KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

After a chilly start to the New Year milder temperatures are in the forecast into the weekend, but we’ll likely see a few periods of rain into Friday and eventually showers and thunderstorms into the weekend.  The front that pushed through this morning will back up tomorrow as a warm front engendering clouds and possibly some fog, drizzle and scattered showers by tomorrow night.  I have kept rain chances at 20% for late Thursday but it should increase to 40% Thursday night and about 30% on Friday.  Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday afternoon and will likely stay in the 50s for Thursday night.  Highs will reach the lower 70s Friday in spite of mostly cloudy skies while mid-70s can be expected for Saturday and perhaps Sunday.   As we head into the weekend the upper level flow will become southwesterly with embedded disturbances lending to a healthy chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms just about at any time with the threat of stronger storms a possibility.  Although it appears a fairly strong cool front will push through Sunday night lingering moisture and a strong upper system will likely translate to soaking rains with embedded thunderstorms as low pressure develops along the stalling front Monday.  Colder and drier weather should move in for mid-next week while we continue to watch for a possible arctic outbreak down through road in mid-January.

Updates to yesterday’s blog entry include better chances of showers for the weekend, especially Saturday and warmer conditions for the weekend.  Highs this weekend through Monday will reach into the low-mid 70s.  Although their may be a few brief showers late Thursday into Friday rain chances should gradually improve with upper disturbances this weekend.  A rather energetic storm system is shaping up for Monday with the possibility of locally heavy rains and strong to possibly severe storms.  I mentioned yesterday that the long range models have been hinting at a major arctic outbreak across the lower 48 in about a week but today the models have backed off that solution.  Nonetheless I would look for more winter-like temperatures to follow our Monday weather system with perhaps a shot of colder air coming in for the following weekend.  Over the next couple of days I’m reviewing the top five weather events in Acadiana this past year…make your list and check with ours.  And if you want to cheat you can check out the National Weather Services top 10 list posted Monday.

Tuesday will bring another nice and seasonable day with temperatures topping out in the upper 60s.  Another cold front will arrive by Wednesday morning and should bring temperatures down about 10 degrees for highs Wednesday into New Year’s Day.  Rain chances should be slight with this front but more changeable weather and more significant rain chances should arrive Thursday night into Friday.  Look for highs on Wednesday to top out in the mid-upper 50s dropping into the mid-upper 30s for Thursday morning.  Temperatures will likely be in the lower 40s with some wind chill at the stroke of midnight into the near year.  The pattern gets murky when the front returns northward as a warm front Thursday night into Friday with enough upper level energy to produce rain chances and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms.  The pattern will stay unsettled and then warm significantly by the end of the weekend with a vigorous weather system likely to produce a good chance of rain and storms, may some strong storms, early next week.  And for what it’s worth, the longer range projection show rather cold air moving into the region mid-late next week.  This could be the coldest part of our winter…in fact, tonight at 10pm I’ll show the long range temperature model forecast into the second week of January so stay tuned!

Temperatures most of this week have been near or record breaking as highs flirted with 80. A Pacific cold front will bring our highs back to where they should be for at least a few days.  The pre-frontal convection made it to Acadiana at about 7pm producing gusty winds, heavy downpours, and occasional lightning. Thankfully no severe weather was reported with the squalls. Behind the front, skies will stay cloudy for most of Sunday before clearing Monday as high pressure moves right over us. Into New Year’s Eve, the forecast still looks to be on track with sunny skies and another front New Year’s Day.

Near record highs were all across the state Friday. Baton Rouge and New Orleans beat or tied their old record temps for the day as highs reached into the low 80s. An approaching cold front will increase our winds Saturday afternoon.  Winds will be out of the SSE at about 20-25 with higher gusts. The front should make it to Acadiana by about 8pm with scattered showers out ahead of a squall line. Gusty winds, heavy downpours, and occasional lightning is expected with the front. It should be east of us by 3am with cooler air moving in Sunday morning. Temperatures will be back to normal for a couple of days but then warm up again on Tuesday as winds turn southerly again.

I hope you all had a Merry Christmas and enjoyed the warm weather.

The cloudy and cold weather entrenched across the area will quickly yield to milder conditions Tuesday as yet another Rockies storm system pulls this weekend’s cold front back to the north as a warm front.  This will keep our temperatures steady for a good part of the night with breezy easterly winds increasing from the southeast tomorrow.  Precipitation chances should stay low through much of the night but the cloud deck will likely thicken and lower for morning.  Some patchy drizzle and scattered showers that develop tomorrow morning should yield to scattered showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon.  Temperatures will shoot up from the lower 40s into the mid-upper 60s by late in the day and will likely stay in the 60s for Tuesday night.  I would also look for more low clouds and drizzle tomorrow night, and if winds die down enough, some fog for Wednesday morning.  Warmer temperatures are expected for Wednesday in spite of mostly cloudy skies.  An approaching front will continue to allow for more scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through Wednesday, but this front will likely run out of gas across the area for Christmas Eve/Day.  That means plenty of clouds with highs in the mid-70s Wednesday and perhaps lower 70s, maybe upper 60s, for Christmas Day.  Fog may be an issue again just about each night for the rest of the week.  Mild to warm weather will continue through Friday but will come to end Saturday with the next energetic front.  Saturday’s front could involve some strong storms so we’ll be on the look out for that too.  Cooler conditions will move back into the region for Sunday, but right now the next front is not looking as cold as the last few fronts that we have experienced…but that could change…as it seems it almost always does!  I’ll be off for the next several days so Merry Christmas everyone!  Rob

A blast of Arctic air and the official start of winter arrived today. Winds gusted up to 34 mph behind the front as a result of a tight pressure gradient from the strong area of high pressure near low pressure. The wind will only relax slightly on Monday. There is still a great deal of moisture aloft behind the front and with temperatures dropping like they are, I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of some snow flurries or sleet Sunday night into Monday morning. We’ve had some light rain and if it doesn’t move out quickly, hello snow! Even though we still have clouds and strong wind, temperatures will still dip into the 20s across Northern Acadiana. I think if skies were clear and the winds were calm, we’d get into the lower 20s or even teens Sunday night. But that’s not the case and Monday temperatures will struggle to warm up, only getting into the mid-40s for the high.

We can’t complain too much about the cold because the rest of the country is dealing with a lot worse and blizzard conditions from the upper mid west to New England.

Things change rather quickly Tuesday as a warm front lifts out of the Gulf our way. Winds will pick up again, sustained at about 25 mph with higher gusts. Looking at profiles of the atmosphere I’m a little concerned about Tuesday evening through Wednesday. There is a fair amount of helicity (corkscrew motions within the storm) which can cause storms to rotate and produce strong to damaging winds. Also with the strong low level winds and the warm front to force the air to rise, severe weather and maybe even a tornado threat is possible. We’ll have to keep a close eye on how things pan out early Tuesday.

The rest of the week will be well above normal with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with a chance of rain everyday. Not the kind of weather I would like for Christmas. And the last minute shoppers will have to deal with more than traffic and lines at the stores.

Get ready for another round of quick changes this weekend as our last day of fall and very mild weather will yield to another strong cold front just in time for the first day of winter Sunday.  Fog looks to be an issue again late tonight into tomorrow morning with a Dense fog Advisory posted for the area once again for later tonight.  After a foggy/cloudy start tomorrow I would again expect a few intervals of sunshine with highs pushing back into the mid-upper 70s…incidentally, we hit 80 today!  A strong cold front will come barreling through the area tomorrow night sparking of a few quick showers and then ushering in much colder temperatures.  We could see another brief round of thick sea fog again tomorrow evening ahead of the front but it should clear out quickly before daybreak Sunday.  The winter solstice officially arrives at 6:04am Sunday with windy and colder temperatures moving back into the region during the day.  Temperatures will likely stay in the upper 40s to lower 50s and dropping through the entire day with freezing conditions a good bet for Monday morning.  This time we’ll have an air mass that has been over more snow-covered areas so upper 20s are expected for early Monday.  The forecast gets tricky again late Monday with plenty of clouds returning and maybe some precipitation developing Monday late into Monday night as our front will stall and then starting moving back northward for Tuesday.  Right now I’m going with slight chances for Monday but there could be a brief period where there may be a few patches of a wintry mix developing but anything of significance will likely be short-lived with a warm-air advection scenario developing for Tuesday.  That means the old “cold to clouds to drizzle trick” with moderating temperatures for Tuesday.  Cold temperatures Monday will likely hold steady Monday night warming back into the 60s by Tuesday afternoon.  It looks mild Wednesday through Friday with spring-like temperatures in the low-mid 70s and a few spring-like showers for Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and the day after.  Another front will bring rain chances next weekend and another shot of cold weather to follow.  Have a good weekend.

This is what it looked like Wednesday morning after the warm front passed. Once again dense fog developed Wednesday night but so far no major accidents have been reported. Hopefully, we will continue to exercise extra caution because fog is in the forecast through Saturday morning. Remember to always use your low beams when driving and slow down. Temperatures today were almost 25 degrees warmer than yesterday but you didn’t have to go far to find cool weather. Alexandria only reached the low 50s because the warm front stalled just before making it that far north. The warm front will slowly move away and we’ll be left with highs in the upper 70s over the next few days. Our next cold front looks to come a little earlier now, making it here on Sunday afternoon. Winds will pick up and scattered storms are expected before the front and it will be quite chilly to start the work-week. Cool weather won’t stay long before southerly winds return and warmer temperatures. Looking ahead to Christmas, a cold front is expected move through on the eve and it will be cool and dry.

After a cool and drizzly day, temperatures will be warming overnight. A warm front will lift northward bringing our highs up to 73 on Wednesday. It will still be cloudy and drizzly as a great deal of moisture stays with us. Through the rest of the week into the weekend temperatures will reach into the upper 70s with lows around 60. Skies will be mostly cloudy as weak upper level disturbances move through but rain should stay away after Wednesday. Not many changes to the forecast until about Monday when the next cold front passes. Looks like we will continue to ride on the weather roller coaster!