The remnants of Fay brought some healthy tropical squalls yesterday with wind gusts to 40mph and some driving rains, especially across St Martin, Iberia and St Mary Parishes. Fay is drifting ever so slowly to the northeast with the elongated center of circulation late this afternoon between Jackson and Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Rain chances will continue to gradually diminish to 20% or less over the next few days as drier more stable air arrives in the wake of the remnant low. As Fay slowly moves away a new tropical storm has rapidly moved into the meteorological forefront.
Tropical Storm Gustav was upgraded to a depression earlier today and then a storm this afternoon as Hurricane Hunters found up to 67 knot winds at the 925mb flight level. The global and hurricane models are having a hard time with this system as they have been unable to resolve Gustav from an upper trough and another possible tropical low that is northeast of the system. As Gustav makes more distance from that trough there will likely be ample opportunity to strengthen. I would expect the models to begin to perform better tonight but the bottom line is that we may be looking at a significant hurricane threatening the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center brings this system to a hurricane as it moves to the northwest and then turns the system west-northwestward affecting much of Cuba in response to a building ridge north of the system. Interestingly enough, the ridge of high pressure that blocked Fay’s northward motion last week has worked its way southward and will build over Florida and the Bahamas…essentially forcing Gustav to the west. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gustav takes a more southerly track especially when it gets near central Cuba which unfortunately for most of us puts the Gulf of Mexico as the prime target for this system this weekend. We may be fortunate with the ridge to the north forcing this system much farther to the south…but I would not bet on that at this point. The steering currents in our part of the world across the northwestern Gulf will remain light and inviting with Fay leaving a weakness between ridging over the Bahamas and higher pressures to the west. At least Fay’s rains will help cool the near coastal waters across the northern Gulf and make them more turbid which will be a tropical intensity “mitigator” (we hope) within 70 miles of our coast. But Gustav may have major hurricane potential depending on how the Caribbean and Cuba “release” this system toward the weekend. Stay tuned…