After nearly a 3 year break from major hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico and on the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew striking Louisiana we are focusing on the possibilities and probabilities associated with Hurricane Gustav.
This afternoon Gustav made landfall over southwestern Haiti and has weakened slightly and may briefly get downgraded to a tropical storm later this evening. However, as I alluded to in yesterday’s blog entry the ridge of high pressure north-northwest of Gustav will try to push this system on a more westerly track over the next few days over water, south of Cuba and into an environment of low atmospheric shear. Therefore Gustav will likely strengthen and per the National Hurricane Center becomes a major hurricane prior to entering the Gulf of Mexico. Given the high oceanic heat content of the water in the Western Caribbean and the southeast Gulf of Mexico a storm stronger than the 120mph sustained winds that are officially forecast are quite possible. The dominant steering factor this week will be a ridge of high pressure that will likely guide this system on a more westerly track over the next few days with a slow curvature around the periphery of the high as we head toward the weekend. Obviously extrapolating the official forecast track beyond 5 days does not bode well for Louisiana, but a lot can change in 5-6 days. But based on today’s data, I would look for this system to follow the NHC track or a little to the south of it through the next 2-3 days then some curvature around the periphery of the high. How much curvature, how will the Caribbean Islands interact with Gustav and how this system releases into the Gulf will be the questions this week. As we head into the weekend the steering currents will be very light across the northern Gulf allowing for any big storm moving at a certain speed and direction to stay in motion…like “a mass in motion that tends to stay in motion” scenario. The bottom line for now is just to stay with us on the future projections, if they remain consistent through Thursday, be ready for a major landfalling hurricane near or in Louisiana by Monday into Tuesday. If one of the GFDL hurricane models is right it may be 12-24 hours sooner. Now is an excellent time to make plans if a serious situation should develop this weekend.