KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

A spectacular fall weekend is on tap for Acadiana as dry, cool high pressure takes residence over the next few days.  Highs will top out in the mid-70s Saturday and upper 70s for Sunday while lows drop into the mid-50s for Saturday morning and lower 50s for Saturday night/Sunday morning.  Moderating temperatures are expected after Monday morning with fair to partly cloudy skies expected through Tuesday.  Tropical moisture will surge northward on Wednesday allowing for the possibility of a few showers with a fairly strong upper low to develop across the nations mid-section next week.  Showers and storms could become more likely by Thursday.  Enjoy the weekend!

We’re making some changes to the forecast, mainly before the weekend…as expected plenty of tropical moisture has moved into the region with the deepest conduit of moisture in eastern Texas and SW Louisiana.  Scattered showers and storms will concentrate in the aforementioned areas overnight through early tomorrow with activity spreading from the west to the east on Thursday.  A cool front will push through Acadiana tomorrow evening but the upper flow is going to stay out of the southwest for Friday.  Given the expected thermal and moisture profiles Friday I have “upped” our rain chances with occasional periods of light to moderate rain likely Friday morning through midday with activity decreasing for us during the afternoon and evening hours.  So it will be a rather gray , damp on cool Friday with temperatures struggling to get out of the 60s into the lower 70s for Friday afternoon.  Skies should clear overnight into Saturday with lots of sunshine and cool temperatures dominating this weekend.  Quiet weather will persist into early next week but a rather changeable pattern will likely commence mid-late next week and more than likely continue through the followikng weekend and beyond…officially fall when we get the quick changes!

Warm and humid conditions will continue over the next couple of days with scattered showers possible through very early Friday.  A cool front will cross the region Thursday night with some lingering showers and clouds possible through early Friday morning.  I do expect skies to clear Friday afternoon with nice and cool weather anticipated into the weekend.  Tomorrow and Thursday will bring more of the same with partly to at times mostly cloudy skies, warm temperatures in the mid-80s and the chance of scattered showers and a few storms especially over coastal parishes and the extreme southwestern part of the state.  Highs should cool into the mid-upper 70s Friday and will be in the upper 70s this weekend with wall to wall sunshine.  Temperatures at night will drop into the mid-upper 50s this weekend with fair skies and a slow moderating temperature trend anticipated for early to mid-next week.

As expected TD#15 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Omar and is nearing hurricane strength.  Omar will move northeastward brushing just to the east of Puerto Rico with category 2 conditions possible over the British and possibly the US Virgin Islands/Leeward Islands tomorrow evening.  TD#16 identified in the extreme western Caribbean could become TS Paloma later tonight or early tomorrow as it drifts westward prior to landfall across Central America.

As expected deeper tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico associated with an upper low has drifted in from the east producing widely scattered showers across Acadiana today.  This pattern/flow will continue over the next few days producing breezy easterly winds, widely scattered showers and above normal temperatures.  The bulk of the deepest moisture and instability however will stay offshore and head toward Texas with a better chance of storms and gustier winds in these areas.  In addition, the moderate easterly gradient producing gusty winds offshore is allowing for coastal tides to rise about 1 foot above predicted tide levels with this pattern lasting until a front gets here Friday.  A cool front should bring a better chance of showers and some storms either late Thursday night or Friday which should set up for a beautiful weekend.  Meanwhile, the tropics have become active with Tropical Depression Nana in the open Atlantic weakening from storm status and no threat to land.  Meanwhile the area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Caribbean was upgraded to a depression earlier today.  The 15th depression of the season should become a tropical storm, if so the name will be Omar.  This system should eventually move to the northeast and could become a hurricane in the open Atlantic.  In the Western Caribbean just east of Central America an area of disturbed weather is looking more organized and could become the next depression/storm.  This system may move very little over the next few days but I would expect developments here too.  The named system after Omar will be Paloma.

With crystal clear skies the International Space Station will be visible and quite bright this evening.  Look for it moving from the northwestern sky moving to the southeast (and just about overhead) at about 7:54pm this Thursday evening.  If you miss it tonight, check the link as there will be another good viewing opportunity Saturday evening provided we have fair skies (which we are expecting).  It’s wild to know that that bright object (that looks like a very bright star) is bigger than a football field, has astronauts on-board and is hauling at a speed greater than 17,000 mph!  Enjoy the view and the weather.  Our pattern will moderate this weekend with higher humidity, more clouds and warmer temperatures at night and during the day.  Per the last entry, I still expect moisture to increase from the east starting Monday with scattered showers and unsettled weather expected at least through Wednesday/Thursday with a cool front eventually arriving by next Friday or Saturday.

Another run of comfortable temperatures and humidity is expected as rains move off to the east with decreasing cloudiness overnight.  Temperatures will drop into the lower 60s by morning and should top out in the upper 70s tomorrow depending on the extent of cloud cover.  Some wrap around clouds associated with the upper low that is pushing the front across our area may affect the area, especially northern parishes of Acadiana, which will keep temperatures in the mid-70s.  Lower 80s will be possible across western and southern areas that see full sunshine.  Temperatures will drop into the mid-upper 50s for Thursday and Friday mornings with highs in the lower 80s Thursday and mid-80s Friday with lots of sunshine.  This weekend will bring fair to partly cloudy and warmer conditions with highs pushing into the upper 80s while lows moderate into the low-mid 60s.  Next chance of rain should come by about Tuesday of next week.  Incidentally rain totals today were generally between 1/4 and 1/3 of an inch…we needed more but only a few isolated areas did well while spots to the west saw a better soaking.  As for the former Tropical Storm Marco, now a depression is moving inland in Mexico, and may go down as one of the smallest tropical storms on record…with radius of tropical storm winds at one time no greater than 4 miles…by comparison, the radius of tropical storm winds with Hurricane Ike was 260 miles!

The chance of scattered showers and storms will be increasing for Acadiana Tuesday as a cool front traverses the area.  Activity will be scattered in nature tomorrow but more than half of us should get wet at some point during the day, especially during the latter part of the afternoon.   Rainfall totals should be generally 1/2-1 inch or less but there could be a few healthy thunderstorms.  Although we are not hatched in for any severe weather there may be a very slight risk of a nasty storm.  Drier air should move back into the region late Tuesday night with skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly sunny on Wednesday.  Cooler temperatures are expected for Wednesday through Thursday with highs in the lower 80s while lows drop into the mid-upper 50s.  Fair and warmer conditions will continue into Friday with humidity, some clouds, warmer temperatures and a few widely scattered showers possible this weekend.

In the tropics, the area of disturbed weather this weekend over the Yucatan emerged in the Bay of Campeche and became a tropical depression this morning and a tropical storm this afternoon.

Tropical Storm Marco is a very small, compact storm with 65mph sustained winds.  This system will move inland tomorrow night between Veracruz and Tampico and could actually be close to hurricane strength at landfall.  The bottom line is that this system will have no impact on our area nor on our part of the Gulf of Mexico.

Our nice run of weather will come to an end after the weekend with healthy rain chances shaping up for mid-next week.  In the near term expect fair to partly cloudy skies this weekend with more clouds in the afternoons.  Rain chances will stay slight this weekend but we did see one or two isolated pop-up showers this afternoon so that may be possible again tomorrow and Sunday but chances of getting wet this weekend should be less than 10%.  Gulf and ultimately Caribbean moisture will move into the area next week as a large upper level trough advances from the west coast through the Rockies this weekend and eventually the Plains early next week.  Clouds will increase Monday with the risk of scattered showers, possibly a thunderstorm.  Upper level dynamics should get quite healthy for Tuesday into Wednesday with showers and locally heavy storms becoming more likely.  We may see a few inches of rain plus there may also be a severe weather threat so we’ll be watching for that as well.  Drier conditions look to return to the area for next Thursday and Friday, but we could see showers return to the area for the following weekend.

Our outstanding weather continues as another surge of high pressure has ushered 10 degree lower dew points.  Lows tonight will drop into the mid-50s with highs tomorrow rebounding into the low-mid 80s with wall to wall sunshine.  After another cool one Thursday night into Friday morning we should warm back up to the mid-80s Friday afternoon.  Fair skies will persist into the weekend with moderating humidity and overnight lows.  Highs will push into the mid-upper 80s this weekend with higher humidity and a summer feel to the weather for next week.  A developing trough over the western states this weekend and next week should usher in healthy east to southeast winds and summer-like humidity for next week with the first real chance of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms since Hurricane Ike.