KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Much needed cooler air has settled in behing a cold front that moved through Monday. Tuesday night temperatures will dip to the upper 50s! As high pressure re-inforces northerly winds skies will stay mainly clear with only a few high level clouds through the rest of the work-week. Highs look to stay in the mid 80s for a while. Much needed nice weather as we recover from both Ike and Gustav. Northerly winds are helping the coastal flooding to recede. River stages are expected to crest on the Vermilion, Mermentau, and Calcasieu Rivers on Wednesday and Thursday.

The coastal flooding continues to slowly recede back into the Gulf of Mexico.  Just about all reports post Ike have indicated that the coastal surge inundation was equal to or worse than that of Hurricane Rita.  Factoring in Hurricane Gustav 12 days earlier areas in St Mary Parish saw even higher levels with Ike as compared to Rita.  Today the water receded about 3ft but still many areas seeing standing water that will likely take about a week to completely drain back into the Gulf of Mexico.  Once again 5-15ft of water inundated the entire coastal parishes of our state…and there has been very little outside attention due to the devastation in Houston/Galveston and along the upper Texas coast.  But after all is said and done more than 1000 square miles of land has been inundated by the Gulf of Mexico with this storm…and from a personal observation, it appears that we are more vulnerable to storm surges than ever and that coastal erosion has become a big player in the last decade.  This is the second time in three years that a 10-15ft storm tide has penetrated 10-15 miles inland, and in some areas more than 30 miles near Lake Charles.  Obviously there needs to be better protection strategies implemented for our coast as soon as possible while we also need better guidance from storm surge models that still use 1927 land data over SW/SC Louisiana…that in itself is ridiculous!  Enough with the editorial…as for the near term drier, cooler weather and northerly winds will prevail through Wednesday to helps us dry out and recover.  While it’s hard to talk about the tropics at this point, we have to remember that we have another four weeks of prime-time hurricane season for our part of the world and while we don’t seeing anything brewing at this time, the European Model, which has done an excellent job with tropical systems this season, is indicating that there may be some developments in the Bay of Campeche in the week to 10-day time-frame…we hope and pray otherwise.

Although we expected it, it’s still hard to comprehend the massive amount of flooding that has occurred with Ike’s storm tides.   Water has risen to historical levels across Cameron and Calcasieu parishes and has been near equal to that of Hurricane Rita’s inundation across Vermilion, Iberia and St Mary Parishes.  Once again a 10+ft surge has inundated 100′s of square miles.  Like Rita, it will be more than a week in some areas before the water will recede back into the Gulf.  We’ll get some help with a cool front and northerly winds by tomorrow evening.  Before then another round of storms will be likely Sunday and we’re watching for any  lingering tropical squalls tonight.  A tornado watch continues until 200am for northern Acadiana…no rest for the hurricane weary.  My thoughts and prayers to everyone who has to endure these trying times but brighter and drier days are ahead for next week.

Current on air crawl:

FROM THE STORMTEAM3 WEATHER LAB…TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 21MPH…A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BEAUREGARD, ALLEN, EVANGELINE, ST LANDRY AND AVOYELLES PARISHES UNTIL 200AM…STORM SURGE FLOODING IS STILL TAKING PLACE OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL AREAS WITH HIGH WATER INUNDATION LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY…HIGH WATER MAY NOT RECEDE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP TOMORROW EVENING…ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW PRIOR TO A COOL FRONT THAT ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT…STAY WITH KATC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION OR LOG ON TO WWW.KATC.COM…LIVE COVERAGE AFTER THE GAME..

Very little time to write…ongoing tornado and flood issues…here’s are current crawl content…stay tuned for more coverage Saturday morning at 600am…Rob

FROM THE STORMTEAM3 WEATHER LAB….TROPICAL RAINBANDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING…HURRICANE IKE IS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N AND 94.5W OR JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON TEXAS…IKE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH…MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110MPH…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35-55MPH WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST OF ACADIANA IN TROPICAL SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHER CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH…HURRICANE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL PARISHES WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 50-65MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS TO 80MPH…HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74MPH WITH GUSTS TO 95MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FOR CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES…A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF ACADIANA THROUGH 10AM SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL TORNADO WARNINGS LIKELY FOR ACADIANA OVERNIGHT…TIDES REMAIN HAVE DROPPED TO 8FT AT FRESHWATER CITY AND CYPREMORT POINT BUT MAY RISE AGAIN SATURDAY…TIDES AT CALCASIEU PASS CONTINUE TO RISE WITH CURRENT READING ABOVE 11FT…STORM TIDES OF 15-18 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR CAMERON PARISH…COASTAL INUNDATION AND FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WATER SLOW TO RECEDE SUNDAY OR MONDAY…COASTAL FLOODING MAY LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS…STORM SURGE INUNDATION SIMILAR TO THAT OF HURRICANE RITA’S IS EXPECTED IN MANY COASTAL AREAS…HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY WESTWARD INTO TEXAS…TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF ACADIANA…FLOOD WATCHES CONITNUE FOR ACADIANA THROUGH SATURDAY…STAY WITH KATC FOR LIVE UPDATES…

This graphic bullet-points what to expect…it’s looking increasingly like Hurricane Rita for Western Cameron and Calcasieu Parishes perhaps the rest of the coast as well…again get out of the surge zone tonight…I expected 4-6ft of water by morning increasing to 10-12ft tomorrow night…If you live in a coastal parish or nearby below 10ft of elevation this could be a life and domicile threatening storm.  See the elevation maps, wind and futurecast products on our weather page for the latest… Rob

Ike will bring a similar surge to that of Hurricane Rita’s with water rising later tonight with the big rise in storm tides tomorrow night…Evacuate coastal areas by 800-900pm tonight before high tide…this is what we are currently running on air…good luck with the storm…

FROM THE STORMTEAM3 WEATHER LAB…HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY WESTWARD INTO TEXAS…TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF ACADIANA…IN VERMILION PARISH A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 14, INCLUDING DELCAMBRE AND ERATH….A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF CAMERON PARISH, AND THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES, LOW-LYING AREAS, OR WHO HAVE SPECIAL NEEDS IN CALCASIEU PARISH…IN IBERIA PARISH, A MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN ORDERED FOR THOSE LIVING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 AND EAST OF 675….VERMILION PARISH SCHOOLS WILL CLOSE AT NOON TODAY, AND REMAIN CLOSED FRIDAY.  LAFAYETTE, IBERIA, ST. MARTIN, CALCASIEU, CAMERON, ST. MARY, AND JEFF DAVIS PARISH SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED FRIDAY.  UL WILL BE CLOSED ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE IKE IS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N AND 89.4W AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH…MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100MPH AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY…TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS….TIDES WILL INCREASE 4-8 FEET TONIGHT WITH UP TO 8-12 FOOT TIDES POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING….AT THESE LEVELS ALL AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL RECEIVE FLOODING, AND POSSIBLE TIDAL FLOODING SOUTH OF LA 14 IN CAMERON, VERMILION, AND IBERIA PARISHES..STORM SURGE INUNDATION SIMILAR TO THAT OF HURRICANE RITA’S WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN CAMERON PARISH…STAY WITH KATC FOR UPDATES…

Unfortunately Hurricane Ike continues to intensify this evening with pressure dropping at least another 10 millibars in the last few hours.  Ike is on his way back to major hurricane status and a Category 4 is a distinct possibility prior to landfall.  Ike has grown larger with the forecast track getting nudged far enough to the north to warrant tropical storm warnings for the entire Southern Louisiana coastal parishes.  In addition, storm tides will become a major issue especially for Cameron Parish Friday night into Saturday.  The NHC forecast track brings landfall to the mid-Texas Coast near Matagorda Bay (half-way between Houston and Corpus Christi) late Friday night Saturday morning.  There may be some additional track changes which if they go farther north by another 20 miles will have profound impacts, especially in the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area.  A storm surge of 15-20 feet will be possible near and to the north and east where the center of Ike makes landfall which puts much of Southeast Texas in a precarious position.  Meanwhile here in Acadiana do expect breezy conditions increasing tomorrow with gusty easterly winds likely Friday increasing to 25-35mph with higher gusts in some squalls that may head our way (especially coastal parishes).  Gusty E/SE winds near 25-35mph will continue into Saturday with gusts to 40-50mph quite possible in any tropical squalls that develop.  Hopefully most of the weather with this hurricane stays offshore, but that is not likely at this point and very healthy tropical squalls will have alos become more likely for Southwest Louisiana.  Wind conditions will be higher along the coast with frequent wind gusts to 50mph or greater possible late Friday into Saturday.  There could also be a tornado potential Friday through Saturday.  Coastal tidal flooding will be likely for Cameron Parish with water levels increasing to 6-8ft above sea level there.  Farther to the east tides will increase to 4-6ft through St Mary Parish late Friday into Saturday.  And once the water comes in it won’t begin to recede until Sunday.  If Ike becomes stronger than forecast, tidesay go even higher.  While a significant change in the forecast track and intensity is expected…there is not much room for error.  Stay with us…the Weather Lab is back into 24 hour mode…

Another day of question marks as Ike appears to heading toward the Texas Coast but this storm will be close to our coastline Thursday and Friday with the heaviest weather expected to stay offshore at this time.  The hurricane models have shifted a little back to the north while the large scale models have nudged very little.  One global model in particular, the European Model (ECMWF), which did a good job on Gustav, was the first to indicate Ike would be a northwestern Gulf storm late last week, is pointing the storm to the mid-Texas coast with a right-hand turn just after landfall.   The hurricane models have spread more near landfall too.  This indicates that the high sitting over the northern Gulf Coast may not be as strong as advertised yesterday and keeps Houston/Galveston in the mix for major issues while the southwest and coastal part of the state and Acadiana may see tropical storm conditions late Thursday into Friday and quite possibly Saturday.  We really won’t know exactly what to expect from Ike until a definitive 24 hour motion can be established in the Gulf.  So hopefully by this time tomorrow we’ll have a better feel.  Ike will likely intensify back to a Category 3 or 4 by Thursday with the storm leveling off and perhaps decreasing slightly at/before landfall, but Ike will likely be a major storm at landfall.  Based on today’s National Hurricane Center guidance locally breezy conditions will likely develop across Acadiana Thursday with windy conditions likely Friday into Saturday.  Tropical rain squalls will be possible especially across the coastal parishes Friday and Saturday.  While it is way too early to be specific, a storm tide of 4-6ft along the Cameron coastline and a 3-5ft increase at Cypremort Point/Vermilion Bay will be possible and could allow for some coastal flooding.  In addition expect 15-25mph winds developing late Thursday with winds increasing to 20-35mph with gusts to 40-45mph possible in some squalls that may push into the area Friday and Saturday.  If this storm does head northward after landfall there may be a heavy rain and/or tornado threat along with the tropical squall threat especially over the extreme western and coastal parts of the state this weekend.    Don’t be surprised if there will be a tropical storm watch posted for parts of the Louisiana coastline by Wednesday afternoon/evening…stay tuned…

As we try to get our lives and schedules back to “normal” this week in a post-Gustav world, it appears that our normal for now is to watch for another hurricane that will be entering the Gulf by Tuesday night.  The current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center this afternoon remains on the right side of the guidance envelope which has been trending farther to the west and south late this afternoon.  Hopefully this trend will continue.  However, with that be said, we must stay vigilant with this system as the steering currents later this week are still rather nebulous.  A frontal trough will approach our area over the next 24-36 hours first inducing a slight northwestward motion, but the high pressure system re-building following the trough is expected to continue to usher Ike toward the west or west-northwest later in the week and toward the weekend.  Obviously if the forecast track is farther to the south and west later tonight we’ll be looking even better in Acadiana.  But a lot can change over the next 24-36 hours which may profoundly change the future track and intensity forecasts.  The global models continue to indicate that high pressure will be strong enough to usher the core of this system on toward the Texas coast but similar to what we saw with Hurricane Rita the ridge may not be strong enough to keep Acadiana out of the mix with this system yet…again hopefully the trend continues.  Nonetheless, even if this system makes a mid-Texas coast strike there could be a significant storm tide at the very least along our coast and the possibility of heavy tropical showers and perhaps a tornado threat if after landfall this system moves more toward the north.  The latest 18z GFS run really pile-drives this system toward south Texas so perhaps the worst we see is elevated tides on the coast.  As for future intensity of Ike it will be highly dependant on what happens with the structure of this storm over the next 24 hours…we have seen them crumble to disorganized tropical storms and have also seen them maintain hurricane intensity.  The eye is pretty close to the coast so very little to no strengthening should occur until after this system clears Western Cuba Tuesday night.  The Gulf of Mexico should be conducive for intensification with a rapid intensification cycle possible Wednesday into Thursday so per the NHC Ike could regain major hurricane intensity with a 3 likely and a 4 possible…at landfall Ike may be closer to a 3 but that’s still up in the air.   Based on the current trends I may back off a bit on anticipated weather, if any, associated with Ike this weekend…but things can change in a hurry so stay with us for the latest.

Sunday night Hurricane Ike made landfall on eastern Cuba as a category three storm. Ike will spend quite a bit of time in Cuba before emerging into the Gulf. From there computer models are taking the storm anywhere from the Alabama coast to south Texas with Louisiana in the middle of the cone. That cone has shifted further west from previous runs but hopefully the track changes through the week as we recover from Gustav. Ike looks like it won’t make a Gulf landfall until late Friday or Saturday and we’ll have to see if the sub-tropical ridge will curve the hurricane or make it continue westward into Texas. Of course we will get a better feel for the storm maybe toward Wednesday or Thursday.

 Near term weather, high pressure dominates with only slight chances of rain in the forecast as humidity returns. Temperatures will reach into the low 90s each day with lows in the mid 70s. Nothing out of the ordinary there but we unfornately have to put our guard back up for Ike. Keep it tuned!