KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Visual Flight Rules (VFR) for the Sertoma Airshow will apply this weekend with just a few clouds possible for our Saturday as a weakening upper disturbance drops down from the north.  Currently this system is producing showers and a few storms in Arkansas but is expected to weaken dramatically overnight tonight with a few residual high clouds possible for Saturday.  Temperatures will peak in the upper 70s Saturday and should be a little cooler in the mid-70s Sunday with lots of sun.  Nighttime temperatures will stay cool, generally in the lower 50s with some patchy fog possible at daybreak.  Our very nice weather will continue through Wednesday with highs warming into the lower 80s.  We’re hopeful that a few showers, possibly a thunderstorm will be possible with the next cool front for next Thursday.  We are quite dry and and most of us have had an inch or rain or less over the last 5-6 weeks.  The front Thursday will be a fast mover so significant rains are not expected but there are hints at more dynamic systems toward the latter part of the second week of November that may afford us better opportunities for rain.  Have a great weekend.  Rob

High pressure will be moving overhead tonight and with very dry air and light winds, the atmosphere will set up for excellent radiational cooling.  Radiational cooling occurs when winds are light, skies are clear and dew points are low.  Essentially in this atmospheric set-up, heat from the ground escapes easily into the upper atmosphere allowing for a net cooling at the surface.  Computer model guidance is calling for lows in the upper 30s but with this pattern we’ll undercut the computers and call for mid-30 by morning.  Lower 30s will be possible across the northern parishes of Acadiana and the National Weather Service just issued a freeze warning at press time (634pm) for Allen, Evangeline, St Landry and Avoyelles Parishes.

Even though our “measured” temperatures may not reach the freezing mark, we will likely see widespread frost by morning.  On a smaller scale of radiational cooling, a micro-meteorological process of frost formation can occur given the right conditions and only when temperatures reach 32 degrees or colder.  On frosty nights/mornings this will occur within an inch (or less) of a given surface.  When winds are light and air is dry moisture from the ground evaporates which uses energy/heat.  The energy/heat used in the process escapes into the atmosphere allowing for a net cooling at the surface.  This is why we see frost.  But we “officially” measure temperature 6ft above the ground so even though we may not have freezing temperatures measured, the frost process can occur within a much smaller scale, normally within a fraction of an inch from the ground or any exposed surface that is not heated such as car tops, house roofs etc.  This can also happen on leaves of a plant, so that’s why it’s prudent to cover the plants and strop the process of radiative cooling when we have temperatures in the mid-upper 30s.  In fact, given the right atmospheric conditions, frost can occur when “official” temperatures are in the lower 40s!  After a frosty start tomorrow expect a nice moderating temperature trend into the weekend.  Wednesday night/Thursday morning could be frosty again mainly in northern areas with the projected low close to 40…but that could change depending on our winds.  Otherwise expect highs to get back into the 70s for Thursday afternoon and reach the upper 70s through the weekend.  Overnight lows will moderate back into the upper 40s to lower 50s for the weekend.

A strong Canadian ridge of high pressure will dominate over the next several days while ushering in the coldest overnight/morning temperatures so far this fall.  There should be enough of a wind tonight to keep the atmosphere mixed enough to keep temperatures at or above the upper 30s by morning.  But with calm winds and crystal clear skies I would expect a good chance of our first frost of the season by Wednesday morning (especially along on north of the I-10 corridor) with lows dropping into the mid-30s.  So you may want to protect the tender vegetation for tonight and most certainly tomorrow night.  Highs will stay in the low-mid 60s tomorrow but should return to near 70 for Wednesday afternoon.  Unabated sunshine will likely last through at least Thursday with moderating temperatures and fair to partly cloudy skies for Friday into the weekend.   Highs will be back into the upper 70s for Friday and could be in the lower 80s this weekend.  No major weather systems are foreseen through at least mid-next week so it looks to stay quite dry.

A blast of cool air will be moving through Acadiana on Monday. The reason I say blast…winds will be gusting up to 30 mph when the front passes. Temperatures may be the coolest of the season behing the cold front Tuesday and Wednesday morning as lows could dip to 39 degrees well inland.  Highs will only rebound into the 60s on Monday and Tuesday afternoon. A gradual warmup is also in store for the rest of the week as high pressure gives us plenty of sun. By Halloween temperatures will reach into the low 80s. No significant rain chances are in the 8day forecast as dry air continues. The tropics still look quiet but that’s about what we expect at this point. Any storms that do form usually stay well south of here or curve in the Atlantic.

Enjoy the sunshine!

Acadiana will be blessed with another gorgeous weekend with wall to wall sunshine, comfortably mild days and clear, crisp nights.  Highs will top out in the upper 70s Saturday and near 80 on Sunday while lows dip into the mid-upper 40s tonight and upper 40s Saturday night.  A dry and moderately strong cold front will bring another surge of even cooler air for Monday.  Although not a classic “blue-norther” our temperatures will drop another 5-8 degrees with highs in the lower 70s through Tuesday while morning lows Tuesday and Wednesday morning may flirt with the lower 40s.  Meteorologist Kari Hall will have updated temperature forecasts this weekend.  In the longer range it appears that we will see a moderating temperature trend toward the end of next week with partly cloudy and seasonably warm conditions possibly persisting into next weekend.  Right now it does not appear that we will see a significant wet weather event until we are at least several days into November.  Have a great Weekend!

As promised nice and cool air has spilled in behind last night’s showers/storms and associated cool front. Rainfall totals were generally in the 2/3-3/4 inch range for most of us so at least we received some much need ground moisture.  Wrap around clouds and a few misty sprinkles will be possible this evening/overnight with lingering clouds possible through tomorrow morning.  The cloud cover will thin from the west-southwest to the east-northeast tomorrow with mostly sunny skies expected for the afternoon.  Lots of sunshine and seasonably cool weather is expected through the entire weekend with another surge of even cooler air possible early next week.  Milder temperatures will return later next week with partly cloudy and warm conditions expected for Halloween; although the high on Friday should be near 80, trick-or-treat temperatures should be in the lower 70s.

A strong cold front will advance through the area by tomorrow morning producing scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of it late tonight through early tomorrow morning.  Best rain chances are expected after 200am tonight and before 1000am tomorrow.  As I mentioned yesterday, the best chance of stronger storms should be confined to the Arklatex and northern Louisiana, but we can’t rule out some healthy storms in Acadiana during pre/post dawn hours tomorrow.  Although we do need a good soaking, I suspect that most activity will be scattered in nature with general rainfall in the .25″-.50″ range, but a few lucky folks could see some very heavy downpours…this would be mostly likely to occur over eastern and southeastern portions of Acadiana.  Baton Rouge and New Orleans should see significantly higher rainfall totals as say compared to Lafayette.  Clouds and scattered showers will lingering behind the front through midday with drier weather and clearing skies anticipated for tomorrow night.  The big story tomorrow is that it will feel more like January than October with gusty north winds and temperatures hovering in the lower 60s, so make sure you send the kids off with a jacket or sweater tomorrow morning, as it will likely feel much cooler for tomorrow afternoon.  Abundant sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures are expected for Friday into the weekend with another reinforcing shot of cool air arriving Sunday night.  That means very nice and dry weather will continue for much of next week.  The next opportunity for showers after tonight and tomorrow morning may come around Halloween or November 1st.

A large storm system rolling out of the Rockies and into the Plains will induce Gulf moisture to advance northward tomorrow yielding an increase in cloud cover through Wednesday evening.  A few isolated showers/sprinkles will be possible late Wednesday afternoon with showers and some storms becoming more likely very late Wednesday night into Thursday.  A cool front will push through the area Thursday morning but upper level conditions will be favorable for plenty of cloud cover and lingering shower activity through mid-Thursday afternoon.  There will be a fairly significant severe weather threat with this storm system mainly across the Arklatex Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, but dynamics should not be that strong here in Acadiana.  With that being said, some healthy storms may be possible during the very early morning hours Thursday across some of the northern Acadiana Parishes.  We’ll talk more about that tomorrow based on how things shape up.  Lingering cloud cover and moisture Thursday will make it feel quite blustery with breezy north winds and temperatures hard-pressed to make it out of the mid-60s.  As I mentioned yesterday, expect clearing skies for Friday with another gorgeous weekend just about a done deal!  This weekend will bring lots of sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures with highs in th 70s and lows dipping into the mid-upper 40s.

Our gorgeous weather pattern will briefly change mid-week with another good looking weekend anticipated.  A vigorous upper low will roll out of the Rockies this week inducing a Gulf return flow beginning late tomorrow.  Deeper moisture will move into the area Wednesday producing more clouds and the slight chance of a few showers by late in the day.  Healthy upper level dynamics will develop Wednesday night into early Thursday allowing fopr scattered showers and some storms.  The best dynamics for storms, and perhaps some strong/intense activity, should stay north of Acadiana.  The quality of moisture and lower level instability are in question during the late Wednesday through Thursday time-frame, but there should at least be a pretty healthy scatterring of showers and storms in the vicinity of a cool front that will arrive early Thursday.  In fact, the best upper dynamics may follow the front so it may just be showers with embedded thunder possible.  This will be the best chance of precipitation perhaps for the rest of the month so hopefully we’ll see some soaking showers and storms…we do need the rain.  Drier air will infiltrate Acadiana by Thursday afternoon/evening with fair to partly cloudy skies anticipated for Friday.  The weekend into early next week is looking quite favorable once again with lots of sunshine and cool fall temperatures expected again!

This week I had the pleasure of attending the National Weather Association Conference in my hometown of Louisville, KY. Five hundred meteorologists from all over the country were there to talk about major weather events, new technology, and recent research. Meetings went from Monday to Thursday Oct. 13-16th from about 8:00am to 6:00pm each day. During that time weather professionals shared their experiences and findings with the group. It’s an opportunity for weather people to learn about our ever changing climate and weather events. One thing I took away from it was a better understanding of winter weather, a main topic at the conference this year. Snow events and blizzards are something we don’t see too much in Acadiana so it was interesting to hear how other meteorologists deal with it. The pics above come from the NWA Website if you would like to see more.

Our forecast for the week starts off with more sunny skies and comfortable temperatures before a cold front approaches Wednesday. Scattered rain is expected through Thursday before the front moves east and high pressure moves in. High temperatures have been very seasonable with morning lows  well below average. As the humidity increases overnight temps will be closer to normal. Overall, this week will be nothing out of the ordinary with some showers mid-week.

Enjoy it!