the last 23 winters that I have spent on the Gulf Coast upper lows like these are almost always get modified by Gulf air keeping significant snow accumulations from occurring, but in February of 1988 there was enough drying in between precipitation bands that allowed atmospheric profiles to be conducive to accumulating snow in Acadiana.  That could happen tonight, especially in areas where the winter weather advisory is posted…so perhaps the best chance of some fun in more than 20 years!  After the possibility of a brief snow flurry tomorrow expect clouds to scour out during the afternoon.  Highs tomorrow will stay in the mid-40s with a light freeze still anticipated for tomorrow night into Friday morning.  As previously blogged, expect a nice warm-up for the weekend with mild conditions for much of next week.

Time to write now as the squall line has been weakening significantly as we approach the 10pm show…Big changes are on tap for Acadiana with temperatures roughly 30 degrees cooler Wednesday compared with our mid-70s this afternoon.  The upper low guiding the front that is pushing through tonight will be slow to clear the area with plenty of dynamics to produce clouds and occasional periods of rain and/or drizzle Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Our highs on Wednesday will be early in the morning, dropping from the upper 40s to the low-mid 40s for the latter part of the afternoon.  Add gusty north winds to the equation and it will feel quite cold.  The burning weather question for Wednesday night is whether any lingering moisture will be available as colder conditions move into the region.  There will be a very slight chance of some wintry precipitation tomorrow evening/night, but right now it looks isolated at best and quite limited.  But don’t count out the chance of seeing a few snowflakes tomorrow night quite yet.  Much to our winter-wishmaking-chagrin, model trends over the last few runs are looking drier and drier…we’ll keep the vigil just in case!  The bottom line, be ready for more cold weather with temperatures dropping into the mid-30s with wind chills in the 20s for Thursday morning.  Lingering clouds should scatter-out Thursday with highs still confined to the upper 40s.  Freezing temperatures are back in the mix for Friday morning but with lots of sunshine we should get into the at least the mid-50s for Friday afternoon.  The weekend into much of next week looks much milder with highs back into the 60s Saturday and near 70 Sunday.  Partly cloudy and balmy weather is expected for much of next week now with highs staying in the 70s.  Rain chances look slight at best through much of next week.  The long-term temperature trends also look rather mild up until Christmas, but very cold arctic air will be invading the northern Plains and Rockies (with sub-zero readings there possible) around that time so perhaps another chill will be coming later this month.

Nasty storms are on the way…busy watching Titan and Power Doppler 3000.  I’ll write more on the wintry back-end of this system in a few hours.  Stay with KATC for the latest.  Here’s the current crawl running on our air: …From Rob Perillo in the StormTeam3 Weather Lab…A TORNADO WATCH is in effect for ALL OF ACADIANA through 1100pm…Storms containing hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible later this evening as a strong cold front sweeps across the area…Stay with KATC for additional severe weather information and Power Doppler 3000 Displays, or track the storms and download the Desktop Weather Lab at www.katc.com…

Big changes are in the offing over the next few days as a strong storm system moves into the Plains tonight allowing for a large area of showers and storms to develop overnight across Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas.  A trailing cold front will advance toward Acadiana late tomorrow afternoon into the evening and with it a healthy dose of shower and thunderstorm activity likely.   The Storm Prediction Center does have the area hatched in for a slight risk of severe storms mainly due to the strong upper jet support that this system will initially bring.  So be on the look-out of some weather watches and possibly warnings tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

Colder air will spill back into the region for Wednesday morning, but picking-up on model trends from yesterday the upper support will slow to a crawl tomorrow night and allow for a surface low pressure system to develop in the Gulf of Mexico just south of Louisiana.  This means nearly continuous cloud cover and occasional periods of rain will be likely Wednesday into Thursday, especially for Wednesday night.  Temperatures will drop into the 40s Wednesday morning and will likely stay there through mid-morning Friday!  So after a stormy Tuesday be ready for dreary, breezy and cold weather with some rain staying in the mix.  Although this system looks too warm for anything of significance, there is a slight risk that some precipitation Wednesday night could have a wintry element to it so we’ll be on the look-out for that too.  Sunny skies will finally return Friday warming us back into the 50s with a nice and mild weekend yielding to even warmer temperatures early next week.

It will be a chilly weekend as high pressure keeps us dry and cool/cold.  Tonight the big question will be is whether the high level cirrus clouds have enough of an impact to keep our temperatures above freezing.  Right now the forecast for morning is a hedge with a frosty low of 33.  Outlying areas to the north where the skies have the best chance of being clear the longest may see temperatures near 30 by morning.  Right now it looks like the high clouds won’t clear out, or thin out, until about 3-5am…stay tuned for the latest.  The rest of the forecast remains on track with mostly sunny and cool conditions for our Saturday and Sunday.  Highs will be milder, in the upper 50s to near 60.  We could see another chance of a frost again Sunday morning with lows mostly in the mid-30s.  Milder conditions are expected for Monday as a strong storm system begins to roll out of the Rockies.  This next storm may maximize right over us allowing for the possibility of several inches of rain and strong to possibly severe storms for Tuesday.  Interestingly enough, the models hold back the upper low for Wednesday which could mean a raw and slightly wet one…maybe a few sleet pellets in the mix, but this is not a overly probable scenario.

In the even more interesting department, the long range 12-15 projections have been showing a significant arctic outbreak over the Plains for the weekend of December 20th…in addition, there may be plenty of dynamics for precipitation (note the dates of the long range forecasts).  Although this is a very long way out, odds are improving that there will be a significant snow/frozen precipitation event not too far from Acadiana…we’re not saying it’s going to happen and there is a little “wishcasting” involved, but there is always hope for Christmas, in this case, perhaps 4 or 5 days before…stay tuned!  have a good weekend.  Rob