KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

A strong cool front will barrel on through Acadiana after midnight with a few showers possible after 10pm and before 2am with increasing and gusty winds developing after midnight.  NNW winds will increase to 15-25mph late tonight and will be near 20-30mph tomorrow with a few gusts to 35mph possible midday through mid-afternoon.  Temperatures will drop to near 50 by morning and will struggle to reach 60 Saturday afternoon in spite of full sunshine.  Wind chilly conditions with temperatures dropping into the mid-30s will be likely for Sunday morning with lots of sunshine Sunday afternoon pushing the mercury into the lower 60s.  With lighter winds Sunday it will feel warmer although highs won’t much higher than that of Saturday.  Sunday night/Monday morning is the key temperature forecast as winds will be nearly calm and although upper atmospheric temperatures will be increasing we could see a radiational cooling event that could lead to a frost or light freeze for Monday morning.  It looks to stay cool and dry for much of next week with temperatures stay at or slightly below the norm (especially at night) of lower 70s and lower 50s.

An upper level and weak surface low in the western Gulf of Mexico will produce widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore tonight into Friday as it eases northeastward.  Acadiana will be on the northern fringe of this system with scattered showers developing across coastal parishes by morning and then moving inland through the mid-afternoon hours.  Most of the precipitation should be on the light side and will end tomorrow afternoon/evening.  A strong cold front likely to come barrelling through Acadiana shortly after midnight tomorrow night ushering a little taste of winter.  It should stay mild this evening with some light fog possible early before the showers move in; temperatures should hold near 60 through morning.  Highs tomorrow will reach the mid-70s but don’t get to accustomed to the balminess.  As we have been advertising, it will turn windy and much cooler by Saturday morning with temperatures dropping through the 50s perhaps into the upper 40s by Saturday morning.  Gusty north winds near 20-30mph combined with the cool air advection Saturday will keep our highs in the lower 60s with lows likely to drop into the mid-upper 30s Sunnday morning…not including the wind chill.  Sunday will be sunny and cool with highs in the lower 60s again while Sunday night will bring calm and clear conditions allowing for the possibility of frosty conditions Monday morning.  We could see a light freeze for Monday morning, but for now I am going with 33/34.  Sunny skies with some temperature moderation is expected early to mid-next week.  The pattern later next week into the following weekend is looking somewhat more unsettled.  This weekend though will be chilly!

After a good soaking today, plenty of leftover clouds and unsettled weather will likely stay with us through at least midday Friday.  Doppler estimates indicated 1-2 inches of rain across most of Acadiana today with a few isolated areas receiving more, especially to the north and west.  The jetstream overhead will stay on the active side with embedded disturbances rolling out of northern Mexico keeping showers and some thunderstorms cooking in the Gulf of Mexico with some of the shower activity edging into the area, especially coastal areas tomorrow.  Some additional moisture could get drawn farther to the north Thursday night into Friday morning keeping rain chances with us until a strong cold front pushes through late Friday/Friday night.  In the near term tonight, stratiform clouds will likely lower yielding misty drizzle and some light fog.  Temperatures will stay in the lower 60s to upper 50s overnight with cloud cover likely to keep our highs in the upper 60s tomorrow…there may be a few breaks in the clouds especially northern and western areas that could allow temperatures to reach the lower 70s tomorrow afternoon.  Mid-70s are expected for Friday with scattered showers perhaps a thunderstorm possible before the cold front pushes through by evening.  Saturday will feature windy and much cooler conditions with highs in the lower 60s dropping into the upper 30s Saturday night and in the mid-upper 60s Sunday.  Lots of sunshine is expected Saturday through Tuesday with moderating temperatures after a chilly Monday morning.  Another front may bring the chance of rain and perhaps another cool late next week and what looks to be another cool and dry weekend to follow.

Showers and storms will continue to slowly advance into the area overnight tonight through tomorrow morning.  A large storm system in the Plains States is advancing eastward while a secondary upper level low over western Texas this evening will ignite more storms in southeast Texas that will ultimately push through Acadiana during the morning hours of Wednesday.  This means we’ll start off our Wednesday on a stormy note with several inches of rain and some embedded heavy thunderstorms likely.  The severe weather threat does look marginal, however there could be a few very strong storms during the morning.  Otherwise, due to the jet stream structure, heavy rainfall will be the key event over the next 12-24 hours with rain totals likely in the 1-3″ range but some areas to the west and north of Lafayette, in Acadiana, may see 3-5″.  Showers and storms will slowly end from west to east during Wednesday afternoon, but there will be plenty of upper level support to keep clouds and and area of surface pressure right along our immediate coast through Thursday so unsettled weather with at least scattered showers will be possible Thursday through Friday morning.  Temperatures will stay on the mild side until a strong cold front gets here late Friday.  This weekend will bring more sunny skies, but much cooler temperatures with highs only in the low-mid 60s while lows could drop into the mid-30s or a little lower by Sunday morning.

A series of disturbances embedded in a vigorous upper level low pressure system will roll through the Plains States and produce widespread showers and thunderstorms from Texas to Louisiana late Tuesday into Wednesday.  This evening a warm from was draped along the Louisiana coast and will drift northward overnight allowing for patchy rain and a few heavier showers to develop farther to the west.  Showers and storms will spread from Eastern Texas into Western Louisiana tomorrow afternoon with highest rain chances likely mainly to the north and west of Acadiana.  Models have been at odds on timing and intensity of several disturbances that will be rolling on through, but I would plan on high rain chances developing area-wide tomorrow evening/night spreading across the entire area Wednesday.  Our in house “Futurecast” computer forecasts are indicating the threat of 3-5″ of rain or more in northern and western portions of Acadiana so a good soaking is at least in the offing.  In addition, the Storm Prediction Center does have part of the area hatched in for the slight risk of severe weather Tuesday night into early Wednesday so we’ll keep an eye on that as well.  We should have a better feel for rain totals and storm intensities Tuesday as this system unfolds.  In addition, there is a question on whether additional energy comes in for the latter part of Wednesday into Wednesday night allowing for another round of soaking rains.  Drier more stable air should move in for Thursday while a strong cold front will be poised to move through Acadiana by Friday night which could bring some very chilly weather for the weekend.  The weekend is looking mostly sunny but quite cool with overnight lows having a good shot at the mid-30s for Sunday and next Monday mornings.

Nice and dry air is moving in the wake of our Friday morning cool front with lots of sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures expected this entire weekend.  Look for highs in the low-mid 70s through Sunday while lows chill into the mid-40s.  As previously advertised the pattern will become quite energetic next week with the jet stream ushering in healthy disturbances that should eventually yield excellent rain chances and healthy storms from Tuesday through Thursday.  Hopefully we will see some much needed moisture but as always when it rains it pours and there may be some very heavy rains in the region.  Longer range guidance indicates that there will be 3-5″ rain accumulations possible somewhere in southeast Texas and or portions of Louisiana during the Tuesday through Thursday time-frame.  There may also be a couple of severe weather events so stay tuned for updates.  Meanwhile for those looking ahead to next weekend, it also looks like a winner with the unsettled weather of next week clearing out for next Friday.  Enjoy the weekend!

A moderate cool front will likely allow for another round of scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms after midnight tonight through the early dawn hours of Friday.  Activity should be scattered and quick moving with just a slight risk of a few stronger thunderstorms.  Lingering showers should end Friday morning with clearing from west to east likely after the noon hour.  Cooler temperatures will be likely with temperatures dropping into the 60s, possibly upper 50s, before afternoon sun brings the mercury back into the lower 70s.  Cool and crisp conditions will return for tomorrow night with lows dropping into the mid-upper 40s for Saturday morning.  This weekend still looks great with lots of sunshine accompanied by highs in the mid-70s.  As we have been alluding to next week will become rather dynamic with a quick moving weather system expected to bring scattered showers and possibly some strong storms late Monday into Monday night with an unsettled pattern continuing for much of the week.  Long range models continue to point to a very energetic weather system for next Thursday with very healthy rains and more than likely a significant severe weather threat as well.  As always around here it’s either feast or famine and while beneficial rains are coming they may come with a severe weather bite as well.

A cool front will produce scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night with unsettled weather possible through midday Friday.  Expect another nice and warm day Wednesday with a few more afternoon clouds with temperatures topping out in the lower 80s.  Breezy southeast winds Wednesday will make it much milder for Wednesday night with temperatures holding into the 60s.  Clouds should increase for Thursday with scattered showers developing to the north and west of Acadiana during the day and moving in for the late afternoon into the overnight hours.  The front will push through by Friday morning but upper level support may allow for lingering showers behind the front through the early Friday.  Highs Friday will be at least 10 degrees cooler than Thursday (in the lower 70s) with skies clearing Friday night.  We will be blessed with another great weekend with lots of sunshine and highs in the mid-upper 70s while nighttime lows dip back down into the upper 40s.  Finally it appears that the longer range pattern will become more progressive and energetic with a better chance of showers and some strong storms by next Monday night/Tuesday and an even stronger system with the potential for soaking rains and perhaps severe weather late next week.  Rain totals with the upcoming event Thursday evening should be .25 inches or less but more substantial precipitation totals will be more likely for next week’s systems.

Our nice stretch of weather will continue for a few more days but our temperatures will moderate into the warm category.  A cool front will arrive by Thursday night which should produce scattered showers and some thunderstorms mainly Thursday night.  Unfortunately this system will likely be too progressive to put a dent in our recent rainfall deficit.  Strongest dynamics for thunderstorms and possibly severe weather should bypass us to the north with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures returning for late Friday into the weekend.

Since mid-September and post-Hurricane Ike we have been very dry.  In fact, after a wet early September, mainly due to Gustav as Ike was a relatively “dry” hurricane, we have been way too dry falling to about 10 inches below normal for the year.  The pattern looks to change for next week with an extended period of wetter weather possible…keep your fingers crossed!