KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Showers and storms moved in this afternoon about a day sooner than expected. But with the lack of phone calls and emails at the station it seems like they have been welcomed breaks from the heat. Activity will taper off quickly this evening but should fire up again tomorrow and for Saturday as a weak upper disturbance over SE Louisiana drifts westward toward the upper Texas Coast. The heat and humidity will continue Sunday into early next week with a few afternoon storms still in the forecast. The pattern looks to get more interesting for the middle part of next week as a strong tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean will likely push into the Gulf of Mexico. Models have been consistent on dragging part of the tropical moisture with this wave into our part of the world, plus there are some hints there could be development with this feature. In fact, at press time, Hurricane Hunters were again investigating the wave and have just found a broad area of low pressure (at 1009mb) near 13.5N and 68.0W. Some of the hurricane models and the GFDL model in particular, are showing some moderate development as the system heads toward the Yucatan Peninsula and perhaps somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. This system appears to be moving too quickly right now for significant development, but if it slows down, there will ample tropical storm potential. The next named system will be Cristobal, but there may be other competition for development with another disturbance looking more organized off the coasts of Florida and Georgia on the Atlantic side. Stay tuned to KATC for updates on this weather system tomorrow and over the weekend.

Our weather will stay hot and mostly dry over the next few days while the tropics are beginning to get more active, and per the National Hurricane Center, “active for July…” High pressure has settled across the region keeping rain chances in check over the next day or two while a weak upper and surface low over the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico could drift westward this weekend allowing for a better chance of a few afternoon storms but rain chances should be closer to 20% (which is still below summer normal) for the weekend into early next week.

Our best shot of showers and storms may hold off until deeper tropical moisture gets into the Gulf which could be by mid-next week. In fact, the computer models are capturing a tropical wave that is currently over the Windward Islands and bring the impulse close to our part of the Gulf of Mexico by next Wednesday. Hurricane Hunters investigated the wave and an attendant weak area of low pressure this afternoon but did not find that the disturbed weather was a depression, but there will be the possibility of some slow development over the next few days. Since the models put this impulse in the Southern Gulf by mid-next week it will be monitored closely. Elsewhere, another vigorous tropical wave was noted in the Central Caribbean but this system should move toward Central America. Development with this system is possible based on the late afternoon visible satellite imagery, but development should be limited due to the fact the wave will move inland by Thursday night. Nonetheless we’ll keep tabs on this wave too. Finally, Bertha continues to meander as a strong tropical storm in the open Atlantic and will gradually work its way into much cooler waters this weekend.

Drier air has pushed into the region behind a weak frontal boundary that has advanced offshore. So our rain chances will be down over the next several days and with fewer clouds we should have no problem reaching the mid-90s over the next couple of days. Dew points have dropped so expect almost comfortable conditions late tonight into early tomorrow with morning lows dropping into the upper 60s. Higher humidity and slight rain chances will return for later in the week but activity should remain isolated in nature. A tropical wave will likely cross the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend which could engender a better chance of afternoon storms by Sunday. No major changes are foreseen into next week, although I would expect more robust tropical waves in the Atlantic and Caribbean through the next couple of weeks. The wave that is now about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands is looking less organized today while conditions appear more hostile for development over the next few days. Elsewhere, it’s day 13 for tracking Bertha, a strong tropical storm that is now well away from Bermuda. Bertha could briefly become a hurricane again but should die a slow and meandering death in the open Atlantic over the next 5-7 days

As expected it was a hot and dry weekend with storms returning to the area this afternoon. Showers and locally heavy storms have fired-up with a weakening frontal boundary that is slowly dropping southward across Acadiana. Active storms have produced plenty of cloud to ground lightning and torrential downpours with active storms also indicated offshore where Stacey Landry snapped this shot offshore at about 10:15am this morning near the Eugene Island 120 area. Up to seven waterspouts/funnels were spotted out there with 4 visible in this shot. Showers and a few storms will likely linger well into the evening hours with activity dropping off between 10pm and midnight tonight. Drier more stable air will gradually move into the region tomorrow with lingering scattered showers and storms possible mainly across the coastal and western parishes. Mostly hot and dry conditions are then anticipated for mid-week with just a slight chance of an afternoon storm (10%) through Thursday. A few more afternoon storms with deeper tropical moisture will be back into the forecast for Friday through the weekend.

In the tropics, Tropical Storm Bertha has been slowing drifting to the north and should begin to move away from Bermuda tonight. Bertha will probably become a hurricane again for a brief period and will likely be a “track-able” system for the rest of this week as it churns in the open Atlantic. Meanwhile a strong tropical wave that I talked about last week is now accompanied by a weak area of surface low pressure about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. This could become the next system to track. Although models do not strengthen this system appreciably, we can track the impulse heading through the Caribbean and possibly the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico over the next week to 10 days so we’ll keep an eye on this one for sure.

After a sunny weekend the rain chances will return just in time for Monday. A weak cool front will be moving across the state producing scattered showers through the day. Some of that rain may linger through early on Tuesday before clearing in the afternoon. Then sunny skies return for Wednesday and temperatures will heat up again into the mid 90s. Temperatures are expected to trend slightly above average through the work-week.

Bertha has weakend into a tropical storm and stalled for a while before slowly making a northerly turn. There is a new tropical wave we will be watching currenly located 1500 miles east of the windward islands. It has the potential to develop over the next few days but computer models are now keeping that system out  in the Atlantic like Bertha.

It’s going to be a typical hot July weekend for Acadiana as a ridge of high pressure is strengthening and squelching most afternoon shower activity. Although rain chances are down we did see a couple of isolated heavy showers across portions of Lafayette, St Landry and St Martin parishes this afternoon. Aerial coverage today was near 10%, but it covered a good 50% of our population so that’s the way it goes sometimes statistically speaking! Highs this weekend will approach the mid-90s with heat indices reaching 100-105 during the afternoons so please stay hydrated and take breaks from the heat. As you can see by the enclosed chart, we’ll be in the “caution” zone…when temperatures approach the upper 90s and dew points stay in the mid-70s we generally get into the “danger” zone. When we get that hot, we usually will see a “heat advisory” issued by the NWS…fortunately we should stay below that zone, but it’s still going to be quite hot.

In the tropics, Hurricane Bertha has been slowing and turning more to the north but tropical storm conditions may still be possible for Bermuda this weekend. Elsewhere, I keyed in on a tropical wave on our evening newscasts that is in the deep Tropical Atlantic and has begun to detach from the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). I would keep an eye on this wave and perhaps the one that follows as they may head toward the Caribbean and eventually near the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico late next week or the following weekend. Have a good and comfortable weekend!

Acadiana remains under the influence of a typical July tropical airmass with scattered showers and storms once again kicking in as temperatures reached the mid-upper 80s and I would expect more of the same tomorrow. It still appears that high pressure at the surface and aloft will build across the region for Friday into the weekend knocking the rain chances down to 20% or less but allowing for hotter afternoons with highs getting well into the mid-90s. So be ready for probably the hottest and most humid weekend that we have seen thus far this summer with only a slight chance of an afternoon storm Friday through Sunday. The high should drift far enough to the west early next week opening the door for impulses to ride out of the Plains and drop to the Gulf Coast. This usually means hot conditions with later in the afternoon/evening storms that are generally stronger and occasionally severe. With any luck we may see a drier more comfortable day by mid-next week…at this point a little “wish-casting” can’t hurt!

In the tropics, Hurricane Bertha strengthened back to a Category Two storm today with maximum sustained winds back up to 105mph. This system will stay an Atlantic storm but may produce swells that ultimately reach the Eastern Coast of the U.S. this weekend. There are no other major suspect areas at this time.

We have a new week but the same pattern with heat, humidity and scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms. Chances of getting wet will likely stay in the 30-40% range over the next few days but models are indicating that high pressure will strengthen and move more directly over Southern Louisiana late this week into the weekend. This feature should bring our rain chances down to 20% or less while daytime highs push into the mid-90s. Heat indices which have been tolerable so far this summer will begin to approach the 100-108 degree range Friday into the weekend so it will be more important to stay hydrated and to take more breaks if you are out in the heat for any length of time. In the tropics, Hurricane Bertha strengthened to a major storm today with 115mph sustained winds. Fortunately this system will stay an Atlantic storm with the only threat to land limited to Bermuda in about 3 or 4 days. There are a couple of minor tropical waves in the Gulf and Caribbean and it looks to stay rather quiet over the next week in these areas but I would expect to see more active tropical waves toward the latter part of this month.

As we head into the big Fourth of July Weekend expect hot and humid conditions with scattered showers and locally a few heavy thunderstorms. We are back into a typical summer pattern that will more than likely last through much of next week too. I received this picture of a waterspout offshore at Vermilion 356 from earlier today from Shawn Herpin with Palm Energy Offshore. I would expect more of the typical tropical showers and storms offshore again tomorrow with a few waterspouts and a few inland tropical funnels possible with activity that gets cooking quickly during the late morning and afternoon hours. Typically in this pattern we see isolated showers and thundershowers park along the coast late at night and during the early morning hours cells develop and advance inland during the mid-late morning with a few heavy storms likely advancing well inland during the afternoon. Winds aloft will remain quite light allowing for a few torrential downpours and some gusty winds.

This other picture from Denise Broussard who shot this in Henderson came in while I was out of town. This is from some very heavy thunderstorm activity on June 30^th that rapidly collapsed with a large down-rush of colder, dense air producing one heck of a rolling shelf cloud that likely produced epic downpours and very gusty winds. At first I couldn’t believe that the clouds could get that low and look so ominous, and my first thought that the pic was “photo-shopped”, but after getting other pictures from different spots of Acadiana showing the same thing it was obviously real! We may see more wild skies like this in some areas tomorrow and this weekend. Also please remember lightning is the number one weather killer in Louisiana in July so if you see a quickly building shower, head for shelter…and remember when grilling outdoors, keep it outdoors, moving the pit into a garage or poorly ventilated area can produce a dangerous build up of carbon monoxide. And as always, be careful with the fireworks this weekend and make sure the kids are supervised.

After spending more than a week in the beautiful Colorado Rockies I dreaded getting off the plane and returning to our sweltering humidity last night but was pleasantly surprised! Drier, more comfortable air has moved in from the north knocking down the rain chances for a couple of days and bringing our dew points into the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Expect rather comfortable conditions, for July, tonight with lows by morning dropping into the mid-upper 60s. Tomorrow will bring another mostly sunny and quite warm day but once again the humidity should stay on the tolerable side with rain chances staying near 10% or less. Unfortunately a return flow from the Gulf of Mexico will commence late tomorrow into the evening hours with typical summer rain chances returning for Thursday. The pattern will get a little more active for Friday into the weekend with plenty of tropical moisture and daytime heating translating to healthy chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms starting on the 4^th of July, continuing through the weekend and into much of next week, so enjoy our respite from the daily downpours as they will return before long. Rain chances after Thursday should stay at or above normal for at least a week.

In the tropics, moisture by the Yucatan could certainly add to our rain chances by the weekend, while tropical waves are noted mainly in the Eastern Caribbean. Farther to the east, a healthy tropical disturbance has emerged off of the African Coast. While it is a little early for these systems to make it across the Atlantic, its robustness has garnered the attention of the National Hurricane Center so we’ll keep an eye on it too just in case but I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it.

As I mentioned on air this afternoon, I spent some of my time last week and this past weekend at the American Meteorological Society’s Broadcast Conference in Denver. The main topics of this year’s conference dealt with the role that broadcast meteorologists play as the station’s scientist, including the latest topics on global climate change…and as we all know, there is plenty being talked about with this subject…and you’ll hear more from me on the Weather Blog as I gather my notes and thoughts together from this year’s conference.