KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Obviously I have been tied up with our continuing live coverage, but compared to what we saw possible two days ago, and what intensity Gustav was at yesterday, this storm could have been quite devastating.  It’s still going to be a very bad storm, more than likely worse than any hurricane in decades as we haven’t had one of this magnitude “centerline” Acadiana.  If the forecast track remains true…and there aren’t any indications otherwise, this will go down as a major wind and rain event, with surge mitigated by the parishes east of Acadiana and St Mary Parish…any deviation in the track to the west will produce a significant storm surge so stay with us through the night into Monday.  Expect widespread power outages, numerous trees falling, and some heavy damage in just about anywhere in Acadiana per the crawl we are currently running below…may you be safe during the storm and pray that no one gets hurt…

FROM THE STORMTEAM3 WEATHER LAB… THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES GUSTAV TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE MONDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE LOUISIANA COAST WHILE A HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF ACADIANA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115MPH WITH SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE BY LANDFALL TOMORROW MORNING.  GUSTAV SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATGORY 3 STORM MONDAY.  ON GUSTAV’S CURRENT PATH…TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF ACADIANA AROUND DAWN…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND TOWARD ST MARY PARISH SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH IBERIA AND ST MARTIN PARISHES FOR MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL REACH LAFAYETTE, ACADIA, VERMILION, AND ST LANDRY PARISHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, AND EVANGELINE, ALLEN AND JEFF DAVIS PARISHES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY.  BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE EYE WILL TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 90 NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH LAFAYETTE THEN THROUGH ACADIA, ST LANDRY AND ALLEN PARISHES AS A HURRICANE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 74 MPH. WIND GUSTS IN STRONGEST SQUALLS NEAR THE EYE WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 MPH.  THE FORECAST TRACK MAY CHANGE SO STAY WITH KATC FOR THE LATEST WITH TOP OF THE HOUR LIVE UPDATES.  A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF ACADIANA WITH 10-15 INCH RAINFALLS LIKELY IN MANY AREAS ACROSS ACADIANA THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING CONDITIONS.  TO FIND THE SHELTER NEAREST YOU CALL 211. CONTRAFLOW ON THE INTERSTATES HAS BEEN SUSPENDED AT THIS TIME BUT MAY GO BACK INTO EFFECT DEPENDING ON TRAFFIC FLOW. CURFEW IN ACADIA PARISH FROM DUSK TIL DAWN. CURFEW IN IBERIA PARISH BETWEEN 6PM AND 6AM.  ERATH AND KAPLAN UNDER CURFEW DUSK TIL DAWN TIL FURTHER NOTICE.  CURFEW IN LAKE ARTHUR 8PM TO 6AM. CURFEW BEGINNING 6AM MONDAY IN ST. MARTIN PARISH.  ST LANDRY PARISH CURFEW BEGINNING MONDAY 4PM TIL GUSTAV HAS LEFT PARISH.  CURFEW IN LAFAYETTE PARISH 8PM TO 6AM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LGMC’s LABOR TEAMS A & B SHOULD REPORT TO THE MAIN LOBBY FROM 5:00 am to 7:00 am MONDAY MORNING.  LAFAYETTE PARISH OFFICIALS WILL ESTABLISH EMERGENCY MEDICAL UNITS FOR MINOR MEDICAL NEEDS ON TUESDAY AS SOON AS CONDITIONS ALLOW.
THOSE UNITS WILL BE LOCATED BEHIND THE CAJUNDOME, IN THE PARKING LOT BETWEEN THE HEYMANN CENTER AND LAFAYETTE GENERAL, AND IN THE PARKING LOT OF AZAR EYE CLINIC ACROSS FROM OUR LADY OF LOURDES. ANY MEDICAL PERSONNEL WHO ARE ABLE TO VOLUNTEER FOR THE EMU’S ARE ASKED TO DO SO.  TO VOLUNTEER OR TO GET MORE INFORMATION, CALL 852-8771 OR 288-2694 OR LOG ON TO INFO@LAEMU.ORG.

Unfortunately the National Hurricane Center (NHC) track has not varied much over the last 24 hours and it appears quite prudent that all of us in Acadiana need to prepare for hurricane, perhaps major hurricane conditions developing across the area Monday night.  Based on the latest guidance, Gustav is expected to become a major hurricane this weekend traversing the Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday with tropical storm conditions developing from St Mary Parish by midday Monday moving northwestward covering all of Acadiana Monday evening.  Hurricane conditions with sustained winds increasing over 75mph with gusts exceeding 100mph will be possible along and near where the eyewall makes landfall.  The current forecast track brings the center of the storm through St Mary Parish Monday night through Iberia, St Martin, Vermilion, Lafayette and Acadia Parishes by pre-dawn Tuesday morning with hurricane conditions overspreading all of Acadiana Tuesday.  Hopefully this forecast track will change but based on the information today all of us need to prepare for a severe wind event worse than that of Hurricanes Andrew and Lili.  This storm will likely be on par with Rita but instead of the highest winds confined to the southwest part of the state, all of Acadiana through Alexandria will be vulnerable to sustained hurricane force winds with severe damaging gusts over 100mph.  Due to the uncertainty of exact landfall it is premature to make any kind of surge forecast at this time.  If the ultimate landfall follows the exact path portrayed by the NHC today (which is similar to Andrew’s path in 1992), significant surge issues will be confined to Vermilion Bay eastward (the water came up to 10-14ft in St Mary and Terrebonne Parishes in Andrew)…however…if Gustav’s landfall is just 30-50 miles farther to the west, a very high storm surge, equal to or greater than Rita’s surge will be possible.  We’ll talk more about this as we get closer to landfall.  The bottom line, prepare your home for high winds, rainfall of 10-20” if the storm doesn’t stall and evacuate if and when you are told to do so.  Hopefully this storm weakens somewhat prior to landfall, but it will likely not decrease in intensity like Lili did in 2002. Not that we want to wish the storm on someone else, we have to remember the forecast track this far out could be more than 100 miles off, which would mean big changes in the weather that we would get, but the consistency or the models and the NHC forecast tracks indicates a definite threat to all of Louisiana.  Please stay informed and with KATC through the weekend and the storm for the latest.  Feel free to email me at rob.perillo@katctv.com or any of us in the Weather Lab at stormteam3@katc.com for questions and concerns you may have…however, due to 100’s of daily emails we have been getting already, we can’t readily respond to them, but know we are reading them and will try to respond in kind on air when possible.

Getting your hurricane supplies and establishing a plan of action should be on your agenda tomorrow and early this weekend based on the latest track and intensity forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center late this afternoon. Unfortunately the hurricane models and the NHC agree that there will likely be a significant hurricane threat to most of the Louisiana coastline and Acadiana early next week with an increasing likelihood of tropical storm conditions with gusty winds and rain likely beginning late Monday and continuing into Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday. It’s way too early to call where landfall will be as steering currents are rather dubious early next week. Although Acadiana is in the centerline of the cone today we all have to remember that 100 miles makes a big difference in what kind of weather, wind and possible surge that we may see. Statistically speaking however there is a good chance we will see some weather from this system but how much we won’t be able to accurately answer until later this weekend. For some historical hurricane climatology both Lili in 2002 and Hilda in 1964 came from this general direction while Andrew in 1992 came in on a similar angle along the coast as compared with today’s forecast track. Interestingly enough, even throwing in Rita’s wind event in 2005 all four storms never produced sustained hurricane force winds in Lafayette (but there were peak gusts near 90mph in the parish), but it was exponentially worse for the coastal pariahs of the area. So at the least anticipate the possibility of wind damage and obviously heavy rains early next week. The GFS model insists on stalling this system across the region which could lead to major flooding rains…hopefully this system once it gets moving stays moving. In addition, there is no way we can estimate any kind of potential storm surge but if the current track shifts 50-100 miles farther to the west at landfall then a significant surge would be possible for Acadiana. Based on today’s track surge issues would be confined to Iberia and St Mary Parishes but angle of storm approach is everything. With Hurricane Andrew the surge was significant mainly from St Mary Parish eastward with mostly offshore winds during that event. It’s always better to have a storm paralleling the coast rather than striking on a 90 degree angle as that maximizes the surge potential. A slower moving storm will also be bad news for Eastern Louisiana and New Orleans as easterly storm tides may seriously test the levees. Again it’s too early to say what we may or may not see…but it is most prudent for all of us to be ready, and hope that we miss it all…but that is looking less likely at this time. Some useful links: Get a Game Plan (for preps), Louisiana State Police (for evacuation information, contra-flow and road closures), American Red Cross, FEMA, and KATC Weather Page. Also if things do go downhill KATC plans on partnering with Regent Broadcasting to re-transmit our audio and stream live coverage on the web.

After nearly a 3 year break from major hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico and on the 16^th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew striking Louisiana we are focusing on the possibilities and probabilities associated with Hurricane Gustav.

This afternoon Gustav made landfall over southwestern Haiti and has weakened slightly and may briefly get downgraded to a tropical storm later this evening. However, as I alluded to in yesterday’s blog entry the ridge of high pressure north-northwest of Gustav will try to push this system on a more westerly track over the next few days over water, south of Cuba and into an environment of low atmospheric shear. Therefore Gustav will likely strengthen and per the National Hurricane Center becomes a major hurricane prior to entering the Gulf of Mexico. Given the high oceanic heat content of the water in the Western Caribbean and the southeast Gulf of Mexico a storm stronger than the 120mph sustained winds that are officially forecast are quite possible. The dominant steering factor this week will be a ridge of high pressure that will likely guide this system on a more westerly track over the next few days with a slow curvature around the periphery of the high as we head toward the weekend. Obviously extrapolating the official forecast track beyond 5 days does not bode well for Louisiana, but a lot can change in 5-6 days. But based on today’s data, I would look for this system to follow the NHC track or a little to the south of it through the next 2-3 days then some curvature around the periphery of the high. How much curvature, how will the Caribbean Islands interact with Gustav and how this system releases into the Gulf will be the questions this week.   As we head into the weekend the steering currents will be very light across the northern Gulf allowing for any big storm moving at a certain speed and direction to stay in motion…like “a mass in motion that tends to stay in motion” scenario. The bottom line for now is just to stay with us on the future projections, if they remain consistent through Thursday, be ready for a major landfalling hurricane near or in Louisiana by Monday into Tuesday. If one of the GFDL hurricane models is right it may be 12-24 hours sooner. Now is an excellent time to make plans if a serious situation should develop this weekend.

The remnants of Fay brought some healthy tropical squalls yesterday with wind gusts to 40mph and some driving rains, especially across St Martin, Iberia and St Mary Parishes. Fay is drifting ever so slowly to the northeast with the elongated center of circulation late this afternoon between Jackson and Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Rain chances will continue to gradually diminish to 20% or less over the next few days as drier more stable air arrives in the wake of the remnant low. As Fay slowly moves away a new tropical storm has rapidly moved into the meteorological forefront.

Tropical Storm Gustav was upgraded to a depression earlier today and then a storm this afternoon as Hurricane Hunters found up to 67 knot winds at the 925mb flight level. The global and hurricane models are having a hard time with this system as they have been unable to resolve Gustav from an upper trough and another possible tropical low that is northeast of the system. As Gustav makes more distance from that trough there will likely be ample opportunity to strengthen. I would expect the models to begin to perform better tonight but the bottom line is that we may be looking at a significant hurricane threatening the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center brings this system to a hurricane as it moves to the northwest and then turns the system west-northwestward affecting much of Cuba in response to a building ridge north of the system. Interestingly enough, the ridge of high pressure that blocked Fay’s northward motion last week has worked its way southward and will build over Florida and the Bahamas…essentially forcing Gustav to the west. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gustav takes a more southerly track especially when it gets near central Cuba which unfortunately for most of us puts the Gulf of Mexico as the prime target for this system this weekend. We may be fortunate with the ridge to the north forcing this system much farther to the south…but I would not bet on that at this point. The steering currents in our part of the world across the northwestern Gulf will remain light and inviting with Fay leaving a weakness between ridging over the Bahamas and higher pressures to the west. At least Fay’s rains will help cool the near coastal waters across the northern Gulf and make them more turbid which will be a tropical intensity “mitigator” (we hope) within 70 miles of our coast. But Gustav may have major hurricane potential depending on how the Caribbean and Cuba “release” this system toward the weekend. Stay tuned…

Fay has weakened to a tropical depression but still poses a flooding threat to the southeast. Sunday a line of storms promted a tornado warning for St. Martin and Iberia parishes but we had no reports of damage. Usually the tornado threat is on the eastern side of the storm where the onshore flow causes friction with the land. One of those strong bands rotated all the way around to the western side and we got the heavy rain and wind. The threat of more of those storms continue through Monday evening before the storm lifts to the northeast.

Currently the storm has stalled over Meridian and it’s hard to tell when it will begin to make it’s move. It could be 12 to 24 hours depending on when it gets caught up in a cold front moving across the mid-west. Some rainfall accumulation estimates are up to 3 inches especially on the eastern side of the state closer to the storm.

After Fay lifts north drier air will settle in for a few days and rain chances will be slight. The forecast looks good after Tuesday but temperatures start to warm up into the mid 90s.

Breaking news late this evening…Fay now expected to be a tropical storm through Sunday as the system skirts the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical Storm Watches are now posted through the mouth of the Mississippi which does include New Orleans. Based on this latest information I have raised our rain chances Sunday into Monday and would look for increasing N/NW winds Sunday closer to 20-30mph with gusts possible to 40mph in tropical squalls. It’s still going to be a close call on what kind of weather we’ll actually see but based on the forecast track and given errors so far, it’s best to ere on the side of caution. Stay tuned…

Tropical Storm Fay continues to stay on a westerly course this evening with more intense rainfall across Florida spreading painfully westward. Per the National Hurricane Center Fay will likely stay a minimal tropical storm through Saturday with a gradual weakening process thereafter. Tomorrow will bring another hot and humid day with slight rain chances but we should see a north wind develop by Saturday afternoon. Impacts upon Acadiana from Fay should be limited to breezy conditions Sunday into Monday with tropical rain showers and occasional gusty winds in some of the rain bands that will approach Sunday and Monday.

Of course the forecast could be much wetter if Fay takes a more southerly course compared to the current forecast track so stay tuned for the latest this weekend. It’s also entirely possible that some of us may not see more than a few drops and just a nice breeze depending on Fay’s ultimate path. Fay should become a depression by Sunday but the remnants should hold together at least through Monday with steering currents collapsing again early next week. Interestingly enough some of the models continue Fay westward across northern portions of Acadiana early next week while others grind the remnants to a halt in Mississippi. The GFS model keeps the bulk of Fay to the east of Acadiana with a turn back to the east as the leftover Texas trough may usher it back to the east. This could be quite unfortunate for portions of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle as the heavy rain threat may continue through mid-next week. Currently tropical storm watches have extended to the Mississippi/Alabama border but may be extended through Mississippi into eastern Louisiana later this weekend. Given Fay’s forecast track there may be a tropical storm watch posted as far west as Grand Isle or Morgan City. Stay informed throughout the weekend as slow moving tropical systems can do some weird things and almost always there is a surprising aspect to each tropical system. Based on the aforementioned factors expect breezy north winds near 15-25mph Sunday into Monday with tropical rain showers…a few organized squalls with higher gusts will be possible mainly Monday perhaps Tuesday with activity going back to “normal” summer mode by midweek.

Tropical Storm Fay has begun drifting westward…at about 5 mph. It will be painfully slow and wet for Florida with a daily 5-10” rain or more possible per day over the next several days. Some areas in east-central Florida have received between 20 and 30” with the northern peninsula getting inundated tonight and tomorrow spreading slowly westward through the panhandle this weekend. Two big questions remain: 1- Will circulation center of Fay stay inland after it crosses the peninsula? 2-Will there be any kind of impact in Acadiana? The National Hurricane Center forecast track pretty much parallels the coast just inland allowing for Fay to slowly weaken through tomorrow and remain a soaking depression for several days thereafter. The steering currents will likely collapse again by Sunday allowing for the possibility of major flooding rains anywhere from extreme eastern Louisiana through the Florida panhandle. Given this scenario all we should expect in Acadiana is a healthy northerly breeze to develop Sunday into Monday no worse than 15-25mph winds with a few enhanced tropical rain bands possible during the same time-frame. Now if Fay were to go a little farther south and push a little farther west then we would certainly see a more active scenario, but at this point I would be leaning toward a stall well east (or northeast) of Acadiana…as always stay tuned over the next few days as the forecast could change. In the near term, expect partly sunny, hot and humid conditions Friday and Saturday with highs reaching the lower 90s with scattered afternoon storms still possible.